NBA Search Market: Week 5

The fate of Marbury Version 2008-2009 might be decided on Monday. My response: there is no evidence that anyone should care. Yes, I know he's averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career, but I refuse to believe that he will ever gain fantasy relevance, and you should only pick him up in the deepest of leagues. If you are deciding between Marbury and Goran Dragic, fine. But if you are deciding between Marbury and anyone else, pick up anyone else instead. Not to be overly flip, but part of me is hoping that Marbury shoots himself in the leg sometime this week.

To prove my point, I want to once again look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:

 
Player  FG%   FT%   3PTM  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK  TO
A       41.9  71.6  1.2  13.9  2.5  4.7  .9  .1  2.0
B       39.4  71.5  1.9  13.1  3.5  5.3  1.3  .2  2.2

Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer "Skip To My Lou" Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury lands on a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn't rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn't out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That's not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy?

Marbury to the Suns or the Spurs?

The latest Marbury zingers.

The Knicks might pay to make this Marbury creep go away.

"Are you going to get in the truck?"

"One day I might be able to buy the Knicks."

The Lingering Injured

Kevin Martin and Mike Dunleavy – If someone in my league were to drop Dunleavy, I wouldn't drop the worst guy on my team's bench to pick Dunleavy up. His injury is being now being called "serious" and there is still no timetable for his return. If Dunleavy is on your team, one strategy would be to drop him and then monitor his status closely so you can be ready to pick him up in the unlikely event that we get some good news regarding his injury and/or return.

Martin has now missed twelve games, but he claims that he's going to try to play on Tuesday of this week. Bench him until he proves that he is healthy.

More on Dunleavy's knee.

The Latest Wounded

Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley – Mobley (heart) should be back this week while Boozer (quad) will miss at least one more week. I'm curious to see how Mobley fits in with the Knicks. If the Knicks keep scoring a billion points a night, Mobley could have value. If he starts at shooting guard, fifteen points a game and two three pointers might be the best you get from him, although ten points and one three pointer per game feels more likely.

Proof of Concept

Deron Williams, Michael Redd, and Jason Richardson – All three of these players have recently played in "Proof of Concept" (PoC) games. They're back, and they are better than ever.

Well, not quite. Williams says his ankle might bother him all year, and so he looks like he might become more of a 10 point, 12 assist guy. Still good, but just know that he might not score as many points as in the past. Think of him more as a Deron mutant who is good but has slightly different strengths. (Maybe we should call him Darin or Darren until he returns to his old self.) Deron still needs to prove that his ankle can stand up to the rigors of playing three or four games a week. You should have your answer by this time next week.

After a long wait, Redd owners were rewarded with a 20-point effort. Plug and play.

After missing seven games, Richardson is back, and he played his usual messy style of game on back-to-back nights. But I must confess that every player on Charlotte and Golden State worries me, and Richardson is no exception. I dislike being at the whim of Larry Brown and/or Nellie, and I have been trying to trade every player I own who is on either team. Perhaps this is overly neurotic. Fine. Speaking of fine, Richardson should be fine going forward, so you can get him into your starting lineup.

Career High In Points

Eric Gordon – Gordon gets two weeks (or more) to prove himself now that Ricky Davis out with a busted knee. Does that mean your knee-jerk reaction should be to pick him up? Yes, actually. Although, the hamstring injury that Gordon sustained in his Nov. 29th game is some cause for concern.

Since Gordon's injury doesn't seems serious, I'm going to discuss his value as if it doesn't exist. Before the NBA season started, some scouts considered Eric Gordon to be, at best, a rich man's Ben Gordon. His worst-case scenario? Shannon Brown. Let's assume he's closer to 80% of a Ben Gordon until further notice.

Is Eric Gordon about to become Baron Davis' new Monta Ellis?

Eric Gordon isn't used to sitting.

Eric Gordon scout drool.



A New Starter

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook helped the Thunder break a fourteen-game losing streak in his first start. However, before you pick Westbrook up, it is important that you set reasonable expectations for his near-term production. The rookie is shooting 34.9% from the field and he's not exactly prolific from behind the three-point line (0.4 made per game), and he turns the ball over 2.4 times a game in the 27 minutes per game he's been playing so far this year. In college, he only shot 68.5% from the free throw line and only 35% from behind the college three-point line, and he turned the ball over 2.5 times a game. He only had seven blocks in his entire final college season. Think of him as a sexier Rafer Alston who doesn't hit threes. Sorry, did that comparision just kill your enthusiasm? Don't dispair, as there is plenty to like. Here are the stats that are for real: rebounds, assists, and steals. As a starter getting 35 minutes a game, he might average 15 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Just realize that the FG% could remain low, the FT% might dip below 80%, he doesn't take many threes, and his turnovers will increase with more playing time. He could also lose the job, as his coach his said his promotion is "not set in stone." His next game is Wednesday of this week.

Some Westbrook scout drool.

Is Westbrook a higher scoring version of Rajon Rondo?

Westbrook's college stats.

Westbrook can certainly dunk with authority.

FreeDarko on Westbrook's upside: "Westbrook just has insane Dwyane-Wade-like upside and is fast becoming my favorite player in the league."

NBA Search Market: Week 4

I have a friend who can high jump two meters. She can high jump over Ben Wallace, even with his ‘fro out. The question she is most frequently asked is if she can dunk a basketball (she can’t). When she explains that she can’t, the asker often does not believe her and suggests it might be merely a matter of hand size and asks if she can dunk a tennis ball (she can’t).

