Sunday, March 29, 2009
The Latest NBA Search Market Post!
Rotoworld NBA Season Pass members can read the latest NBA Search Market column by clicking here.
NBA Search Market: Week 22
If your league has playoffs, you're probably just starting your semifinal matchups today. Exciting stuff. Hopefully you've been able to avoid all the injured players listed below!
Players In The Top Ten You Can Consider Dropping
Stephen Jackson – Unless you are in a season-ending surgery league, you can safely drop Jackson.
Corey Maggette – In addition for suffering from a horrible affliction called "Crazy Coach," Maggette has a bruised melon (head). While it is possible that he plays Monday night, it is also possible that he hands in his swipe cards to the team practice facility, cleans out his locker, and jets off to Key West. Given the status of his Jackson (see above), it is probably more likely that he does start the Operation Shutdown sequence. My guess is he provides two excellent games from here on out, but he also misses a few and has a few clunkers. Is that worth waiting for? You decide.
Gilbert Arenas – If you are in a weekly-lineup setting league, he's not worth holding onto. However, if you are in a daily league, and if you have bravery in your DNA, and then you sign up to ride the Areanas Rollercoaster. He had ten assists in his first game back. That's pretty good. Pencil in 7-10 more for each Wiz homegame he decides to play in.
Kevin Garnett – How did playing Garnett last week work out for you? Not so well? I'm guess you're a little gunshy about starting him this week, then. Garnett might play Friday, but I wouldn't hold your breath. I wouldn't drop Garnett, but in some leagues that might be the smart thing to do.
Troy Murphy – Troy might be back before the season ends. Which means, if you are in a weekly league, you might get him for your finals matchup. Or you might not. So if you need healthy players to win now (which most of us do), then you should cut him. But if you have a deep bench and can slide Troy onto it, do that.
Josh Howard – It has been difficult to get accurate reports on Howard, but one of the things we do know is that he is going to need surgery on his ankle. I've given up hope on him, quite honestly. Drop him for non-dunking JJ Barea and move on, I say.
Here is the NBA Search Market Timeline:
Players that can help you
Devin Harris – Harris has returned from injury to post two solid games. While Harris owners should be concerned that the playoff-missing Nets will shut Harris down at some point, he's a great play for now.
Richard Hamilton – UConn! UConn! Sorry. Rip returned after missing six games to post two solid games. Like Butler below, he might miss more time, but he's a must start until that time comes.
Caron Butler – UConn! UConn! Sorry again. So as you can clearly see, Caron knows how to get the job done when he is on the court. After missing seven games with a day-to-day injury (which was clearly more of a week-to-week thing), he returned to post two solid games. He might miss a few more games along the way, but until then he is a must start.
Move along, nothing to see here
Mike Taylor – Baron Davis missed time with to deal with a fight against a stomach ulcer, but he should be returning soon. When he does, Taylor loses all, or most, of his fantasy value. Then again, should we be trusting Baron Davis after he has betrayed our trust all season by being, well, terrible? If you are the gambling type, you can run with Taylor as far as he will take you.
Players In The Top Ten You Can Consider Dropping
Stephen Jackson – Unless you are in a season-ending surgery league, you can safely drop Jackson.
Corey Maggette – In addition for suffering from a horrible affliction called "Crazy Coach," Maggette has a bruised melon (head). While it is possible that he plays Monday night, it is also possible that he hands in his swipe cards to the team practice facility, cleans out his locker, and jets off to Key West. Given the status of his Jackson (see above), it is probably more likely that he does start the Operation Shutdown sequence. My guess is he provides two excellent games from here on out, but he also misses a few and has a few clunkers. Is that worth waiting for? You decide.
Gilbert Arenas – If you are in a weekly-lineup setting league, he's not worth holding onto. However, if you are in a daily league, and if you have bravery in your DNA, and then you sign up to ride the Areanas Rollercoaster. He had ten assists in his first game back. That's pretty good. Pencil in 7-10 more for each Wiz homegame he decides to play in.
Kevin Garnett – How did playing Garnett last week work out for you? Not so well? I'm guess you're a little gunshy about starting him this week, then. Garnett might play Friday, but I wouldn't hold your breath. I wouldn't drop Garnett, but in some leagues that might be the smart thing to do.
Troy Murphy – Troy might be back before the season ends. Which means, if you are in a weekly league, you might get him for your finals matchup. Or you might not. So if you need healthy players to win now (which most of us do), then you should cut him. But if you have a deep bench and can slide Troy onto it, do that.
Josh Howard – It has been difficult to get accurate reports on Howard, but one of the things we do know is that he is going to need surgery on his ankle. I've given up hope on him, quite honestly. Drop him for non-dunking JJ Barea and move on, I say.
Here is the NBA Search Market Timeline:
Players that can help you
Devin Harris – Harris has returned from injury to post two solid games. While Harris owners should be concerned that the playoff-missing Nets will shut Harris down at some point, he's a great play for now.
