NBA Search Market: Week 16

Pure Excitement

Amare Stoudemire – With Terry Porter (nearly) fired, it is possible that Stoudemire will no longer be traded. It is also possible that he'll thrive under his new coach. I'd risk it and start him this week. UPDATE: Given the fact that Amare is now reported to be out for the year, things just got a lot less exciting for Amare owners.
Prediction: Stoudemire isn't traded.*

*Will Amare be traded this year? Give it a thumbs up or down.

Rudy Gay – I was hoping that Rudy Fernandez would impress me in the dunk competition. There were low expectations for him going into the contest, but I was hoping he'd surprise, as he is rumored to have a 120 cm vertical leap, which converts to 47 inches. His dunks were okay, but his chances of getting a high score from the judges were hurt for two reasons: 1. Only Pau Gasol cheered after his dunks and 2. He vertical was not even close to being 47 inches. My point? It would have been fun to see Rudy Gay in there instead. Gay's hip flexor makes him a risky play this week. He also might be traded, and if he is he'd probably miss a game or two.
Prediction: If Gay had participated in the slam dunk contest, he wouldn't have missed the same dunk seven times in a row.

Chris Paul – He's back! I may have celebrated the return of Jose Calderon a little too early in a previous column, but you have to feel good about Paul's first game back. And plus, he looked pretty good in the All Star game. Get him in your lineup, pronto.
Prediction: Paul will be injury-free the rest of the season. Did I just jinx him?



Cautious Optimism

This is one of those rare weeks where the news was either really good or really bad, and so there are no players that require cautious optimism this week.



Unmitigated Wariness

Chris Kaman – The term "strained arch" is very misleading and doesn't tell the whole story. Kaman is really dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is a very insidious injury in that it can be very unpredictable. Some people have it for years, while others seem to be able to shake it quickly. Rumor has it that Kaman will return for the final 25 games of the season, but don't expect more than 80% of a typical Kaman output, and be aware that there is a huge likelihood that he aggravates his injury.
Prediction: Kamn plays 8 games before shutting it down for the rest of the season.

Drew Gooden – Tyrus Thomas owners and Joakim Noah owners should start feeling pretty good about Gooden's injury. Gooden owners should start to make other plans. He'll probably decide if he's going to shut it down later this week.
Prediction: Gooden tries to play a few games but ultimately decides he can't play with his injury.

Carlos Boozer – Boozer is rehabbing in Miami. I have little-to-no faith that he returns this year. I believe so strongly in this that I'd pursue Millsap if he weren't banged up himself.
Prediction: Boozer is not fantasy relevant for the rest of this season.

Active Worry

Jameer Nelson – I said last week that you should drop Nelson and move on. Watching Nelson toss a weak, one-handed pass to Dwight Howard during the NBA slam dunk contest only helps my argument.
Prediction: Nelson announces his surgery plans later this week.

Jason Terry – Terry is saying that he will start shooing after the All Star break. Thing is, bone takes five weeks to heal, and so it is highly unlikely that Terry will be back until at least four weeks have elapsed. He was hurt on February 7th, and so my guess is that he comes back in four-to-five weeks, which would be in the March 7th to March 14th range.
Prediction: Terry comes back for the March 10th game against Phoenix.

Mike Dunleavy – I've been pretty down about Dunleavy all season, and I admit that for 18 glorious games (from his owners' perspective), Dunleavy was very useful fantasy-wise. In roughly 27 minutes, Dunleavy averaged 15 points and four rebounds (although he did shoot four percentage points below his career shooting percentage). That ends now. After the All Star break, he'll try to play through pain in reduced minutes. You have to figure that Dunleavy will shoot poorly and have less time on the court to rack up counting stats. UPDATE: Looks like Dunleavy is out for the year.
Prediction: Dunleavy returns for 11 more games, shoots 39% in an average of 23 minutes, and then shuts it down for the year.

Al Jefferson – A torn ACL is one of the many things that I have in common with Jefferson, as we also both like to read, take long naps, and shop at the mall. Everything in the last sentence is made up except for the ACL tear. When I tore mine, the doctor diagnosed it by shaking his head and saying, "It's a shame to see this in someone so young" (I was sixteen at the time). I wanted to tell him that I hadn't died, I'd just gotten my knee shredded. Anyway, that is the same advice I'd give Jefferson fans. It's a shame that it happened to someone who was having such a good season. But he'll be back. It's just going to take 6-9 months of grueling rehab for him to get back to his pre-injury level of ability.
Prediction: My guess is that Jefferson gets his new knee ligament from a cadaver, as this is what most pro athletes do.