Another friend of mine is excellent at math and is currently working as a mathematician. New acquaintances, he says, first groan when they hear what he does for a living, and then they say, “I’m horrible at math.” Sometimes they follow this up by stating how far along they progressed in the math world (I never made it past calculus, they might say to him).

A 6’ 8” friend of mine is repeatedly approached by complete strangers who ask him, “you ball?” (He does, sort of: volleyball.)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is frequently asked to sign his father’s memorabilia. Can you imagine if every day of your life someone stuck your dead father's hat or a shirt in your hand and asked you to sign it?

I once got into a cab in New York City and was surprised to see that the cab driver was female. While a small part of my brain knew that I shouldn't reference her gender because she'd probably had her gender referenced by nearly all of her passengers, a slightly larger part of my brain wanted to ask her about it anyway.

I thought I was being clever when I asked her, “what percentage of your passengers make some comment about you being female?”

She took her eyes away from the road and looked at me for a good half second, and then looked forward again. “Including you? One-hundred percent,” she said.

Let’s move on and discuss some frequently asked questions (FAQ) regarding Rotoworld’s most searched players:

The NBA Search Market: Week 4



The Lingering Injured

Deron Williams, Mike Dunleavy, & Michael Redd – These three players have been lingering in the top ten for a minimum of three weeks. If you own one of these guys, you have three options:
1. Hold
2. Trade
3. Drop
Owners that own all three of these guys have a fourth option:
4. Cry
The correct answer, in all three cases, is to hold (and/or cry). If you don’t own one of these guys, trading for them is an option. I have been actively trying to trade for Williams in my league. Dunleavy scares the heck out of me, even though the latest news on him is actually positive. If I had Dunleavy on my team, I’d wait for him to play a few games and then sell him, even if I didn’t get full value for him. Perhaps I’m being melodramatic, but the sort of injury he has (they are calling it tendonitis) could linger all year. Redd should be fine, but I’m not all that interested. I find it hard to get excited about a player that gets most of his value from scoring points and hitting three pointers. I would even rather have the messy stats lines that Andre Iguodala has been throwing up recently over the relative emptiness/cleanliness of a typical Redd stat line.

Either way, my guess is that Redd and Williams owners aren’t selling anyway. I have always found that trades are difficult to pull off when a player is surrounded by uncertainty. (It is possible that the current credit crunch is an example of this behavior. I’d be more certain of this if I new what the word “credit” meant. Crunch I understand. I like crunch in my granola.) Owners seem wary of making a foolish move. But maybe you have a bold owner in your league who likes to wheel and deal in times of uncertainty. If you do, why not make an offer?

FAQ – What is the timetable for return for these three guys? The minute I answer this question, some new Rotoworld blurb will pop up contradicting what I’ve just written. So if you own these guys, your best bet is to check for updates regularly. But is a synopsis of the latest news:
Williams – He is day-to-day. He was a game-time decision on Friday (11/21) but didn’t play. Williams has missed 10 games so far this year and counting…
Dunleavy – The poor guy had only missed 10 games in his entire career going into this season. He reportedly is participating in workouts and “looks good.” But what does this mean? Is he one week away? Two? Your guess is as good as mine. Dunleavy has missed ten games and counting…
Redd – He wanted to play on Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week (11/18 & 11/18) but was not ready. The logical conclusion to make would be that he’d be ready for his next game, right? But he did not play in his Friday (11/21) game. His next three games are on Saturday (11/22), Monday (11/24), and Wednesday (11/26). You have to figure he’ll come back for one of those games, right? He’s practicing, he’s listed as day-to-day, but he still has some residual pain. Redd has missed 10 games and counting…

Deron Williams is really getting into the games, even if he isn’t actually getting into the games.

The Latest Wounded

Kevin Martin – The president of the team says Martin isn’t ready to return anytime soon. Whatever that means. You probably can’t use him this coming week. FAQ – Is it just me, or does it seem like there are a lot of guys who have lingering ankle injuries this year? Martin has missed seven games and counting…

Proof of Concept

Jose Calderon – Interest in Calderon spiked when he tweaked his hamstring. After having what I call a “throat clearing” game in his first game back from injury, Calderon proved that he is healthy in his second game back when he set season highs in both points and assists. I call these sorts of games “Proof of Concept” (PoC) games. He’s back. FAQ – Did Calderon just drop 26 points and 15 assists on New Jersey? Yup.

Career Highs In Points

Andrea Bargnani – At any given moment, I have five or six guys I want to pick up. Bargnani, after his career high 29-point outburst on Friday (11/21), is an easy add in twelve-team leagues. He’s a tougher case in ten-team leagues, because he’s pulled this Tyrus Thomas rollercoaster act before, like when he had 15.1ppg and 4.7rpg in February of last year. But what if he keeps it up this time? Most owners have finite benches, and so the real difficulty becomes figuring out which guy to drop. I hate his microscopic steals and assist totals. But what has me so tempted this time around is his increased block rate (.5 in 2007, 1.5 in 2008) and percentages. If these numbers are for real, then Bargnani is a SF/PF/C eligible guy who can help you out in six or seven of the nine fantasy basketball categories. He’s currently ranked 48th on Basketball Monster, one slot ahead of Wilson Chandler. FAQ – Does anyone else think Bargnani looks a little bit like Pablo Schreiber (Nick Sobotka from Season 2 of the The Wire)?

D.J. Augustin – He scored a career high 26 points in his first game as a starter. So he can score. But what about the other categories? Well, he has yet to block a shot. He has only four steals all year. Before Friday’s 7-for-11 performance from behind the three point line, he had been 5-for-26 (19.2%) for the year. His shooting percentage is in the low forties. He shot 78.3% from the free throw line at Texas. He’s not immune from turnovers. So he doesn’t appear to be a guy who fills the stat sheet. FAQ – Pick him up? Yes, if you have someone to drop, but be reasonable.