Richard Hamilton – UConn! UConn! Sorry. Rip returned after missing six games to post two solid games. Like Butler below, he might miss more time, but he's a must start until that time comes.
Caron Butler – UConn! UConn! Sorry again. So as you can clearly see, Caron knows how to get the job done when he is on the court. After missing seven games with a day-to-day injury (which was clearly more of a week-to-week thing), he returned to post two solid games. He might miss a few more games along the way, but until then he is a must start.
Move along, nothing to see here
Mike Taylor – Baron Davis missed time with to deal with a fight against a stomach ulcer, but he should be returning soon. When he does, Taylor loses all, or most, of his fantasy value. Then again, should we be trusting Baron Davis after he has betrayed our trust all season by being, well, terrible? If you are the gambling type, you can run with Taylor as far as he will take you.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 21
Playoff time! For those of you who are owners of teams that are playoffs-bound, congratulations. For those of you who were able to secure a first-round playoff bye, even better. If you didn't make your playoffs, why are you even reading this? Go check out what's on your TiVo instead.
Injured Players In The Top Ten Most Searched You Can Consider Dropping
Andris Biedrins – If you have a deep bench or a place on your roster to store your injured players, the best move is to hold Biedrins and hope he returns later in the fantasy playoffs. If you have a normal-sized roster, you should drop Biedrins and pick up anyone on that might help your team this week or next week. I know it is hard to drop Andris, but I really think it is the right play. If it makes you feel better, I just dropped him in my ten-team league. Think of it this way: Biedrins might help your team for one week (the final week of the fantasy season), but that won't matter much if your team gets knocked out of the playoffs this week or next week. Play to win now (within reason…don't go dropping Mehmet Okur just because he missed one game with a finger-poked eyeball). There is one other smart rule to follow: avoid all players coached by Nellie. Which brings me to my next point…
Jamal Crawford. – Crawford and his coach Don "Nellie" Nelson are currently engaged in a battle of wits, a test of wills. Who will win? I don't know. Probably Nellie. In the meantime, fantasy owners lose. So instead of having Crawford and his uncertainty (and 41% FG%) clogging up your bench, go out and get someone who can help you win now. This is the playoffs. Go for broke.
Leandro Barbosa – You aren't going to start him this week. You aren't going to start him next week (when his team plays five (5!) games). You might be able to start him for the final week of the season (April 6th – 17th). But then again, you might not. Drop Barbosa and get a sure thing off the wire. I just did it in my league.
Allen Iverson – Detroit is a complete mess. Iverson is tempting to hold (or pick up off the wire), but the truth is there are a number of other players that might be on your waiver wire that could help you more. In fact, I'm going to discuss a bunch of them below. Stay tuned.
Injured Players That You Should Keep (For Now)
Dwyane Wade – Wade is playing excellent basketball right now. He is reportedly dealing with sore knees, but the team is going to hold him out of practices for the rest of the season to help keep him fresh.
Kevin Garnett – I'd start Garnett this week in weekly leagues. Sure, his minutes might be reduced, but 20-30 minutes from Garnett are better than most bench options. And, if you get lucky, Garnett might return to his typical workload this week. So playing Garnett should work out for you. If it backfires, you can't fault yourself for starting a healthy Kevin Garnett.
Devin Harris – Anyone else get the sense that Harris' injury is more serious than the Nets are letting on? I hope I'm wrong. Harris might play on Friday against the Lakers. The good news is that his team in the playoff hunt, so if he can play he will play.
Richard Hamilton – Rip has missed four games and will probably miss a fifth. He should play two or three games this week. This doesn't help weekly leaguers, but you should have Rip back for your playoff matchup next week.
Manu Ginobili – My Manu optimism from last week didn't help Manu get his butt back on the court. Sounds like he feels he is ready to play, but his coach is holding him back. His coach, it seems, understands that the regular season of the NBA is rather meaningless for a team like the Spurs. He wants Manu healthy for the playoffs. We, however, want Manu playing for OUR playoffs. Manu has been practicing with the team, so I think we seem Manu play in one or two games this week.
Caron Butler – Guys who are day-to-day rarely miss five games. Caron has. He might miss a few more. Or, he might start as early as Monday. We'll know more after his Monday shootaround.
A Few Guys Who Might Be On Your Waiver Wire
Remember when Ramon Sessions suddenly became crazy good for the last few weeks of the 2008 season? One of these players might end up being the Ramon Sessions of 2009:
(Note: it is possible that the phrase "Ramon Sessions of 2009" is already become clichéd. I know I've heard it a few times already. Sorry if my use of this cliché offended your sensibilities.)
Thabo Sefolosha – It is important to keep in mind that Thabo's numbers from earlier this month might have been inflated from Thabo needing to pick up the slack with Durant sitting out a few games, but Thabo is still a viable option in most leagues.
