Sunday, November 2, 2008

NBA Search Market: Week 1

Welcome. My name is P. Terrence McGovern. Each week, I will discuss the good and bad news regarding the ten highest searched NBA players on Rotoworld over the last seven days. I’ll also graph the ebb and flow of your searches and name the anomalies in the resulting line graphs after topographical features and kids games, like Mount Chalmers and Slip & Slide Tyrus. Then, when you’ve just about had enough of me, I’ll point you in the direction of additional content on these same highest searched players.

Now, without further ado, I present to you the top ten highest searched players from Week 1 of the 2008 / 2009 NBA season:



10. Marvin Williams

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Marvin’s case falls into a third category: suspension. Williams owners wanted to see what he’d do after coming back from his one-game suspension for flagrant fouling Rajon Rondo last year.

There is some bad news – Some people struggle to get excited about a guy who has never done better than 15 points and six rebounds. His season debut was terrible, as he shot 1-of-7 from the field.

But ultimately, the news is good – It feels like Williams has been around forever, but keep in mind that he’s only twenty-one years old. And while he has yet to take the league by storm, he has certainly improved each year. He is surrounded by some solid players and it is quite possible that he becomes the, say, Mike Dunleavy-type breakout of the 2008 / 2009 season. I fully admit that it can be hard to stay patient, especially early in the year when all these one-game wonders start cropping up as tempting waiver wire pickups. Still, you should hold onto Marvin for a minimum of three weeks and give him a chance to show you something.

Required Reading:

Marvin and friends.

9. Ramon Sessions

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. Sessions will be in the starting lineup until Luke Ridnour returns from an injury.

There is some good news – He was so good last year, wasn’t he? Those of you in leagues with huge benches should save a seat for Sessions, as this fantasy tease could luck into some playing time and reward patient owners.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Most of you are not in leagues with huge benches, and as soon as Ridnour returns from his back injury on Wednesday of Week 2, Sessions won’t get enough minutes to warrant a roster spot. While it is counter-intuitive that a player who plays so well at the end of one year can be ignored by his coach at the start of the next, that is what is going on here. Not to pile on here, but did you notice that Sessions didn’t play a single minute in the first two games of the season? That is because Sessions’ coach, Scott Skiles, seems to value Tyronn Lue and Charlie Bell over Sessions for the backup point guard role. You’d like to think that if Sessions continues to play well, he’ll get more minutes, but it can be really hard to play well when you never get off the bench.

Required Reading:

Who is Ramon Sessions?

Is Ridnour the only point guard on the Bucks who has any value?

8. Greg Oden

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. Oden was injured three minutes into his NBA debut. He remained in the game, but eventually hobbled off the court after playing only 12 minutes and 54 seconds. He’ll miss 2-4 weeks of action.

There is some bad news – The fantasy world is now divided into two groups. One group thinks Oden’s injury was a freak accident and feel confident that he’ll be throwing up double doubles by early December, while the other is ready to dismiss Oden as a bust.

But ultimately, the news is good – The large majority of fantasy owners have decided in their hearts that Oden is a bust, and so it is highly possible that you can get him on the cheap in your league. And plus, the guy is so personable that it is hard to root against him, right?

Required Reading:

True Hoop says Oden might be in trouble.

An injury expert on Oden’s MRI.

Oden “Ouch” on Basketball Jones.

7. Marcus Camby

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. (That didn’t take long.)

There is some bad news – If this were, say, baseball ironman Cal Ripkin we were talking about, there’d be no need for concern. But Camby, who has true first-round value, was the guy that no fantasy owner wanted to draft because they just knew he would get injured. It was a small miracle that Camby only missed three games last year, and he’s already missed three games this year.

But ultimately, the news is good – Camby has a bruised heel. How bad can that be? Don’t overreact and sell Camby when his value is down. Be patient. He should be back on Monday.

Required Reading:

Camby wishes he were Superman?

6. Baron Davis

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. Both his finger and his tailbone are injured. Owners with weekly lineups want to know if they can start him for Week 2.

There is some bad news – Davis is another guy that had the smell of imminent injury on draft day. The fact that he has two injuries before the season is a week old doesn’t bode well for his chances of staying relatively healthy this year.

But ultimately, the news is good – Let’s look a little more closely at those two injuries. The first was a partial tear of a ligament in his left ring finger. This sounds really bad, but the injury didn’t require surgery and he was back on the court a week later. His other happened when he fell hard on his butt/hip. While that will probably make long bus rides uncomfortable for him for the next week or so, he should be fine while standing up to play basketball as soon as the initial soreness goes away. He’s a risky play in Week 2 (he’s doubtful for his Monday game), but he should be good to go for Week 3 and beyond.

Required Reading:

Davis might be gone, but the hot dogs are still expensive in Golden State ($5.75).

5. Mike Dunleavy

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Injured. Dunleavy has a “balky knee.” Could that be any more vague? Owners want to know when they can expect Dunleavy to be back on the court.