D.J.’s college stats.

Anthony Morrow – Morrow followed up his career high 37-point game with a 25-point game. His seven point game on Friday (11/21) was considerably less impressive. So where does that leave us? Well, everyone is raving about him, and it seems that he can really play. FAQ – But will he get the minutes and/or shots now that Jamal Crawford is on the team? Will Morrow become a most dropped player by this time next week? My guess is that he’ll lose some value, but still be worthy of a roster spot. We’ll have to wait and see.

The Big Trade

Al Harrington – The trade will be fine for Harrington, but it might screw with the fantasy dreams of Wilson Chandler, Jamal Crawford, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Morrow, among others.

I almost never like when the players I own get traded, especially if they’ve been in a groove before the trade. Take Jamal Crawford. He will essentially be starting a new job and moving all at the same time. As someone who has moving phobia, it makes me anxious just thinking about it. Perhaps I’m still scarred from a 2006 Julio Lugo (yes, baseball) trade that ruined what could have been a career year for Lugo. But not all trades are bad. Last year, Devin Harris owners got a nice boost after he was traded to New Jersey. Who knows how this thing will shake out, but count me among the wary when it comes to the value of any player affected by the trade not named Al Harrington.

Steve Alexander on the trade.

Not everyone thinks Harrington will help the Knicks.

The Crawford side of the trade.

Free Darko on the trade.

Oh, That Was So Last Week

JaVale McGee – After two unimpressive games as starter, people are starting to lose interest in McGee. Maybe he’s like Ben Gordon, who seems to play better off the bench. He might get a chance to test out this theory if he keeps playing this way. FAQ – Do I hold onto this guy? Yes, if you can. Remember all that hype from last week? A lot of it was true. For example, the guy really is seven feet tall. He could click and start to throw up some double doubles. Hold him if you can, and if he’s on the wire in your league, keep one eye on him for the next few weeks.

NBA Search Market: Week 3

I recently invented four arbitrary rules for rooting against a team:
1. Each year, you may select one Team To Root Against (TTRA)
2. You can only root against one professional sports team per calendar year.
3. Once you publicly declare your TTRA, you must continue to root against that team for the remainder of that season.
4. You are allowed to pick one player on your TTRA that is not considered blameworthy.

Got it? Last year, using these rules, I actively rooted against the New York Knicks and gave David Lee the not-to-be-blamed slot (mostly because he shares the same name as my father-in-law). This year, however, the Knicks are a fun team. Jamal Crawford scores. Wilson Chandler is the exciting new rookie. Chris Duhon is the Charlie Ward-like point guard. I can root for that. Even Nate Robinson seems a little less of a ball hog this year.

So just like that, in a span of one year, the train-wreck 23 win, 59 loss Knicks have become the “upstart” six win, three loss New York Knicks (the quotes are not intended to show that I aware that the use of the word "upstart" is clichéd.). I haven’t picked a TTRA yet this year, but I’m leaning towards Chicago. With the possible exceptions of Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon, their team is filled with fantasy headaches. Still, I’m holding out hope that Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas can cash in on their considerable talent and lead their team to a string of victories. I give the Bulls until the end of December to turn things around. After that, I just might slap the TTRA label on them.

One other administrative item: last week I pumped Roger Mason Jr., and he immediately tanked. In order to keep myself honest, I’m going to keep track of my predictions and prescriptions throughout the season and post them in this space. I haven’t completely finished generating my accountability mechanism, but is should by ready to debut next week.

Ok, now let’s check out how the search markets are doing:

The NBA Search Market: Week 3



10. Charlie Villanueva

Impetus for searches – Demotion, injury. When will he return, and when he does will he get enough minutes to be worth of a roster spot?

There is some good news – Villanueva started the first eight games of the season. In his ninth game of the year, he lost his starting job and then hurt his hamstring. In doing so, however, he made a guy in desperate need of a nickname fantasy relevant: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Vote on the nickname you think is best for Mbah a Moute:



But ultimately, the news is bad – The hamstring will heal. Villanueva is a risky play for Week 4, but after that his hamstring should be fine. The bigger concern is that the player Villanueva lost his starting role to, Mbah a Moute, doesn’t look like he’s going to give it back any time soon, as Mbah a Moute dropped 19 points and 17 rebounds on Memphis on Friday.

Suggested Reading:

Charlie might not be a star, but maybe it’s okay if he’s just happy to have made the league. Isn’t that enough, demanding fantasy owners?

9. Shawn Marion

Impetus for searches – Return from injury, performing below expectations. Will we ever see that consensus #1 pick in fantasy basketball Marion again?

There is some good news – Marion seems to have put his lingering groin injury behind him, as he went for 12 points, 12 rebounds in 29 minutes on Friday.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Fantasy owners didn’t spend a first round pick on Marion so he could go 12-12 in 29 minutes. That’s what you get on a good Andrew Bynum night, not a Shawn Marion night. What’s especially strange to me is that Marion, a career 82% free throw shooter, is somehow shooting in the sixty percent range since arriving in Miami. It really is almost as if he is a different player. So what can we expect going forward? Probably not as good as the 22 points, 12 rebounds he averaged in his 2005-06 season, and certainly not as bad as the 11 points, 10 rebounds he’s averaging this year. I’m guessing—a pure guess here—that he’ll settle somewhere in between, maybe at 15 points, 10 rebounds or so. If you are expecting more, you are probably going to be disappointed. He’ll still be a top twenty-five fantasy player and worth holding onto, so don’t panic and trade him away for peanuts.