Spencer Hawes – Dude just had a near triple double. Plus, he's a second-year player and so you don't have to worry about him hitting a rookie wall.
Trevor Ariza – I just dropped Corey Maggette in one league to pick him up. I'm pretty high on his chances of being a fantasy force for the rest of the season. His steal totals alone will help you win your playoff matchups. I wonder if he's available, though. Probably not, right? Hopefully you were able to get him.
Sam Dalembert – Folks in head-to-head leagues should figure out which categories they want to target in their playoff matchups. If you find you need helping beefing up your rebounds, blocks, and a low turnover rate, Samuel might be your man.
Renaldo Balkman – Only 5% owned, but he's quietly put 10 points and 10 rebounds over the last 8 games (in 24 minutes). Denver is only going to play Kenyon Martin in the first half of games, and so Balkman should continue to get consistent minutes. He was unusable in the past because he would frequently ride the bench, but he's played in five straight at press time.
Brandon Wright – I'm not super keen on Wright, Arron Afflalo, or Keyon Dooling, but if you have to pick one, go with Wright, as his coach is crazy enough to suddenly start playing him 40 minutes a night.
Jamario Moon – Moon's minutes have increased to 30 minutes per game in March. His stats haven't been that great, but because Moon does a little of everything, all it would take is for him to suddenly start hitting for 10-15 points a game for him to be very valuable. Moon is certainly someone to keep an eye on. Same for Dominic McGuire.
Francisco Garcia – Garcia's finger injury scared off a lot of owners, but it is possible that Garcia gets into a groove and becomes the MVP of your team. He has had really good stretches in the past.
Chris Andersen – If Andersen were suddenly to start getting consistent minutes, can you imagine the block totals he would rack up?
Andray Blatche – A post-injury sleeper, if you will. He's been playing well of late, and if he ever starts getting more than 27 minutes a game, he might be able to help your team quite a bit.
Louis Williams – Another guy who could do some damage if he were to suddenly start getting more than 25 minutes per game.
Steve Novak – Sometimes guys getting 20 minutes per game in March get 35 minutes per game in April. Keep an eye on this three-point specialist, especially if you are in a daily league.
Kyle Korver – He's got a five-game week next week. Try to get any Jazz player, but Korver is one of the few that might actually be on the wire. And if he were to suddenly get more playing time, he'd be fantasy playoff gold.
Injured Players In The Top Ten Most Searched You Can Consider Dropping
Andris Biedrins – If you have a deep bench or a place on your roster to store your injured players, the best move is to hold Biedrins and hope he returns later in the fantasy playoffs. If you have a normal-sized roster, you should drop Biedrins and pick up anyone on that might help your team this week or next week. I know it is hard to drop Andris, but I really think it is the right play. If it makes you feel better, I just dropped him in my ten-team league. Think of it this way: Biedrins might help your team for one week (the final week of the fantasy season), but that won't matter much if your team gets knocked out of the playoffs this week or next week. Play to win now (within reason…don't go dropping Mehmet Okur just because he missed one game with a finger-poked eyeball). There is one other smart rule to follow: avoid all players coached by Nellie. Which brings me to my next point…
Jamal Crawford. – Crawford and his coach Don "Nellie" Nelson are currently engaged in a battle of wits, a test of wills. Who will win? I don't know. Probably Nellie. In the meantime, fantasy owners lose. So instead of having Crawford and his uncertainty (and 41% FG%) clogging up your bench, go out and get someone who can help you win now. This is the playoffs. Go for broke.
Leandro Barbosa – You aren't going to start him this week. You aren't going to start him next week (when his team plays five (5!) games). You might be able to start him for the final week of the season (April 6th – 17th). But then again, you might not. Drop Barbosa and get a sure thing off the wire. I just did it in my league.
Allen Iverson – Detroit is a complete mess. Iverson is tempting to hold (or pick up off the wire), but the truth is there are a number of other players that might be on your waiver wire that could help you more. In fact, I'm going to discuss a bunch of them below. Stay tuned.
Injured Players That You Should Keep (For Now)
Dwyane Wade – Wade is playing excellent basketball right now. He is reportedly dealing with sore knees, but the team is going to hold him out of practices for the rest of the season to help keep him fresh.
Kevin Garnett – I'd start Garnett this week in weekly leagues. Sure, his minutes might be reduced, but 20-30 minutes from Garnett are better than most bench options. And, if you get lucky, Garnett might return to his typical workload this week. So playing Garnett should work out for you. If it backfires, you can't fault yourself for starting a healthy Kevin Garnett.
Devin Harris – Anyone else get the sense that Harris' injury is more serious than the Nets are letting on? I hope I'm wrong. Harris might play on Friday against the Lakers. The good news is that his team in the playoff hunt, so if he can play he will play.
Richard Hamilton – Rip has missed four games and will probably miss a fifth. He should play two or three games this week. This doesn't help weekly leaguers, but you should have Rip back for your playoff matchup next week.
