NBA Search Market: Week 11

Predictions are, in a word, dumb. They also are misleading, silly, and potentially irresponsible. And yet, for some strange reason, I feel compelled to make them about nearly everything.

Here are ten predictions:

Pure Excitement

Devin Harris – After missing three of his last four games due to a hamstring injury, Harris practiced on Sunday without issues and appears to be on track to be in the starting lineup for Monday's game against OKC.
Prediction: Harris returns and stays healthy for the rest of the season, averaging 21 points and 6.5 assists on 44% shooting.

Brandon Roy – After missing four games with an injury, Roy returned to score 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists. He has a four-game week this week, so you should get him into your lineup.
Prediction: Roy, who finished last season with fifth-round value, will finish the 2008 – 2009 season with top thirteen value.

Basketball Jones marvels at Brandon Roy's 52-point outburst.

Roy's game-winning three makes the top ten plays of this season (so far).

Cautious Optimism

Mike Dunleavy – Two games. Dunleavy has only been back for two measly games. And yet, I'm itching to pretend like I know exactly what he'll do for the rest of the season now that I've watched him play in two games. Amazingly, Dunleavy has nearly mirrored his great stats from last year in his first two games even though he has been playing fourteen fewer minutes. His return, unquestionably, has been impressive.

When Dunleavy was hurt, the only question was whether or not he'd play this season, and if so, when. Now that he's playing again, we have all sorts of questions: Can Dunleavy stay healthy? How soon will Dunleavy by playing over thirty minutes per game? Will he duplicate his stats from last year or will he be more like the player he was during his first six years in the league? As a Dunleavy owner, you have a choice: you can choose to believe or you can choose to doubt.
Prediction: For his first ten games back, Dunleavy will play well and average 20 points a game in 25 minutes of play. In his eleventh game, his injury issues will crop back up and he'll be forced to shut it down.*

*Note: Take this (and all) predictions with a grain of salt. I'm the same guy who predicted that Dunleavy wouldn't come back this year. I also said last week that if he does come back, he would struggle to be even half as good as he was last year. I don't know why I have it out for Dunleavy.

Mike Dunleavy is impersonated: "Dunleavy wasn't at the game, but that didn't stop his teammates from cracking few jokes. One player asked me if I had talked to him before the game. I looked toward his locker and there was a mop turned upside down with a shirt over top of it as if that was Dunleavy. At least the players are staying loose despite their lack of victories."

*Will Dunleavy miss any more time this season? Give it a thumbs up or down.

Nenad Krstic – Last week, 83% of you thought Nenad would be better than 14 points, 7 rebounds. Nenad has played in three games so far and now seems like as good a time as any to completely overanalyze his stats for those three games. After all, everyone likes to have fun with small sample sizes. But before we do that, let's enumerate the things we know: 1. Krstic's coach has said that Nenad has "earned" more minutes and is picking up the playbook "quickly." 2. Chris Wilcox (DNP-CD in his last game) is not currently in the rotation. 3. Despite never averaging over 0.9 blocks per game in his career, Krstic is currently averaging 2.0 blocks in his first three games.
Prediction: It will take Krstic ten games before he's playing over 30 minutes, but once he hits the thirty minute mark, he'll average 16 points on 48% shooting, along with six rebounds, and 1.2 blocks. However, his assists and steals totals will be so minuscule that they will not be able to be seen by human eyes.

Nenad has a new nickname: "Krispy."

Dr. Steve on Nenad.

Here comes Nenad.

Rob Mahoney on Nenad: "Dude can play." Also: "Old news by now, but Nenad Krstic has made his triumphantly awkward return back to the States…"

Anthony Bogut – Bogut returned after missing four games with back spasms. I get the sense that many Bogut owners are quietly disappointed with his production so far this year.
Prediction: You will trade for Bogut and then be thankful you did when he maintains his current production in all his stats except blocks, which he increases to 1.5 blocked shots a game for the rest of the season.

"Did you know that last night was the first time in nearly two years that the Bucks have won a game when Andrew Bogut was not playing? I did not know that. But I am guessing that the Bucks' owners and executives will know that well, because Bogut's agent won't be letting them forget."

Unmitigated Wariness

Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is another player that I have soured on. But in his case, I know exactly why: I own Andrea Bargnani, and The Bargster only seems to only play well when O'Neal is not on the court. For this reason, I'm really hoping O'Neal continues to take his sweet time to come back from his swollen knee.
Prediction: O'Neal pulls a Carlos Boozer and misses most of the rest of the season. Ah, I don't really think that. But it would be nice if he did and if eternal tease Bargnani continued his recent resurgence.