Suggested Reading:

Marion’s tattoo doesn’t mean what he thinks it means.

8. Greg Oden

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. How soon, if ever, will he become a double-double machine?

There is some bad news – While it was great to see him back on the court, he only played 16 minutes in his first game back and looked pretty uncoordinated throughout his three point, two rebound, two block effort.

But ultimately, the news is good – In his second game back, he played 24 minutes and had 11 points,11 rebounds, and four blocks. In this third game back, he played 24 minutes and had 13 points and 8 rebounds and three blocks. Oden is one of those guys who some people really like and others think that he’s worthless. I happen to like Oden. It’s debatable whether or not he can stay healthy, but if he’s getting a consistent 25 plus minutes a night, he will probably post at least one double-double a week. And you have to think that he’ll occasionally have nights where he blocks more than five shots and/or gathers in 15 plus rebounds. I know the guy looks like the oldest player in the league, but give him a break, as he’s only 20 years old.

Suggested Reading:

The definition of the word “odenize.

7. Corey Maggette

Impetus for searches – Injury. Can Maggette owners start him in Week 4?

There is some bad news – Maggette recently returned to the court after missing four games with a hamstring injury. Maggette claims to be “doing all the necessary stuff” in order to keep his hamstrings healthy, but you have to be a little concerned because hamstring injuries can linger. Hold your breath for his first five games or so and hope he doesn’t suffer a setback.

But ultimately, the news is good – At the end of the day, Maggette only had a “mild” strain, so there really isn’t all that much to be concerned about. His first game back was a little rocky, but his 17 point, five rebound effort in 26 minutes his second game back should be enough to convince even the most cautious owners that he’s ready to be put back into the starting lineup.

Suggested Reading:

A Maggette teammate puts up an interesting line.

Deadspin claims Maggette will fit perfectly with Denver’s offense.

6. Devin Harris

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. Will his injury linger, or can I plug him right into my lineup?

There is some bad news – In his first game back from injury, Harris limped noticeably throughout the game.

But ultimately, the news is good – Sure, he was limping a little, but did you happen to notice that the also threw up 30 points? He was running more fluidly in his second game, and he scored 33 points. He now has three 30 plus point games in a row, and his trade value has never been higher.

Suggested Reading:

Devin loses a game of one-on-one to a regular bloke.

FAQ regarding Devin getting beaten in a one-on-one basketball game.

5. Deron Williams

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. When is Williams going to be back? Can I start him for my Week 4 H2H matchup?

There is some bad news – Williams returned from his ankle injury, but after playing 30 plus minutes in two straight games, he decided his ankle needed a little more time to heal. In the short term, it looks like Williams will be frustrating to own until his ankle completely heals, and it is probably better to keep him benched for Week 4 if you are in a weekly league.

But ultimately, the news is good – Now might a good time to trade for him, as his owners may have forgotten how good he is (although my experience has always been that owners holding onto slightly injured players tend to overvalue them, making a trade all but impossible). Give him another week or two, and he’ll be back to his old self.

Suggested Reading:

D. Williams tried to play but his ankle just wasn’t ready.

D. Williams wilderness survival guide.

D. Williams not very good at paper basketball.

4. Josh Howard

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. When Williams returns from his wrist injury, will he play at a high level?

There is some bad news – Howard missed two games with a wrist injury.

But ultimately, the news is good – Wrist injury sounds scary, but he returned and went for 21-11 and 25-9 in his first two games back, and so it appears the wrist injury wasn’t serious.

Suggested Reading:

Howard will be fine. If you can’t calm down, maybe this Steve Nash comedy will help.

The Mavs should not be ashamed of Josh Howard.

A must-read interview with Josh Howard.

3. JaVale McGee

Impetus for searches – Hot pickup. Who is this guy, and is he worth a roster spot?

There is some bad news – He’s the sort of guy that people say has “upside,” which is really just a euphemism for a player who hasn’t done jack anything yet.

But ultimately, the news is good – He’s seven feet tall and Juan Dixon says there is no reason he can’t be “the next Dwight Howard.” While it is possible that Dixon was merely referring to McGee penchant for missing free throws (he’s shooting 48% from the line so far this year), he could also mean that McGee’s nine point, six rebound, 1 plus block per game averages could double with a little more playing time.

Suggested Reading:

Wizznutzz on JaVale.

The Big Secret.

Dwight Howard thinks McGee is going to be "nice."

The JaVale McGee FAQ.

2. Mike Dunleavy

Impetus for searches – Injured. When will Dunleavy get back on the court?

There is some good news – His current return date is indefinite, but if you are a T.J. Ford owner, you can at least feel good knowing Dunleavy’s absence may have helped Ford be more valuable fantasy-wise.

But ultimately, the news is bad – For the third straight week, Dunleavy makes the top ten most searched list. In his case, that is not a good thing. Owners are getting desperate for information, but there really isn’t any new information out there. Sure, it can be frustration to watch as other owners snatch up guys like McGee while you are forced to hold onto Dunleavy, but you can’t drop him yet. To review, Dunleavy has tendonitis. That’s what the Pacers are calling Dunleavy’s knee injury. Tendonitis, complicated by a bone spur. The injury has not shown improvement, and coach Jim O’Brien has expressed his concern, as has Dunleavy himself. There are three possible options, and two of them are bad: 1. Dunleavy heals and is playing in a few weeks or so. 2. Dunleavy’s tendonitis is chronic, and he never gets fully healthy all year. 3. Dunleavy, after realizing that the knee isn’t getting better, decides to have surgery. If you are a Dunleavy owner, you can’t drop him yet, and he has no trade value. Your best bet is just to hold onto him and to keep monitoring his status.