Manu Ginobili – My Manu optimism from last week didn't help Manu get his butt back on the court. Sounds like he feels he is ready to play, but his coach is holding him back. His coach, it seems, understands that the regular season of the NBA is rather meaningless for a team like the Spurs. He wants Manu healthy for the playoffs. We, however, want Manu playing for OUR playoffs. Manu has been practicing with the team, so I think we seem Manu play in one or two games this week.
Caron Butler – Guys who are day-to-day rarely miss five games. Caron has. He might miss a few more. Or, he might start as early as Monday. We'll know more after his Monday shootaround.
A Few Guys Who Might Be On Your Waiver Wire
Remember when Ramon Sessions suddenly became crazy good for the last few weeks of the 2008 season? One of these players might end up being the Ramon Sessions of 2009:
(Note: it is possible that the phrase "Ramon Sessions of 2009" is already become clichéd. I know I've heard it a few times already. Sorry if my use of this cliché offended your sensibilities.)
Thabo Sefolosha – It is important to keep in mind that Thabo's numbers from earlier this month might have been inflated from Thabo needing to pick up the slack with Durant sitting out a few games, but Thabo is still a viable option in most leagues.
Spencer Hawes – Dude just had a near triple double. Plus, he's a second-year player and so you don't have to worry about him hitting a rookie wall.
Trevor Ariza – I just dropped Corey Maggette in one league to pick him up. I'm pretty high on his chances of being a fantasy force for the rest of the season. His steal totals alone will help you win your playoff matchups. I wonder if he's available, though. Probably not, right? Hopefully you were able to get him.
Sam Dalembert – Folks in head-to-head leagues should figure out which categories they want to target in their playoff matchups. If you find you need helping beefing up your rebounds, blocks, and a low turnover rate, Samuel might be your man.
Renaldo Balkman – Only 5% owned, but he's quietly put 10 points and 10 rebounds over the last 8 games (in 24 minutes). Denver is only going to play Kenyon Martin in the first half of games, and so Balkman should continue to get consistent minutes. He was unusable in the past because he would frequently ride the bench, but he's played in five straight at press time.
Brandon Wright – I'm not super keen on Wright, Arron Afflalo, or Keyon Dooling, but if you have to pick one, go with Wright, as his coach is crazy enough to suddenly start playing him 40 minutes a night.
Jamario Moon – Moon's minutes have increased to 30 minutes per game in March. His stats haven't been that great, but because Moon does a little of everything, all it would take is for him to suddenly start hitting for 10-15 points a game for him to be very valuable. Moon is certainly someone to keep an eye on. Same for Dominic McGuire.
Francisco Garcia – Garcia's finger injury scared off a lot of owners, but it is possible that Garcia gets into a groove and becomes the MVP of your team. He has had really good stretches in the past.
Chris Andersen – If Andersen were suddenly to start getting consistent minutes, can you imagine the block totals he would rack up?
Andray Blatche – A post-injury sleeper, if you will. He's been playing well of late, and if he ever starts getting more than 27 minutes a game, he might be able to help your team quite a bit.
Louis Williams – Another guy who could do some damage if he were to suddenly start getting more than 25 minutes per game.
Steve Novak – Sometimes guys getting 20 minutes per game in March get 35 minutes per game in April. Keep an eye on this three-point specialist, especially if you are in a daily league.
Kyle Korver – He's got a five-game week next week. Try to get any Jazz player, but Korver is one of the few that might actually be on the wire. And if he were to suddenly get more playing time, he'd be fantasy playoff gold.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 20
Pure Excitement
Kevin Durant – Not all players returning from injury are equal. Some, like Granger (see below), will need a few games to play themselves back into a groove. Durant’s return, however, was a completely positive experience: he played 40 minutes, he scored 22 points, but most importantly, he looked healthy out there on the court.
Hedo Turkoglu – Hedo is another player who recently returned from injury. His first night back was also a good sign for his owners, as he played 37 minutes and was left in the game even when the game’s outcome was no longer in doubt. Before missing two games with his foot injury, Hedo was having one of the worst seasons of his career shooting percentage-wise. Hedo, who shot 45.6% last year, is shooting 40.8% this year. He’s showed signs of turning things around in February (he shot 43%, his best month of the season), so hopefully now that he is healthy he can get his shooting percentage back in the mid-forties where it belongs.
Monta Ellis – At the beginning of the season, there was a lot of doom and gloom being spouted regarding the injuries of the following players: Manu Ginobili, Gilbert Arenas, and Monta Ellis. Manu proved useful for a few months in the middle of the season but is currently dealing with a stress fracture. Gilbert proved completely and utterly useless. And Monta Ellis, now three games into his comeback, has been a complete godsend to fantasy owners trying to make a late playoff push. In his last game, Monta played 41 minutes and scored 26 points on 12-of-19 shooting. Gold.