NBA Search Market: Week 15

Pure Excitement

Chris Paul – CP3 could return for Monday's game, but my guess is that the Hornets play it safe with Paul and hold him out until after the All Star break. If you are a Paul owner, try to think big picture. Sure, your amazing point guard is missing a few games. But hey, you still are Chris Paul owners, and when he returns in a few games your team will be just fine.
Prediction: Paul doesn't play until after the All Star break. I'm saying this based on no evidence, of course. This is just a prediction. So go with your heart. But my heart says CP3 doesn't play this next week.


Chris Bosh – The Chris' (Bosh & Paul) avoided major injury, while the Andrew's (Bogut & Bynum) didn't. Bosh owners would probably be wise to bench him until after the All Star break.
Prediction: Bosh doesn't play until after the All Star break.


Deron Williams – Nothing to worry about here. After bruising his knee, he returned to post back-to-back 34-point games. Carry on.
Prediction: Remember when Deron's ankle was buggin' him early in the season and he was a weekly fixture in this column? That was real worry. This injury is relatively minor.

Deron, apparently, has been receiving a lot of treatment for his injuries.

Cautious Optimism

Delonte West – When healthy, West is a sneaky-good fantasy player because he does everything medium-well. He won't Jamal Crawford your shooting percentage, for example. Anyway, West's cast is off and while there is no timetable for his return, you'd have to think it will happen at some point in February.
Prediction: West returns on February 22nd for a home game against Detroit.*

*Will Delonte West return before February 22nd? Give it a thumbs up or down.

Unmitigated Wariness

Danny Granger – I really am worried about Granger, but I really don't think that this will turn into a Ron Artest type situation (you know, where Artest plays whenever he feels like it). Some might see the Pacers falling farther out of contention and see that Dunleavy has just re-injured his knee and think that Granger will shut it down. But Granger just doesn't seem the type that would let himself be shut down. He plays through chipped teeth, cut fingers, sore knees. And I think he likes playing in pain. The guy is a fighter. I wouldn't trade Granger. Keep him. Ride him. He will carry you. This is Granger we're talking about. The Batman. In Granger I trust. So that's were I stand. I'm betting everything on Granger. Still not convinced? Did you ever see what his chipped teeth looked like? Check it out here. The dude is a fighter.
Prediction: I'm starting to think this whole Granger-shutdown thing is a complete over-reaction. Right? Please?

Granger admits that his knee is really bothering him.

Drew Gooden – Not looking good. If he has a sports hernia, it could end his season, as a similar ailment recently ended former NBA player Josh Childress' season. Tyrus Thomas owners have to be at least a little happy about this development, as Thomas has played well with Gooden out of the lineup.
Prediction: More concrete information about Gooden will come after the All Star break.

Active Worry

Jameer Nelson – Drop him and move on. Not everyone will agree with this advice, but I get pretty aggressive when it comes to major injuries to players in the second half of the season. Why wait until you are certain that Nelson is out for the year if waiting means you'll miss out on a waiver wire pickup? Anyway, the most likely scenario at this point is that Nelson is out for the year. The second-most likely scenario is that he pulls an Elton Brand and teases you for a few weeks before going under the knife. It's over. Tyronn Lue wasn't brought in because Nelson's outlook is a positive one. Sessions or Conley anyone?
Prediction: I feel pretty confident in saying that Nelson is out for the year.

Andrew Bynum – Honestly, I'm confused. Is he going to be back in 8-12 weeks or is he going to be back in 5 weeks? My guess is that he's not going to help anyone fantasy-wise this season. Still, I'm holding out hope. I'm not sure why I'm holding out hope for Bynum but have zero hope for Nelson, but that's the way it is. Hopefully there will be a less confusing update on this situation in the near future.
Prediction: I still don't have a good feeling about this one. I'm thinking this is going to be one of those "might be back for the playoffs" type injuries.

Everything you could ever want to know about MCL injuries. Maybe this will help to clear up some of the confusion.

Elton Brand – Not much to say about Brand. He's done. The only thing I'll add is that Brand recently donated shoes to a charter school run by a friend of mine. So that was nice. I'll stop before this starts to sound like a eulogy.
Prediction: Brand will probably be super cheap to draft next year.

More Elton Brand eulogy.

Is Brand better than Kobe?

Andrew Bogut – It's been a rough week injury-wise, hasn't it? On my team, my top three draft picks missed games due to injury this week. Bogut is out with a back fracture. I put him in the Nelson category: slight hope, but even if he does play, he's probably not going to help your team soon enough, or even enough, to be worth waiting on him. Cut him loose and move on.
Prediction: Bogut will probably be pretty cheap to draft next year.

Bogut's blog: he'll be playing a lot of poker over the next two months and no basketball.

NBA Search Market: Week 14

Pure Excitement

David West – West returned after missing five games with back spasms to score 12 points and grab 15 rebounds.
Prediction: West, who is currently averaging 19.7 points per game, plays even better for the rest of the year and ends up averaging over 20 points a game for the season.