Suggested Reading:

Trade Dunleavy?

Dunleavy can’t say when he’ll be back: “Fans, teammates and even his wife have been in his ear about a return date from his right knee injury.”

How to predictcareer years?

Dunleavy takes a kick to the face courtesy of Ira Newble.

1. Michael Redd

Impetus for searches – Injury. When will he return to the court?

There is some bad news – There is uncertainty surrounding Redd’s injury, but more of the “when” kind and not much of the “if” kind. He has already missed seven games, which is a lot of games for an injury that was considered day-to-day.

But ultimately, the news is good – After initially scaring owners everywhere by calling his injury a “high” ankle sprain, it appears that the injury is just a regular sprain. He not the safest Week 4 start for owners in weekly H2H leagues, as he may or may not return on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. Be sure to check Rotoworld for updates before setting your lineup for the week.

Suggested Reading:

A Bucks blog that sometimes has some updates about Redd.

If you find yourself forgetting how good Redd is, watch this.

NBA Search Market: Week 2

My fellow Rotoworld searchites, I urge you to type Roger Mason Jr.’s name into the search area in the upper right-hand corner of your computer screen and then click that red “go” button. Do this a few hundred times if you have nothing better to do. Our goal is to have Mason in the top ten by Week 3.

Why, you ask? Simple. In standard nine-category leagues, only thirteen other players in the entire NBA are more valuable than Mason. Don’t believe me? See for yourself on Basketball Monster. Bottom line: Roger Mason Jr. is currently flying under the radar and he deserves to have top ten buzz.

You think I’m manipulating the market? You think I’m guilty of the NBA Search Market equivalent of insider trading? Perhaps. But that shouldn’t be your biggest concern. More of a worry is the fact that Mason is sure to lose minutes when Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker return from injuries in mid-December. But we can cross that bridge when we come to it. Until then, Mason is a must add in nearly all leagues. For the next few weeks, you can think of him as capable of putting up Jamal Crawford-like stats, only maybe even slightly better.

There, that should be enough propaganda to get the Mason hype machine purring like a kitten. So get searching. You only have seven days left to make Mason the king of the Rotoworld Search Market.

The NBA Search Market: Week 2



10. Chauncey Billups

Impetus for searches – Trade. How will his trade to Denver effect his value?

There is some bad news – Initially, you can expect some inconsistency from Billups as he his adjusts to his new environs. Billups has just had his entire life uprooted, so be patient.

But ultimately, the news is good – The conventional wisdom among sports writers is that Billups is more of a “true” point guard, and that he will bring pass-first mentality that had previously been lacking with AI. This explanation feels too easy and false and irks me, as it is a conclusion drawn more from persona than fact. Ultimately, however, it doesn’t really matter if Billups is a pass-first or pass-second or pass-seventh point guard, as long as he’s producing for his owners. Right? His debut was a little rocky, but better games are ahead.

Suggested Reading:

“It’s like I lost a brother, you know? We did a lot of special things together.”

9. Brandan Wright

Impetus for searches – Moved into starting linup. Is he worthy of a pickup?

There is some bad news – I read Steve Alexander’s Friday chat and was amazed to see the frequency with which Wright’s first name was misspelled. If you are in a league where spelling somehow factors in, this could become a problem. The only other bit of bad news is that Wright is still really young and is still developing. As he showed in his last two games, he has a little of the Tyrus rollercoaster in him.

But ultimately, the news is good – The bottom line is that if he’s getting a consistent 30 plus minutes a game, he’ll probably be worth owning and even starting. There is always the risk of some drama, given that Nellie and Harrington are involved, but you have to think that Nellie won’t mess with Wright’s head too much. As for Wright’s bio and skills, he was a one-and-done guy at UNC and has a long frame and is very good in transition offense and at blocking shots. He is an above-average rebounder. He’s still a little on the skinny side, so might have trouble banging with the bigger guys. He’s very good inside of ten feet. He’s got a great hook shot. His free throw shot is ugly, though. Unless he's improved significantly from college (where he shot 57% from the line), expect a terrible FT%. His outside shot is also ugly.

Suggested Reading:

Here is a pre-draft profile of Wright.

Fear The Beard, a Golden State blog, discusses Wright.

Wright is ready.

8. Matt Barnes

Impetus for searches – Pregnancy (his wife just gave birth to twins). When will Barnes return to the team? Can I start him for my Week 3 H2H matchup?

There is some bad news – Barnes’ wife was pregnant and due to give birth around Thanksgiving. When she unexpectedly went into labor earlier this week, Matt left the team to be with his wife.

But ultimately, the news is good – Twins! Barnes is scheduled to return to the team for his Monday game. Feel free to put him in your starting lineup. Fun fact: Steve Nash and his wife Alejandra Amarilla also have twins.

Suggested Reading:

Barnes has to pay for his tickets.

Barnes is another satisfied haircut customer.

MB explains his tattoos.

7. Corey Maggette

Impetus for searches – Injury. Can Maggette owners start him in Week 3?

There is some bad news – Here is Maggette’s coach discussing Maggette’s injury: “First of all, he doesn’t play worth a sh*t when he’s trying to play hurt.” Delicately put, Nellie. Maggette claims to be “doing all the necessary stuff” for his hamstrings, but you have to be a little concerned because hamstring injuries can linger. He’s certainly a risky play this week, and you probably should keep him on your bench until he proves that he’s healthy.