LeBron James – Did it scare the absolute farts out of you when LeBron crashed into Grant Hill and hurt his knee? Me too. But you have no need to worry. LeBron just missed a triple double in his next game.
Here is the NBA Search Market Timeline:
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – Granger’s first game back was a little rough: 3-of-11, 10 points, 1-of-7 on his three point attempts. Granger has been out a long time, and so it could easily take him a few games to work himself back into shape. Expect a few choppy outings this week. I own him in a weekly league, and I kept him on my bench this week. Why? Easy. A quasi-healthy Granger can be dangerous to any owner hoping to have a chance to win the field goal percentage category. Granger could easily jack up a shot a minute in his next few games, and I highly doubt he’ll make more than 40% of them. Give him a week. After that, he should be good to go, just in time for the fantasy basketball playoffs, too.
Randy Foye – Foye is one of those players who plays best when he is in a groove. This year, that groove happened in January, when he scored 19.4 points a game on 44.8% shooting. In the eighteen games he’s played since January, he’s scored almost as many points per game, but his average shooting percentage has been below 39%. After missing two games last week with an ankle injury, Foye returned to the court to score nine points in 31 minutes. He should be back in the starting lineup on Tuesday, and while it is likely that he’ll resume scoring just under 20 points a game, I highly doubt he’ll get into any sort of groove that has him shooting 45% from the field.
Manu Ginobili – For those of you in weekly leagues, it is entirely possible that Manu won’t help you make the playoffs, as he will probably miss 1-2 more weeks. If, however, you have already made the playoffs, I am completely confident that Manu will help your team. The Spurs have a solid playoff schedule, and Manu has a knack for coming up big. I’m bullish on Manu. I don’t quite know why, but I trust that he will do everything he can to return and will play well the moment he steps back onto the court. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Manu were to play in a game later this week.* We’ll see.
*Do you think Manu will play in a game this week? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Unmitigated Wariness
Andris Biedrins – We’ve seen this before: Andris tweaks his ankle and misses a week. Given the fact that we are entering the final week of the regular fantasy season, Andris’ timing is a little annoying, but if you have a playoff spot locked up you should feel confident that Andris will be able to help your team come playoff time.
Active Worry
Marvin Williams – Marvin is going to missing 4-6 weeks with a back injury, thus making him irrelevant for fantasy purposes for the remainder of the year. We had such high hopes for Marvin at the beginning of the season, didn’t we? He’s still young, and so he could break out at some point, but it is looking increasingly likely that Williams is, at best, a 14/5 player. Again, he’s still young, so he could prove me wrong yet, but I’m certainly not going to go out of my way to target him in drafts for the 2009-2010 season.
Josh Howard – It’s not quite official yet, but it is starting to look like Josh Howard will miss the rest of the regular season. If you are in a tight battle to make the playoffs, you should strongly consider dropping Howard in order to pick up someone off the waiver wire who might help you win now.
Kevin Durant – Not all players returning from injury are equal. Some, like Granger (see below), will need a few games to play themselves back into a groove. Durant’s return, however, was a completely positive experience: he played 40 minutes, he scored 22 points, but most importantly, he looked healthy out there on the court.
Hedo Turkoglu – Hedo is another player who recently returned from injury. His first night back was also a good sign for his owners, as he played 37 minutes and was left in the game even when the game’s outcome was no longer in doubt. Before missing two games with his foot injury, Hedo was having one of the worst seasons of his career shooting percentage-wise. Hedo, who shot 45.6% last year, is shooting 40.8% this year. He’s showed signs of turning things around in February (he shot 43%, his best month of the season), so hopefully now that he is healthy he can get his shooting percentage back in the mid-forties where it belongs.
Monta Ellis – At the beginning of the season, there was a lot of doom and gloom being spouted regarding the injuries of the following players: Manu Ginobili, Gilbert Arenas, and Monta Ellis. Manu proved useful for a few months in the middle of the season but is currently dealing with a stress fracture. Gilbert proved completely and utterly useless. And Monta Ellis, now three games into his comeback, has been a complete godsend to fantasy owners trying to make a late playoff push. In his last game, Monta played 41 minutes and scored 26 points on 12-of-19 shooting. Gold.
LeBron James – Did it scare the absolute farts out of you when LeBron crashed into Grant Hill and hurt his knee? Me too. But you have no need to worry. LeBron just missed a triple double in his next game.
Here is the NBA Search Market Timeline:
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – Granger’s first game back was a little rough: 3-of-11, 10 points, 1-of-7 on his three point attempts. Granger has been out a long time, and so it could easily take him a few games to work himself back into shape. Expect a few choppy outings this week. I own him in a weekly league, and I kept him on my bench this week. Why? Easy. A quasi-healthy Granger can be dangerous to any owner hoping to have a chance to win the field goal percentage category. Granger could easily jack up a shot a minute in his next few games, and I highly doubt he’ll make more than 40% of them. Give him a week. After that, he should be good to go, just in time for the fantasy basketball playoffs, too.
