Kevin Martin – Martin has gone from “active worry” to “pure excitement” in two weeks. After missing 22 of 24 games, Martin returned to post 20, 20, and 45 points in his three games since last week. All talk about Martin’s ankle still being sore has ended. I, for one, did not see this coming. Part of me wants to pretend like I’m only cautiously optimistic just to seem less surprised by Martin’s sudden return, but truth is, Martin is playing so well I can’t be anything but excited about his prospects. Congrats to those owners who knew better.
Brandon Roy – After watching Boozer need surgery on his “sore” quad, it is understandable if Roy owners are worried when they hear Roy has a sore hamstring. As of now, there is no reason to think that Roy’s hamstring will keep him out more than 7-10 days. If you don’t own Roy, see if you can use the injury as an opportunity to buy low.
Cautious Optimism
Mike Dunleavy – Can you believe it? After being listed in the “Active Worry” section for the first nine weeks of the season, there is actually cause to be cautiously optimistic about Dunleavy. His coach, seemingly out of the blue, stated at the beginning of this month that Dunleavy would be playing in games “in a week or so.” Now is probably the time to start speculating about what sort of stats Dunleavy will contribute once he does return. Personally, I think it would be unwise to expect him to contribute half as many stats as last year in half as many minutes for any games he plays in January and February.
Nenad Krstic – When I first heard that Krstic was returning, I thought, “so what?” He was only averaging 12.8 points in Russia and since his solid 2005-2006 season, he’s had ACL knee surgery. Then I realized that my fantasy basketball team need some help and so I gave Krstic the fullbody patdown, and here is what I came up with:
Krstic is a nice low risk prospect. As for his oft-quoted “only 12 ppg” Russian League numbers, it is important to put that twelve-points-per-game number in context: the Russian league plays 40 minute games, not 48 minute games, and Krstic was only getting 20 minutes / game, which isn't all that unusual, because the minutes are supposedly more evenly distributed in the Russian league. Also, there is some rule about having a minimum number of Russian players on the floor at any given time (and Nenad is Serbian). So, the Russian league numbers are supposedly not necessarily indicative of how he'd do in the NBA. While 14/7 seems like a fairly conservative estimate for his stats, he could also go Diaw or Millsap on us and throw up number well above what anyone is predicting now.
Paul Millsap – The three best waiver wire pickups in many leagues have been Millsap, Boris Diaw, and Rodney Stuckey, and maybe in that order. After missing three games with a PCL injury in his knee, Millsap returned to post his 17th straight double-double performance. Simply put, Millsap has been amazing this year. But in the back of your mind, you have to wonder what sort of minutes he’ll get if/when Carlos Boozer returns. Does this make Millsap a sell high and Boozer a buy low? Not for me. I’d rather have Millsap’s sweetness now and worry about Boozer later.
Caron Butler – The only reason Butler made the top ten most searched list this week is that he missed three games with an injured ankle. He returned on Friday and should be fine going forward.
Mike Miller – After missing five games with an injured ankle, Miller returned to score a combined 11 points in his last two games on 2-for-8 shooting. Miller claims his ankle is still sore, but is “good enough to play on.” For owners looking for Miller to return to his 2007-2008 season level of play, pray for him to get completely healthy, six more shots per game, and six more minutes a game. My guess is that he only accomplishes one of those three things this season.
Unmitigated Wariness
Jermaine O’Neal – O’Neal is one of those players that some fantasy owners see as sneaky good, and others see as damaged goods and someone to avoid at all costs. Some, it seems, firmly believe that O’Neal’s 20 points, 10 rebound efforts of yesteryear will suddenly reappear. With each passing month, however, it is increasingly likely that February of 2006 will mark the last month in which O’Neal will average 20/10. At this stage of his career, O’Neal, who just turned thirty years old two months ago, appears to have a ceiling of 14/7. Whatever you believe, you have to be concerned any time O’Neal experiences an injury. He’ll probably miss a few more games and then be back posting his usual spotty performances.
Active Worry
Carlos Boozer – Knife day for Boozer is January 9th. He’s schedule to return sometime in February, but after all the waiting around for Boozer’s “strained” quad to heal, it is understandable if Boozer owners think all Boozer-related timetables are hogwash. Whatever you do, don’t drop Boozer in frustration. You do, howver, have two legitimate Boozer options: sell him to an owner that is high up in the standings by saying that Boozer will give them a huge boost during the last month of the regular season and into the fantasy playoffs—by selling him this way, you might still be able to get top 50 value for him. Alternately, you can hold onto him and pray. Essentially, you can decide to keep your headache or give it to someone else. I’m giving mine to someone else.
Gilbert Arenas – Every time Arenas sneezes, thousands of Rotoworlders search for him on Rotoworld. The latest news is that Arenas says he needs about a month and a half of practice to get into game shape. That means that if Arenas doesn’t start practicing by early February, he probably won’t be useful to fantasy owners this year. So start the countdown: 30 days until Arenas is rendered completely irrelevant this season.