But ultimately, the news is good – He only has a “mild” strain and should return to full strength soon. Check back after his team’s Sunday game and see if there are any additional updates on his status.

Suggested Reading:

Deadspin claims Maggette will fit perfectly with Denver’s offense.



6. Ramon Sessions

Impetus for searches – Hot pickup. Is he worth a roster spot?

There is some good news – Sessions was in the starting lineup for two games while Luke Ridnour let his sensitive back heal. He also played 35, 20, & 34 minutes in his last three games off the bench, but that was largely because Michael Redd was out with a sprained ankle. Still, Sessions sneezes and he gets eight or nine assists. And, in case you missed it, he was really good when he started last year: in seven games as a starter in 2007, he averaged 13.1 points, 13.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, .4 blocks, .3 three pointers made, and shot 46.9% from the field and 73.7 percent from the line. Those of you in leagues with huge benches should save a seat for Sessions, as this fantasy tease could luck into some playing time and reward patient owners.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Most of you are not in leagues with huge benches, and as soon as Redd returns from his ankle injury on Monday of Week 3, Sessions won’t get enough minutes to warrant a roster spot. While it is counter-intuitive that a player who plays so well at the end of one year can be ignored by his coach at the start of the next, that is what is going on here. While you and I might believe in him, he will struggle for playing time as long as his coach does not.

Suggested Reading:

Who is R. Sessions?

Top five stat lines by a scrub.

No really…who is R. Sessions?

Is Ridnour the only point guard on the Bucks who has any value?

5. Stephon Marbury

Impetus for searches – Drama. Is he worth a roster spot?

There is some good news – He’s averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career. There is a 2% chance that he’ll be traded to a team that needs a starting point guard. If that ever happens, he may gain fantasy relevance.

But ultimately, the news is bad – A quick recap: Marbury’s coach won’t play him because the team is moving in a new direction. Marbury wants to play, if not in New York, than somewhere else. However, to be traded, Marbury will probably have to agree to cut his salary, something he is understandably unwilling to do. So, his coach has said he will ride the bench all year. Hard to say where things go from here (when dealing with Marbury, anything is possible), but putting all the drama and inevitable future drama aside for a second (for more on this, look at the suggested reading below), let’s look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:

 
Player  FG%     FT%   3PTM   PTS     REB    AST   STL   BLK    TO
   A    41.9  71.6   1.2     13.9   2.5    4.7    .9     .1    2.0
   B    39.4  71.5   1.9     13.1    3.5    5.3  1.3     .2    2.2

Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Before you answer, I should say that both point guards are 6’2”, both grew up in New York City, both are currently in their early thirties, and both are pretty washed up. So, what’s your answer? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer “Skip To My Lou” Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury gets traded, and even if he gets traded to a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn’t rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn’t out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That’s not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy? Seriously. Drop him if he is on your team, and stop searching for him at Rotoworld if he isn’t. I declare, nay, I decree Starbury to be, forevermore, irrelevant.

Suggested Reading:

Marbury is scrambling for ridiculous ways to try to stay in shape.

“Are you going to get in the truck?”

“One day I might be able to buy the Knicks.”

Knick bloggers speak out regarding Marbury.

4. Deron Williams

Impetus for searches – Injury. When is Williams going to be back? Can I start him for my Week 3 H2H matchup?

There is some bad news – It is increasingly likely that Williams, who hurt his ankle on October 18th, will be out of the lineup for closer to 4-6 weeks, which is more than double the original two-week estimate. If true, then Williams wouldn’t be back until sometime between November 15th and November 29th.

But ultimately, the news is good – It is possible you will only need to wait one additional week, and then you be once again enjoying the statistic goodness of Mr. Williams. Be patient.

Suggested Reading:

D. Williams wilderness survival guide.

D. Williams not very good at paper basketball.

3. Allen Iverson

Impetus for searches – Trade. How will Iverson’s trade to Detroit effect his value?

There is some bad news – When you search for Iverson in Rotoworld, the search results reveal two options: AI, and Brad Iverson (BI), the quarterback-turned-wide receiver of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. BI and AI are not related. This news is really only bad news to BI, who has been secretly hoping that AI was his older brother. BI’s younger brother, Chad (CI) was also disappointed to discover AI was no relation.

But ultimately, the news is good – Joe Dumars has a pretty good track record for enabling his players to be sucessful, and AI owners have to feel pretty confident that AI will play well with the Pistons. Devin Harris did score a career high 38 points against AI, but don’t read too much into that. Iverson, who is 33 years old, may not approach the 26.4 points a game he scored last year, he’ll certainly score more than the 18.7 he was averaging at the beginning of this year before the trade. The 24 he scored in his debut sounds about right.

Suggested Reading:

Bethlehem Shoals on AI’s trade to Detroit.

Deadspin on AI’s debut.

Video highlights of AI’s debut.

Things you do not do after a trade.

1. (Tie) Michael Redd

Impetus for searches – Injury. When will he return to the court?

There is some bad news – Redd has already missed three games. While the injury is being called day-to-day, it is possible the injury is more serious than first reported.

But ultimately, the news is good – After initially scaring owners everywhere by calling his injury a “high” ankle sprain, it appears that the injury is just a regular sprain. He not the safest Week 3 start for owners in weekly H2H leagues. Be sure to check Rotoworld for updates before setting your lineup for the week.

Suggested Reading:

If you find yourself forgetting how good Redd is, watch this.