O'Neal to play with second team? "While it's not as if the Raptors can disregard the veteran centre's averages of 14 points and seven rebounds a game, the continued improvement of Andrea Bargnani in the starter's role alongside Bosh seems to suggest allowing O'Neal to be the focus of the second unit would be most profitable for all concerned."

O'Neal says Toronto is stuck in losing loop: "Jermaine O'Neal feels like the Raptors are stuck in a never-ending loop, not unlike what unfolded in the movie Groundhog Day."

Monta Ellis – Ellis is in the "end stage" of his rehab and recently participated with the team.
Prediction: Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year.

"I've said that I don't think Ellis will ever play for the Warriors again"

Baron Davis – When someone suffers a bruised "tailbone" it is tempting to make jokes. But Baron's tailbone injury is no longer funny. He's already missed five games and doesn't seem likely to return anytime soon. Incidentally, the only thing dumber than making a prediction about a player's performance is to try to predict when a player will come back from injury.
Prediction: Baron returns after missing twelve more games. He shoots under 40% from the field in every single month of the season and every owner who drafted him wonders, during the quiet hours of the night, if they have bad fantasy basketball instincts.

BoomDizzle (AKA Baron Davis) challenges you.

Baron Davis and Steve Nash are related.

Active Worry

Marquis Daniels – The proof that I don't really believe my own Dunleavy prediction is that I've put Daniels in the "active worry" section. Truth is, Marquis hurt his groin at the worst possible time, as it prevents Daniels from continuing to get the minutes he "earned" with his good play when Dunleavy was out of the lineup. Even if Daniels does come back quickly, as long as Dunleavy is healthy enough to get at least fifteen minutes a game, Daniels will be worthless is most leagues.
Prediction: Even though there is talk about the Pacers going with a small starting lineup that includes Daniels, you will see a player you like on the wire and decide not to play things safe and you'll drop Daniels to pick up someone else and never look back.

Darius Miles – The 27-year-old Miles has no fantasy value, but if you are a fan of the Portland Trailblazers, the fact that Memphis is going to completely (and intentionally) screw over Portland is totally not cool, but totally legal. Rotoworld's own Ryan Knaus, who lives in Portland, is looking especially smart for being a Sonics fan.
Prediction: Miles plays in exactly two games for Memphis (one minute each game) before being cut. Miles never plays basketball in the NBA ever again.

Henry Abbott is a Blazer fan and is not worried.

Getting more mileage out of the Miles saga.

Is Miles one of the top 300 basketball players in the world?

NBA Search Market: Week 10

Pure Excitement

Kevin Martin – Martin has gone from “active worry” to “pure excitement” in two weeks. After missing 22 of 24 games, Martin returned to post 20, 20, and 45 points in his three games since last week. All talk about Martin’s ankle still being sore has ended. I, for one, did not see this coming. Part of me wants to pretend like I’m only cautiously optimistic just to seem less surprised by Martin’s sudden return, but truth is, Martin is playing so well I can’t be anything but excited about his prospects. Congrats to those owners who knew better.

Not relevant to this week’s top ten players but certainly worth the read.

Brandon Roy – After watching Boozer need surgery on his “sore” quad, it is understandable if Roy owners are worried when they hear Roy has a sore hamstring. As of now, there is no reason to think that Roy’s hamstring will keep him out more than 7-10 days. If you don’t own Roy, see if you can use the injury as an opportunity to buy low.

Basketball Jones marvels at Brandon Roy’s 52-point outburst.

Roy’s game-winning three makes makes the top ten plays of this season (so far).

Cautious Optimism

Mike Dunleavy – Can you believe it? After being listed in the “Active Worry” section for the first nine weeks of the season, there is actually cause to be cautiously optimistic about Dunleavy. His coach, seemingly out of the blue, stated at the beginning of this month that Dunleavy would be playing in games “in a week or so.” Now is probably the time to start speculating about what sort of stats Dunleavy will contribute once he does return. Personally, I think it would be unwise to expect him to contribute half as many stats as last year in half as many minutes for any games he plays in January and February.

Mike Dunleavy is impersonated: “Dunleavy wasn't at the game, but that didn't stop his teammates from cracking few jokes. One player asked me if I had talked to him before the game. I looked toward his locker and there was a mop turned upside down with a shirt over top of it as if that was Dunleavy. At least the players are staying loose despite their lack of victories.”