Cautious Optimism

Zach Randolph – I dislike Randolph and his out-of-shape ways and so I avoid in him at all costs. That said, he’s been pretty freaking good this year. There is some discrepancy about when he’ll come back from his injury, but it sounds like it is going to be sooner rather than later. My guess is his knee is fine, but that he’s way out of game shape. Which brings me back to my first point: I dislike Randolph and his out-of-shape ways.
Prediction: Zach returns mid-February and immediately returns to throwing up 22 points and 11 rebounds a game.

Shawn Marion – He’s missed five games and counting. I’m still tempted to trade for him, mostly because this recent iteration of Marion—which I’m going to call “Bad Marion”—is still valuable in fantasy.
Prediction: I’m sticking with my prediction from last week: Marion is traded to the Toronto Raptors before February 10th.

Some local dirt on Marion’s groin.

Marcus Camby – Sometimes I get the impression that Camby can block shots with one arm tied behind his back. He back and he’s starting again, so hopefully he’ll remain healthy for the rest of the year. Here is my take on Camby: if your team is stinking it up, see if you can get Camby at a below-market-value rate and pray he stays healthy. Other than that, I’d try to avoid him. In related news, DeAndre Jordan’s value has completely disappeared.
Prediction: Camby misses a few games here and there with small injuries but plays like a top ten pick when he does play.

Marcus Camby is a hovercraft.

Mike Conley and Ramon Sessions – I’m not particularly excited about either one of these guys. In twelve-team leagues, they’re certainly helpful, but in smaller leagues I think they both are fools-gold-ish. Why? Because both of these players don’t do a lot of things: they don’t shoot threes, they don’t shoot over 44%, they don’t block shots, they aren’t great free throw shooters, and they aren’t that great at getting steals. Still, when they get minutes, they can produce. I like Sessions more because I’ve seen him raise his game and be great, like he did at the end of last year. I’ve never really seen Conley play well in the pros. Maybe he will now that he’s starting.
Prediction: Sessions will be more valuable than Conley from now until the end of the season.*

*Will Sessions be more valuable than Conley? Give it a thumbs up or down.

Unmitigated Wariness

Danny Granger – Is there a tougher man in the NBA? I know, I know. I also get annoyed when certain players are given the “tough” label as it is often a way for TV announcers to fill a particular story line. For example, I’m currently watching the Super Bowl and the announcers keep talking about how Hines Ward is the toughest player in the NFL. I don’t know. It just annoys me. And yet, here I am calling Granger tough. You see, I’m a Granger owner, and the guy plays through everything: broken teeth, split finger, sore knee. So I respect him for that. But sheesh, I’m getting a little sick of this 6-for-17 business. This knee thing has me very, very worried.
Prediction: My worry is a complete over-reaction. He’ll be fine, starting as early as this week.

Gerald Wallace – I’ve never collapsed a lung, but I have broken a few ribs. I know looking online is never a good idea when it comes to answering medical questions, but according to my online research, it will take Wallace two weeks to heal from his collapsed lung. The ribs are trickier. Mine made me feel like an old man for about two weeks (getting into and out of bed was a huge struggle) but after that they didn’t feel all that bad most of the time. Thing is, the injury lingers. You think they’re gone, and then you reach into your closet to get a shirt off a hanger and suddenly you feel a sharp pain in your ribs. And no matter how strong you are, it takes humans five weeks for bone to heal. So things are not looking good for Wallace. That said, professional sports players are complete freaks, and sometimes they come back from injuries much faster than mere mortals can. For example, NFL running back Marion Barber broke some ribs and came back seven days later. He led his team out of the tunnel before the game, and the camera caught him screaming and banging his ribs with his fist. He played in that game without a flak jacket. Crazy.
Prediction: Wallace misses all of February. He returns in March, but his stats are slightly lower because he isn’t quite able to play with the same aggression due to his intermittently tender ribs.


Active Worry

Andrei Kirilenko – Matt Stroup wrote an awesome piece for his Roundball Stew column in which he discussed how much it sucks when your league-mates don’t respond to your trade offers. This is happening to me in one of my leagues. Initially I was upset that the owner wouldn’t respond, but in hindsight I’m less upset, as the player I was trying to trade for was Kirilenko.
Prediction: The debate isn’t how long Kirilenko will be out, but whether or not he can be valuable if he does returns. I say no.

Andrew Bynum – His coach is saying that he’s going to be out “quite a while.” Yikes. The results from his MRI should be back late Monday night. Let’s wait for that MRI before we really freak out. In the meantime, it’s okay to be actively worried.
Prediction: I don’t have a good feeling about this one. I’m thinking this is going to be one of those “might be back for the playoffs” type injuries.