1. (Tie) Mike Dunleavy

Impetus for searches – Injured. When will Dunleavy get back on the court?

There is some good news – The Pacers, as of last week, were saying that Dunleavy might be back in two weeks. In the last week, however, that estimate has been abandoned. His current return date is indefinite, but if you are a T.J. Ford owner, you can at least feel good knowing that Ford has taken it upon himself to replace Dunleavy’s nineteen points per game.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Tendonitis. That’s what the Pacers are calling Dunleavy’s knee injury. Tendonitis, complicated by a bone spur. The injury has not shown improvement, and coach Jim O’Brien has expressed his concern, as has Dunleavy himself. There are three possible options, and two of them are bad: 1. Dunleavy heals and is playing in a few weeks or so. 2. Dunleavy’s tendonitis is chronic, and he never gets fully healthy all year. 3. Dunleavy, after realizing that the knee isn’t getting better, decides to have surgery. If you are a Dunleavy owner, you can’t drop him yet, and he has no trade value. Your best bet is just to hold onto him and to keep monitoring his status.

Suggested Reading:

Dunleavy can’t say when he’ll be back: “Fans, teammates and even his wife have been in his ear about a return date from his right knee injury.”

How to predict career years?

Dunleavy takes a kick to the face.

NBA Search Market: Week 1

Welcome. My name is P. Terrence McGovern. Each week, I will discuss the good and bad news regarding the ten highest searched NBA players on Rotoworld over the last seven days. I’ll also graph the ebb and flow of your searches and name the anomalies in the resulting line graphs after topographical features and kids games, like Mount Chalmers and Slip & Slide Tyrus. Then, when you’ve just about had enough of me, I’ll point you in the direction of additional content on these same highest searched players.

Now, without further ado, I present to you the top ten highest searched players from Week 1 of the 2008 / 2009 NBA season:



10. Marvin Williams

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Marvin’s case falls into a third category: suspension. Williams owners wanted to see what he’d do after coming back from his one-game suspension for flagrant fouling Rajon Rondo last year.

There is some bad news – Some people struggle to get excited about a guy who has never done better than 15 points and six rebounds. His season debut was terrible, as he shot 1-of-7 from the field.

But ultimately, the news is good – It feels like Williams has been around forever, but keep in mind that he’s only twenty-one years old. And while he has yet to take the league by storm, he has certainly improved each year. He is surrounded by some solid players and it is quite possible that he becomes the, say, Mike Dunleavy-type breakout of the 2008 / 2009 season. I fully admit that it can be hard to stay patient, especially early in the year when all these one-game wonders start cropping up as tempting waiver wire pickups. Still, you should hold onto Marvin for a minimum of three weeks and give him a chance to show you something.

Required Reading:

Marvin and friends.

9. Ramon Sessions

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. Sessions will be in the starting lineup until Luke Ridnour returns from an injury.

There is some good news – He was so good last year, wasn’t he? Those of you in leagues with huge benches should save a seat for Sessions, as this fantasy tease could luck into some playing time and reward patient owners.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Most of you are not in leagues with huge benches, and as soon as Ridnour returns from his back injury on Wednesday of Week 2, Sessions won’t get enough minutes to warrant a roster spot. While it is counter-intuitive that a player who plays so well at the end of one year can be ignored by his coach at the start of the next, that is what is going on here. Not to pile on here, but did you notice that Sessions didn’t play a single minute in the first two games of the season? That is because Sessions’ coach, Scott Skiles, seems to value Tyronn Lue and Charlie Bell over Sessions for the backup point guard role. You’d like to think that if Sessions continues to play well, he’ll get more minutes, but it can be really hard to play well when you never get off the bench.

Required Reading:

Who is Ramon Sessions?

Is Ridnour the only point guard on the Bucks who has any value?

8. Greg Oden

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. Oden was injured three minutes into his NBA debut. He remained in the game, but eventually hobbled off the court after playing only 12 minutes and 54 seconds. He’ll miss 2-4 weeks of action.

There is some bad news – The fantasy world is now divided into two groups. One group thinks Oden’s injury was a freak accident and feel confident that he’ll be throwing up double doubles by early December, while the other is ready to dismiss Oden as a bust.

But ultimately, the news is good – The large majority of fantasy owners have decided in their hearts that Oden is a bust, and so it is highly possible that you can get him on the cheap in your league. And plus, the guy is so personable that it is hard to root against him, right?

Required Reading:

True Hoop says Oden might be in trouble.

An injury expert on Oden’s MRI.

Oden “Ouch” on Basketball Jones.

7. Marcus Camby

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. (That didn’t take long.)

There is some bad news – If this were, say, baseball ironman Cal Ripkin we were talking about, there’d be no need for concern. But Camby, who has true first-round value, was the guy that no fantasy owner wanted to draft because they just knew he would get injured. It was a small miracle that Camby only missed three games last year, and he’s already missed three games this year.

But ultimately, the news is good – Camby has a bruised heel. How bad can that be? Don’t overreact and sell Camby when his value is down. Be patient. He should be back on Monday.

Required Reading:

Camby wishes he were Superman?

6. Baron Davis

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. Both his finger and his tailbone are injured. Owners with weekly lineups want to know if they can start him for Week 2.

There is some bad news – Davis is another guy that had the smell of imminent injury on draft day. The fact that he has two injuries before the season is a week old doesn’t bode well for his chances of staying relatively healthy this year.