Nenad Krstic – When I first heard that Krstic was returning, I thought, “so what?” He was only averaging 12.8 points in Russia and since his solid 2005-2006 season, he’s had ACL knee surgery. Then I realized that my fantasy basketball team need some help and so I gave Krstic the fullbody patdown, and here is what I came up with:

Krstic is a nice low risk prospect. As for his oft-quoted “only 12 ppg” Russian League numbers, it is important to put that twelve-points-per-game number in context: the Russian league plays 40 minute games, not 48 minute games, and Krstic was only getting 20 minutes / game, which isn't all that unusual, because the minutes are supposedly more evenly distributed in the Russian league. Also, there is some rule about having a minimum number of Russian players on the floor at any given time (and Nenad is Serbian). So, the Russian league numbers are supposedly not necessarily indicative of how he'd do in the NBA. While 14/7 seems like a fairly conservative estimate for his stats, he could also go Diaw or Millsap on us and throw up number well above what anyone is predicting now.

Here comes Nenad.

Rob Mahoney on Nenad: “Dude can play.” Also: “Old news by now, but Nenad Krstic has made his triumphantly awkward return back to the States…”

*Will Nenad Krstic be better than 14 points 7 rebounds? Give it a thumbs up or down.

Paul Millsap – The three best waiver wire pickups in many leagues have been Millsap, Boris Diaw, and Rodney Stuckey, and maybe in that order. After missing three games with a PCL injury in his knee, Millsap returned to post his 17th straight double-double performance. Simply put, Millsap has been amazing this year. But in the back of your mind, you have to wonder what sort of minutes he’ll get if/when Carlos Boozer returns. Does this make Millsap a sell high and Boozer a buy low? Not for me. I’d rather have Millsap’s sweetness now and worry about Boozer later.

Boozer’s backup’s backup isn’t bad either: “One guy to watch off the bench is rookie Kosta Koufos, who is getting just 15 minutes or so a game but has looked good the couple times I have caught a Jazz game, particularly on offense where he is very polished.”

A stat error helps Millsap keep his double-double streak alive.

Caron Butler – The only reason Butler made the top ten most searched list this week is that he missed three games with an injured ankle. He returned on Friday and should be fine going forward.

Mike Miller – After missing five games with an injured ankle, Miller returned to score a combined 11 points in his last two games on 2-for-8 shooting. Miller claims his ankle is still sore, but is “good enough to play on.” For owners looking for Miller to return to his 2007-2008 season level of play, pray for him to get completely healthy, six more shots per game, and six more minutes a game. My guess is that he only accomplishes one of those three things this season.

Unmitigated Wariness

Jermaine O’Neal – O’Neal is one of those players that some fantasy owners see as sneaky good, and others see as damaged goods and someone to avoid at all costs. Some, it seems, firmly believe that O’Neal’s 20 points, 10 rebound efforts of yesteryear will suddenly reappear. With each passing month, however, it is increasingly likely that February of 2006 will mark the last month in which O’Neal will average 20/10. At this stage of his career, O’Neal, who just turned thirty years old two months ago, appears to have a ceiling of 14/7. Whatever you believe, you have to be concerned any time O’Neal experiences an injury. He’ll probably miss a few more games and then be back posting his usual spotty performances.

O’Neal says Toronto is stuck in losing loop: “Jermaine O'Neal feels like the Raptors are stuck in a never-ending loop, not unlike what unfolded in the movie Groundhog Day.”

Active Worry

Carlos Boozer – Knife day for Boozer is January 9th. He’s schedule to return sometime in February, but after all the waiting around for Boozer’s “strained” quad to heal, it is understandable if Boozer owners think all Boozer-related timetables are hogwash. Whatever you do, don’t drop Boozer in frustration. You do, howver, have two legitimate Boozer options: sell him to an owner that is high up in the standings by saying that Boozer will give them a huge boost during the last month of the regular season and into the fantasy playoffs—by selling him this way, you might still be able to get top 50 value for him. Alternately, you can hold onto him and pray. Essentially, you can decide to keep your headache or give it to someone else. I’m giving mine to someone else.

Gilbert Arenas – Every time Arenas sneezes, thousands of Rotoworlders search for him on Rotoworld. The latest news is that Arenas says he needs about a month and a half of practice to get into game shape. That means that if Arenas doesn’t start practicing by early February, he probably won’t be useful to fantasy owners this year. So start the countdown: 30 days until Arenas is rendered completely irrelevant this season.