There is some good news – After his amazing season last year, owners who invested in Dunleavy are eager to verify that he wasn’t a fluke. That should happen, but it will take a approximately two weeks until Dunleavy will be ready to play in a game.

But ultimately, the news is bad – While I insisted that you not overreact to the other injuries in this column, Dunleavy’s injury is the exception. Probably what is most concerning is that Dunleavy himself has said that he is “concerned” out his knee. The fact that he was able to shed the “no timetable for return” label is promising, but unlike a bruised butt, Dunleavy’s condition might very well prove to be chronic.

Required Reading:

Dunleavy takes a kick to the face.

4. Tyrus Thomas

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup, sort of. Initially, owners and drafters wanted to know if Thomas was going to head into the season with the starting role. After the season started, the searches were from owners looking to get the lowdown on his eye-opening season-opening performance. Owners looking for information regarding the potential Al Harrington-to-Chicago trade searched for Thomas on Wednesday. Then, when Thomas had two consecutive bad games, Thomas searches became less frequent.

There is some bad news – With Thomas, it is all about minutes. In his first three games, his playing time went from 41, to 29 to 26 minutes. Not a good trend. In addition, some people like to conveniently forget that this is the same guy who was in the starting lineup at the beginning of last season. And guess how many games he lasted as a starter last season before his first benching? Six. In addition, the Al Harrington to Chicago rumor, were it ever to come true, would most likely cause Thomas’ fantasy value to plummet.

But ultimately, the news is good – Not only did Thomas start the season opener, he played forty-one minutes. Which is a lot. And he made good use of his minutes, as he put up fifteen points, ten rebounds, three assists, two steals, and a block. Sure, he scored 14 points on 2-of-22 shooting in his next two games, but his coach insists that he’ll give him time to work his way out of his current funk. The bottom line is if you like exciting young players, Thomas is your man. Sure, his inconsistency has been known to cause headaches, but is also capable of delivering satisfying “I told you so” moments for his owners, and many of us live for those moments. Don’t stress too much about trade rumors, and ride him in your starting lineup for as long as he’s getting minutes. Chicago has four games this week, and so he should be in the starting lineups of most owners in ten-team and twelve-team leagues.

Required Reading:

Propaganda on Tyrus

FreeDarko previews every game of the entire NBA season. For example:
“Apr 13 Chicago@Detroit: Amir Johnson and Tyrus Thomas spend the night trying to one-up each other, forcing Sportscenter to run over by five minutes and clip the opening credits to Sports Trivia for Women Who Have Seen Athletes Naked.”

Rotoworld’s Ryan Knaus discusses Thomas’ battle for playing time.

Thomas is opening up and his coaches are listening.

Is Thomas improving?

3. Kelenna Azubuike

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. He has been making good use of his playing time.

There is some bad news – Azubuike is great, but as any owner of a Warrior knows, his coach, Don “Nellie” Nelson is a real pain. In three games this year, Azubuike has played as many as 43 minutes and as few as 22 minutes. Expect his minutes to fluctuate daily and without warning.

But ultimately, the news is good – Even in his 22 minute game, Azubuike managed to throw up 11 shots and score 15 points. Another thing to like about Azubuike is he’s been good in the past: in fourteen November games last year he averaged 13.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. Look for him to average between 25 and 30 minutes per game going forward, and he should continue to make solid contributions to your team.

Required Reading:

A former Pickup of the Day.

2. Mario Chalmers

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. Mario wowed the fantasy basketball world with his 17-8-7 debut

There is some bad news – After wowing the world with his first game, he pulled a Tyrus Thomas and had consecutive clunkers.

But ultimately, the news is good – Well, his second game wasn’t a complete clunker, as he did have eight assists. The bottom line is that you have to feel good about owning a guy with Chalmers’ potential when he is getting a consistent thirty plus minutes a night.

Required Reading:

Darrell Arthur gives Chalmers a vote of confidence.

1. Darrell Arthur

Hot Pickup or Injured? – Hot pickup. His strong NBA debut caused a lot of buzz.

There is some good news – Each year there is a guy who is forced to sit alone in the NBA draft green room while player after player sitting at home in their living room is taken over him. Arthur was that guy, as he wasn’t taken until the twenty-seventh pick because of a rumored kidney problem. He also suffered the indecency of being traded a couple of times immediately following the draft. So, it makes for a great story when he has an impressive game in his NBA debut. Despite the fact that the second and third games of his NBA career were largely forgettable, he appears to have a spot in the rotation, so he’ll have some opportunities to prove his first game wasn’t a fluke.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Hear that sound? That’s the sound of Arthur being thrown back onto the waiver wire by trigger-happy owners. It’s not that Arthur isn’t any good, because he is good, but unlike Chalmers, Arthur loses playing time after he plays poorly, and Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic will continue to steal his minutes. Consider Arthur as someone to watch, but not necessarily someone to pick up.

Required Reading:

Did Arthur pass his English III, Theater Arts, and Algebra II classes during his freshman year in high school?

A pre-NBA draft interview with Arthur.

Steve Smith gives Arthur a vote of confidence.

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