Sunday, November 9, 2008

NBA Search Market: Week 2

My fellow Rotoworld searchites, I urge you to type Roger Mason Jr.’s name into the search area in the upper right-hand corner of your computer screen and then click that red “go” button. Do this a few hundred times if you have nothing better to do. Our goal is to have Mason in the top ten by Week 3.

Why, you ask? Simple. In standard nine-category leagues, only thirteen other players in the entire NBA are more valuable than Mason. Don’t believe me? See for yourself on Basketball Monster. Bottom line: Roger Mason Jr. is currently flying under the radar and he deserves to have top ten buzz.

You think I’m manipulating the market? You think I’m guilty of the NBA Search Market equivalent of insider trading? Perhaps. But that shouldn’t be your biggest concern. More of a worry is the fact that Mason is sure to lose minutes when Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker return from injuries in mid-December. But we can cross that bridge when we come to it. Until then, Mason is a must add in nearly all leagues. For the next few weeks, you can think of him as capable of putting up Jamal Crawford-like stats, only maybe even slightly better.

There, that should be enough propaganda to get the Mason hype machine purring like a kitten. So get searching. You only have seven days left to make Mason the king of the Rotoworld Search Market.

The NBA Search Market: Week 2



10. Chauncey Billups

Impetus for searches – Trade. How will his trade to Denver effect his value?

There is some bad news – Initially, you can expect some inconsistency from Billups as he his adjusts to his new environs. Billups has just had his entire life uprooted, so be patient.

But ultimately, the news is good – The conventional wisdom among sports writers is that Billups is more of a “true” point guard, and that he will bring pass-first mentality that had previously been lacking with AI. This explanation feels too easy and false and irks me, as it is a conclusion drawn more from persona than fact. Ultimately, however, it doesn’t really matter if Billups is a pass-first or pass-second or pass-seventh point guard, as long as he’s producing for his owners. Right? His debut was a little rocky, but better games are ahead.

Suggested Reading:

  • “It’s like I lost a brother, you know? We did a lot of special things together.”

    9. Brandan Wright

    Impetus for searches – Moved into starting linup. Is he worthy of a pickup?

    There is some bad news – I read Steve Alexander’s Friday chat and was amazed to see the frequency with which Wright’s first name was misspelled. If you are in a league where spelling somehow factors in, this could become a problem. The only other bit of bad news is that Wright is still really young and is still developing. As he showed in his last two games, he has a little of the Tyrus rollercoaster in him.

    But ultimately, the news is good – The bottom line is that if he’s getting a consistent 30 plus minutes a game, he’ll probably be worth owning and even starting. There is always the risk of some drama, given that Nellie and Harrington are involved, but you have to think that Nellie won’t mess with Wright’s head too much. As for Wright’s bio and skills, he was a one-and-done guy at UNC and has a long frame and is very good in transition offense and at blocking shots. He is an above-average rebounder. He’s still a little on the skinny side, so might have trouble banging with the bigger guys. He’s very good inside of ten feet. He’s got a great hook shot. His free throw shot is ugly, though. Unless he's improved significantly from college (where he shot 57% from the line), expect a terrible FT%. His outside shot is also ugly.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Here is a pre-draft profile of Wright.

  • Fear The Beard, a Golden State blog, discusses Wright.

  • Wright is ready.

    8. Matt Barnes

    Impetus for searches – Pregnancy (his wife just gave birth to twins). When will Barnes return to the team? Can I start him for my Week 3 H2H matchup?

    There is some bad news – Barnes’ wife was pregnant and due to give birth around Thanksgiving. When she unexpectedly went into labor earlier this week, Matt left the team to be with his wife.

    But ultimately, the news is good – Twins! Barnes is scheduled to return to the team for his Monday game. Feel free to put him in your starting lineup. Fun fact: Steve Nash and his wife Alejandra Amarilla also have twins.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Barnes has to pay for his tickets.

  • Barnes is another satisfied haircut customer.

  • MB explains his tattoos.

    7. Corey Maggette

    Impetus for searches – Injury. Can Maggette owners start him in Week 3?

    There is some bad news – Here is Maggette’s coach discussing Maggette’s injury: “First of all, he doesn’t play worth a sh*t when he’s trying to play hurt.” Delicately put, Nellie. Maggette claims to be “doing all the necessary stuff” for his hamstrings, but you have to be a little concerned because hamstring injuries can linger. He’s certainly a risky play this week, and you probably should keep him on your bench until he proves that he’s healthy.

    But ultimately, the news is good – He only has a “mild” strain and should return to full strength soon. Check back after his team’s Sunday game and see if there are any additional updates on his status.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Deadspin claims Maggette will fit perfectly with Denver’s offense.



    6. Ramon Sessions

    Impetus for searches – Hot pickup. Is he worth a roster spot?

    There is some good news – Sessions was in the starting lineup for two games while Luke Ridnour let his sensitive back heal. He also played 35, 20, & 34 minutes in his last three games off the bench, but that was largely because Michael Redd was out with a sprained ankle. Still, Sessions sneezes and he gets eight or nine assists. And, in case you missed it, he was really good when he started last year: in seven games as a starter in 2007, he averaged 13.1 points, 13.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, .4 blocks, .3 three pointers made, and shot 46.9% from the field and 73.7 percent from the line. Those of you in leagues with huge benches should save a seat for Sessions, as this fantasy tease could luck into some playing time and reward patient owners.