Randy Foye – Foye is one of those players who plays best when he is in a groove. This year, that groove happened in January, when he scored 19.4 points a game on 44.8% shooting. In the eighteen games he’s played since January, he’s scored almost as many points per game, but his average shooting percentage has been below 39%. After missing two games last week with an ankle injury, Foye returned to the court to score nine points in 31 minutes. He should be back in the starting lineup on Tuesday, and while it is likely that he’ll resume scoring just under 20 points a game, I highly doubt he’ll get into any sort of groove that has him shooting 45% from the field.
Manu Ginobili – For those of you in weekly leagues, it is entirely possible that Manu won’t help you make the playoffs, as he will probably miss 1-2 more weeks. If, however, you have already made the playoffs, I am completely confident that Manu will help your team. The Spurs have a solid playoff schedule, and Manu has a knack for coming up big. I’m bullish on Manu. I don’t quite know why, but I trust that he will do everything he can to return and will play well the moment he steps back onto the court. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Manu were to play in a game later this week.* We’ll see.
Unmitigated Wariness
Andris Biedrins – We’ve seen this before: Andris tweaks his ankle and misses a week. Given the fact that we are entering the final week of the regular fantasy season, Andris’ timing is a little annoying, but if you have a playoff spot locked up you should feel confident that Andris will be able to help your team come playoff time.
Active Worry
Marvin Williams – Marvin is going to missing 4-6 weeks with a back injury, thus making him irrelevant for fantasy purposes for the remainder of the year. We had such high hopes for Marvin at the beginning of the season, didn’t we? He’s still young, and so he could break out at some point, but it is looking increasingly likely that Williams is, at best, a 14/5 player. Again, he’s still young, so he could prove me wrong yet, but I’m certainly not going to go out of my way to target him in drafts for the 2009-2010 season.
Josh Howard – It’s not quite official yet, but it is starting to look like Josh Howard will miss the rest of the regular season. If you are in a tight battle to make the playoffs, you should strongly consider dropping Howard in order to pick up someone off the waiver wire who might help you win now.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 19
Kevin Durant – Have you ever been watching a really good DVD and been interrupted for a few minutes by a phone call from your aunt? Durant’s ankle injury is your aunt. And that DVD will continue to be good after you hit the play button to start it up again. I will admit that the aunt / DVD thing is pretty stupid, but it did give me fond memories of Larry Johnson back in the day.
Here is new, 2009-style version of the NBA Search Timeline:
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – Granger was said to be out from 10-to-21 days. As of now, he’s missed 18 days. Rumor is he’ll be back on Tuesday. I wouldn’t dare start him in weekly leagues until I’d seen him play, but I would allow myself to begin to get teary-eyed when thinking about how much better my fantasy basketball team will be when Granger finally does return.
Caron Butler – Butler is back after missing a few games due to injury. Get him into your lineup as he has a four-game week this week. One more thing: I know most trade deadlines have passed, but if yours hasn’t I’d look to unload Butler. For a guy that was sometimes drafted late first round, early second round, he’s been pretty disappointing (he’s been somewhere around the 40th best fantasy basketball player this year), but perhaps there is an owner out there that will give you good value based on Butler’s cache.
Eric Gordon – Gordon returned after missing four games and scored an eye-opening 35 points. I’m not sold that his injury troubles are over, but his scoring outburst was certainly a good sign.
Zach Randolph – Randolph missed two games to be with his ill father. He retuned to post his usual 20/10 line. Carry on.
Jeff Green and Thabo Sefolsosha – Green, who has missed three games with a back injury, warmed up with the team on Sunday and nearly played. If I owned him in a weekly league, I wouldn’t start him this week, as he only has a three-game week and it isn’t worth the risk. Thabo missed a game with a knee injury, but he returned on Sunday and played 38 minutes. If Green and Durant miss a few more games, Thabo could end up being a great short-term play.
Pure Excitement
Unmitigated Wariness
Luol Deng – Until more news about Deng’s stress fracture is known, you should certainly keep Deng benched. Folks in weekly leagues should not start him. Consider him to be day-to-day with a possibility of being lost for the season. Not a good prognosis, but it could obviously be worse.
*Would you rather have Deng (over Antonio McDyess) the rest of the way? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Active Worry
Drew Gooden – So Gooden is a Spur. Interesting. Or is it? Buser thinks Gooden will only get about 20 minutes per game as a Spur. If true, this would make Gooden very uninteresting. Perhaps I’d be more interested in Gooden if I didn’t have the sense that he was losing a battle with a sports hernia. So I guess the only interesting thing that remains to be said about Gooden is the remarkable consistency with which he’s put up stats throughout his career. He might make his Spur debut sometime later this week.