But ultimately, the news is good – Let’s look a little more closely at those two injuries. The first was a partial tear of a ligament in his left ring finger. This sounds really bad, but the injury didn’t require surgery and he was back on the court a week later. His other happened when he fell hard on his butt/hip. While that will probably make long bus rides uncomfortable for him for the next week or so, he should be fine while standing up to play basketball as soon as the initial soreness goes away. He’s a risky play in Week 2 (he’s doubtful for his Monday game), but he should be good to go for Week 3 and beyond.

Required Reading:

Davis might be gone, but the hot dogs are still expensive in Golden State ($5.75).

5. Mike Dunleavy

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. Dunleavy has a “balky knee.” Could that be any more vague? Owners want to know when they can expect Dunleavy to be back on the court.

There is some good news – After his amazing season last year, owners who invested in Dunleavy are eager to verify that he wasn’t a fluke. That should happen, but it will take a approximately two weeks until Dunleavy will be ready to play in a game.

But ultimately, the news is bad – While I insisted that you not overreact to the other injuries in this column, Dunleavy’s injury is the exception. Probably what is most concerning is that Dunleavy himself has said that he is “concerned” out his knee. The fact that he was able to shed the “no timetable for return” label is promising, but unlike a bruised butt, Dunleavy’s condition might very well prove to be chronic.

Required Reading:

Dunleavy takes a kick to the face.

4. Tyrus Thomas

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup, sort of. Initially, owners and drafters wanted to know if Thomas was going to head into the season with the starting role. After the season started, the searches were from owners looking to get the lowdown on his eye-opening season-opening performance. Owners looking for information regarding the potential Al Harrington-to-Chicago trade searched for Thomas on Wednesday. Then, when Thomas had two consecutive bad games, Thomas searches became less frequent.

There is some bad news – With Thomas, it is all about minutes. In his first three games, his playing time went from 41, to 29 to 26 minutes. Not a good trend. In addition, some people like to conveniently forget that this is the same guy who was in the starting lineup at the beginning of last season. And guess how many games he lasted as a starter last season before his first benching? Six. In addition, the Al Harrington to Chicago rumor, were it ever to come true, would most likely cause Thomas’ fantasy value to plummet.

But ultimately, the news is good – Not only did Thomas start the season opener, he played forty-one minutes. Which is a lot. And he made good use of his minutes, as he put up fifteen points, ten rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block. Sure, he scored 14 points on 2-of-22 shooting in his next two games, but his coach insists that he’ll give him time to work his way out of his current funk. The bottom line is if you like exciting young players, Thomas is your man. Sure, his inconsistency has been known to cause headaches, but is also capable of delivering satisfying “I told you so” moments for his owners, and many of us live for those moments. Don’t stress too much about trade rumors, and ride him in your starting lineup for as long as he’s getting minutes. Chicago has four games this week, and so he should be in the starting lineups of most owners in ten-team and twelve-team leagues.

Required Reading:

Propaganda on Tyrus

FreeDarko previews every game of the entire NBA season. For example:
“Apr 13 Chicago@Detroit: Amir Johnson and Tyrus Thomas spend the night trying to one-up each other, forcing Sportscenter to run over by five minutes and clip the opening credits to Sports Trivia for Women Who Have Seen Athletes Naked.”

Rotoworld’s Ryan Knaus discusses Thomas’ battle for playing time.

Thomas is opening up and his coaches are listening.

Is Thomas improving?

3. Kelenna Azubuike

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. He has been making good use of his playing time.

There is some bad news – Azubuike is great, but as any owner of a Warrior knows, his coach, Don “Nellie” Nelson is a real pain. In three games this year, Azubuike has played as many as 43 minutes and as few as 22 minutes. Expect his minutes to fluctuate daily and without warning.

But ultimately, the news is good – Even in his 22 minute game, Azubuike managed to throw up 11 shots and score 15 points. Another thing to like about Azubuike is he’s been good in the past: in fourteen November games last year he averaged 13.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. Look for him to average between 25 and 30 minutes per game going forward, and he should continue to make solid contributions to your team.

Required Reading:

A former Pickup of the Day.

2. Mario Chalmers

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. Mario wowed the fantasy basketball world with his 17-8-7 debut

There is some bad news – After wowing the world with his first game, he pulled a Tyrus Thomas and had consecutive clunkers.

But ultimately, the news is good – Well, his second game wasn’t a complete clunker, as he did have eight assists. The bottom line is that you have to feel good about owning a guy with Chalmers’ potential when he is getting a consistent thirty plus minutes a night.

Required Reading:

Darrell Arthur gives Chalmers a vote of confidence.

1. Darrell Arthur

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. His strong NBA debut caused a lot of buzz.

There is some good news – Each year there is a guy who is forced to sit alone in the NBA draft green room while player after player sitting at home in their living room is taken over him. Arthur was that guy, as he wasn’t taken until the twenty-seventh pick because of a rumored kidney problem. He also suffered the indecency of being traded a couple of times immediately following the draft. So, it makes for a great story when he has an impressive game in his NBA debut. Despite the fact that the second and third games of his NBA career were largely forgettable, he appears to have a spot in the rotation, so he’ll have some opportunities to prove his first game wasn’t a fluke.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Hear that sound? That’s the sound of Arthur being thrown back onto the waiver wire by trigger-happy owners. It’s not that Arthur isn’t any good, because he is good, but unlike Chalmers, Arthur loses playing time after he plays poorly, and Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic will continue to steal his minutes. Consider Arthur as someone to watch, but not necessarily someone to pick up.

Required Reading:

Did Arthur pass his English III, Theater Arts, and Algebra II classes during his freshman year in high school?

A pre-NBA draft interview with Arthur.

Steve Smith gives Arthur a vote of confidence.