    But ultimately, the news is bad – Most of you are not in leagues with huge benches, and as soon as Redd returns from his ankle injury on Monday of Week 3, Sessions won’t get enough minutes to warrant a roster spot. While it is counter-intuitive that a player who plays so well at the end of one year can be ignored by his coach at the start of the next, that is what is going on here. While you and I might believe in him, he will struggle for playing time as long as his coach does not.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Who is R. Sessions?

  • Top five stat lines by a scrub.

  • No really…who is R. Sessions?

  • Is Ridnour the only point guard on the Bucks who has any value?

    5. Stephon Marbury

    Impetus for searches – Drama. Is he worth a roster spot?

    There is some good news – He’s averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career. There is a 2% chance that he’ll be traded to a team that needs a starting point guard. If that ever happens, he may gain fantasy relevance.

    But ultimately, the news is bad – A quick recap: Marbury’s coach won’t play him because the team is moving in a new direction. Marbury wants to play, if not in New York, than somewhere else. However, to be traded, Marbury will probably have to agree to cut his salary, something he is understandably unwilling to do. So, his coach has said he will ride the bench all year. Hard to say where things go from here (when dealing with Marbury, anything is possible), but putting all the drama and inevitable future drama aside for a second (for more on this, look at the suggested reading below), let’s look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:
     
    Player FG% FT% 3PTM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO
    A 41.9 71.6 1.2 13.9 2.5 4.7 .9 .1 2.0
    B 39.4 71.5 1.9 13.1 3.5 5.3 1.3 .2 2.2
    Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Before you answer, I should say that both point guards are 6’2”, both grew up in New York City, both are currently in their early thirties, and both are pretty washed up. So, what’s your answer? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer “Skip To My Lou” Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury gets traded, and even if he gets traded to a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn’t rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn’t out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That’s not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy? Seriously. Drop him if he is on your team, and stop searching for him at Rotoworld if he isn’t. I declare, nay, I decree Starbury to be, forevermore, irrelevant.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Marbury is scrambling for ridiculous ways to try to stay in shape.

  • “Are you going to get in the truck?

  • “One day I might be able to buy the Knicks.”

  • Knick bloggers speak out regarding Marbury.

    4. Deron Williams

    Impetus for searches – Injury. When is Williams going to be back? Can I start him for my Week 3 H2H matchup?

    There is some bad news – It is increasingly likely that Williams, who hurt his ankle on October 18th, will be out of the lineup for closer to 4-6 weeks, which is more than double the original two-week estimate. If true, then Williams wouldn’t be back until sometime between November 15th and November 29th.

    But ultimately, the news is good – It is possible you will only need to wait one additional week, and then you be once again enjoying the statistic goodness of Mr. Williams. Be patient.

    Suggested Reading:

  • D. Williams wilderness survival guide.

  • D. Williams not very good at paper basketball.

    3. Allen Iverson

    Impetus for searches – Trade. How will Iverson’s trade to Detroit effect his value?

    There is some bad news – When you search for Iverson in Rotoworld, the search results reveal two options: AI, and Brad Iverson (BI), the quarterback-turned-wide receiver of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. BI and AI are not related. This news is really only bad news to BI, who has been secretly hoping that AI was his older brother. BI’s younger brother, Chad (CI) was also disappointed to discover AI was no relation.

    But ultimately, the news is good – Joe Dumars has a pretty good track record for enabling his players to be sucessful, and AI owners have to feel pretty confident that AI will play well with the Pistons. Devin Harris did score a career high 38 points against AI, but don’t read too much into that. Iverson, who is 33 years old, may not approach the 26.4 points a game he scored last year, he’ll certainly score more than the 18.7 he was averaging at the beginning of this year before the trade. The 24 he scored in his debut sounds about right.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Bethlehem Shoals on AI’s trade to Detroit.

  • Deadspin on AI’s debut.

  • Video highlights of AI’s debut.

  • Things you do not do after a trade.

    1. (Tie) Michael Redd

    Impetus for searches – Injury. When will he return to the court?

    There is some bad news – Redd has already missed three games. While the injury is being called day-to-day, it is possible the injury is more serious than first reported.

    But ultimately, the news is good – After initially scaring owners everywhere by calling his injury a “high” ankle sprain, it appears that the injury is just a regular sprain. He not the safest Week 3 start for owners in weekly H2H leagues. Be sure to check Rotoworld for updates before setting your lineup for the week.

    Suggested Reading:

  • If you find yourself forgetting how good Redd is, watch this.

    1. (Tie) Mike Dunleavy

    Impetus for searches – Injured. When will Dunleavy get back on the court?

    There is some good news – The Pacers, as of last week, were saying that Dunleavy might be back in two weeks. In the last week, however, that estimate has been abandoned. His current return date is indefinite, but if you are a T.J. Ford owner, you can at least feel good knowing that Ford has taken it upon himself to replace Dunleavy’s nineteen points per game.

    But ultimately, the news is bad – Tendonitis. That’s what the Pacers are calling Dunleavy’s knee injury. Tendonitis, complicated by a bone spur. The injury has not shown improvement, and coach Jim O’Brien has expressed his concern, as has Dunleavy himself. There are three possible options, and two of them are bad: 1. Dunleavy heals and is playing in a few weeks or so. 2. Dunleavy’s tendonitis is chronic, and he never gets fully healthy all year. 3. Dunleavy, after realizing that the knee isn’t getting better, decides to have surgery. If you are a Dunleavy owner, you can’t drop him yet, and he has no trade value. Your best bet is just to hold onto him and to keep monitoring his status.

    Suggested Reading:

  • Dunleavy can’t say when he’ll be back: “Fans, teammates and even his wife have been in his ear about a return date from his right knee injury.”

  • How to predict career years?

  • Dunleavy takes a kick to the face.
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