Josh Howard – This just isn’t Howard’s year. He’s spent the last few days visiting ankle specialists, and if you own him right now, you should start preparing yourself for the possibility that he doesn’t play again this season. On the other hand, he’s currently day-to-day, and perhaps we find out on Monday that he’ll be fine. Let’s hope so.
Here is new, 2009-style version of the NBA Search Timeline:
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – Granger was said to be out from 10-to-21 days. As of now, he’s missed 18 days. Rumor is he’ll be back on Tuesday. I wouldn’t dare start him in weekly leagues until I’d seen him play, but I would allow myself to begin to get teary-eyed when thinking about how much better my fantasy basketball team will be when Granger finally does return.
Caron Butler – Butler is back after missing a few games due to injury. Get him into your lineup as he has a four-game week this week. One more thing: I know most trade deadlines have passed, but if yours hasn’t I’d look to unload Butler. For a guy that was sometimes drafted late first round, early second round, he’s been pretty disappointing (he’s been somewhere around the 40th best fantasy basketball player this year), but perhaps there is an owner out there that will give you good value based on Butler’s cache.
Eric Gordon – Gordon returned after missing four games and scored an eye-opening 35 points. I’m not sold that his injury troubles are over, but his scoring outburst was certainly a good sign.
Zach Randolph – Randolph missed two games to be with his ill father. He retuned to post his usual 20/10 line. Carry on.
Jeff Green and Thabo Sefolsosha – Green, who has missed three games with a back injury, warmed up with the team on Sunday and nearly played. If I owned him in a weekly league, I wouldn’t start him this week, as he only has a three-game week and it isn’t worth the risk. Thabo missed a game with a knee injury, but he returned on Sunday and played 38 minutes. If Green and Durant miss a few more games, Thabo could end up being a great short-term play.
Pure Excitement
Unmitigated Wariness
Luol Deng – Until more news about Deng’s stress fracture is known, you should certainly keep Deng benched. Folks in weekly leagues should not start him. Consider him to be day-to-day with a possibility of being lost for the season. Not a good prognosis, but it could obviously be worse.
Active Worry
Drew Gooden – So Gooden is a Spur. Interesting. Or is it? Buser thinks Gooden will only get about 20 minutes per game as a Spur. If true, this would make Gooden very uninteresting. Perhaps I’d be more interested in Gooden if I didn’t have the sense that he was losing a battle with a sports hernia. So I guess the only interesting thing that remains to be said about Gooden is the remarkable consistency with which he’s put up stats throughout his career. He might make his Spur debut sometime later this week.
Josh Howard – This just isn’t Howard’s year. He’s spent the last few days visiting ankle specialists, and if you own him right now, you should start preparing yourself for the possibility that he doesn’t play again this season. On the other hand, he’s currently day-to-day, and perhaps we find out on Monday that he’ll be fine. Let’s hope so.
Friday, March 6, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 18
I'm going to start this week off with a prediction: many of you have already begun to turn your attentions to fantasy baseball. Your draft is in eighteen days, and you're scrambling to find a secret list of fantasy baseball players that might surprise in 2009. You google searched "secret fantasy baseball list" as well as some variations of this theme, but you have yet to find it. Tick tock. How can you have a good baseball draft if you don't have a secret list?
My suggestion? Focus! Don't bring your fantasy baseball brain into this column! It is basketball crunch time right now, and you need to start focusing on how to get a top two seed in the playoffs, or how to make the playoffs, or (and hopefully this isn't the case) how to get your team out of the cellar and avoid all the embarrassment that comes with a last place team. So let's get to work.
So here is what we're going to do. After briefly catching you up to date on the ten players you insisted on searching for this week, I'm going to discuss a few additional players that should be in the top ten most searched players. Deal? Okay, let's get started.
Pure Excitement
Mike Bibby – Bibby caught a flu bug that's been going around. His long-term outlook remains great, but his short-term outlook will probably include a few sluggish games until he regains his strength. His first game back he certainly looked sluggish, as he played 19 minutes and didn't score a point. But rather than dwell on that, let's instead take a moment to recognize how good Mike Bibby has been this year (and when I say this year, I mean the beginning of the season up until January. After that things get hazy). UPDATE: Yes, January, February, and now March have been pretty tough on Bibby. But he's better than this (see November and December). And he appears to be over his bout of flu.
Okay, moment over. Moving on.
Delonte West – Be honest: when I asked you for a moment of quiet time in honor of Mike Bibby, did you find your mind drifting to thoughts of Delonte West? West has also been very good this year, and as long as his wrist soreness doesn't slow him down, he should continue to rack up big nights playing next to LeBron.
Steve Nash – Nash is day-to-day with a sprained ankle, but it sounds like he'll be back on the court soon. Back in time for this week, you ask? Well, the team that has Nash in my weekly league has him on the bench for the upcoming week. However, I could certainly see others wanting to start him. I'd probably start him if I owned him: he's got a four-game week and his first game is Tuesday. Hopefully he plays tonight (Sunday night) and makes your decision easier. UPDATE: Nash will not play Sunday night. SECOND UPDATE: Nash returned to play 37 and 40 minutes in his first two games back after missing three games with an ankle injury.
Nene Hilario – Nene returned earlier than expected. Rejoice! Look for his minutes to gradually increase over the next few games. Update: Nene is back to doing what he does (he played 34 minutes Thursday night).
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – 80% of you think Granger will be a top 15 player from the time he steps back on the court until the end of the season. If that isn't optimisim, I don't know what is. Latest reports are that he's healing slowing, but the optimism in me is hoping that his time off will help his knees heal up. Granger is worried that he's starting to lose fitness, but hopefully he's at least been running in the pool to get his heartrate up. Oh, and it should be noted that Granger is in the 11th day of his initial 10 days-to-three-week window. UPDATE: Granger's injury is apparently healing fine, and he was nearly ready to play a few times this week. Perhaps he'll give it a go this weekend. If you play in a weekly league, you may want to hold him out for one more week.
Tim Duncan – Duncan is scheduled to return tonight (Sunday), and should be fine going forward. UPDATE: Tim might be playing with Drew Gooden soon.
Unmitigated Wariness
Stephon Marbury – I had decided in my head that if Marbury ever made it back into the top ten most searched players, I would ignore him and pretend he wasn't there. I am breaking that mental promise right now, but only to instruct you to continue to not care about anything Marbury. I refuse to believe that he'll be useful, except maybe in the deepest of leagues. But in your typical ten and twelve team leagues, the fact that Marbury is now on the Celtics should mean nothing to you. My point is harder to make when the only data we have is the one game Marbury has played in so far: eight points, two rebounds, and three assists in 13 minutes. If you were to convert those stats to a 39 minute night by Marbury, he'd have had 24 points, six rebounds, and nine assists. Sounds pretty good. But don't believe it. Fools gold. Let someone else nab Marbury. I feel like I might be in the minority in holding this position. Am I?*
*Do you think Marbury will have fantasy relevance this year in typical 10 and 12 team leagues? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Active Worry
Greg Oden – Oden will miss his seventh straight game tonight. As I said last week, I tend to be aggressive, sometimes overly so, but I'd drop Oden for something, anything, else. If you trade deadline is March 5th, you might want to see if you can trade Oden for the worst player on someone else's team. UPDATE: Oden was just dropped in one of my ten-team leagues. Nobody moved to pick him up.
Drew Gooden – An aggressive league-mate in my ten team league dropped Gooden last week and nobody picked him up. Sure, his one-game outburst for the Kings was impressive (12 points, 13 boards), but I have no confidence that he can hold his body together for the long haul. The has groin/hernia issues up the, er, wazzu. UPDATE: Gooden is now a Spur. He might be a nice speculative grab if he's available, but my guess is he doesn't play more than twenty minutes a game for the Spurs.
Jason Terry – Terry was told by doctors that he wouldn't be able to return from his injury until late March, which is probably too late to help most fantasy teams. And now, suddenly there are reports of Terry practicing. But I don't believe that practicing means he'll be able to help your team in March. Dude has a broken hand. There is no way to recover "faster" when your bones are broke. So I would not run out and pick him up. Let someone else follow that tease. But what if I'm wrong, you say? What if I'm wrong and all it cost to get Terry's sweet stats was dropping the worst player on my team, who I didn't like anyway? Good point. So maybe there are some instances where dropping a player for Terry makes sense. But I wouldn't drop Francisco Garcia for him, for example. Or Jarrett Jack. Or Larry Hughes. You get the idea. UPDATE: Jason Terry returned...tonight (Sunday night). He didn't look great (8 points), but hey, he played. So I guess I was wrong on this one. Dead wrong. Hope you got your man!
Speaking of Jack, Garcia, and Hughes, those are the exact folks that I think should be in the top ten most search players for this week. Here's why:
Jarrett Jack – Who knew that Jack, a career 44% shooter, could shoot over 49% for any stretch of time, let alone an entire month. He's probably not available in most active leagues, but I feel like it needs to be noted that his 16 points, 4.1 rebound, 3.4 assist, 1.3 steal, .4 block for the month of February was impressive. With Dunleavy done, Jack should continue to be able to jack up shots, and hopefully he is able to continue to make a high percentage of them.
Larry Hughes – Hughes is one of those rare players who can manage to score over 22 points while shooting under 39% (he did this in the 1999 – 2000 season). Now that he's going to be getting starter minutes for the Knicks, look for him to rival Al Harrington and Nate Robinson for most shot attempts. What do I mean with all my snarky comments? Hughes will help you in some leagues and hurt you in others. If you need to protect your shooting percentage in a smaller league that starts fewer players, don't bother with Hughes. But if you are in a bigger league that can absorb Hughes' 40% shooting, get him if he is able to be gotten.
Francisco Garcia – I've always been a big fan of guys who do a little bit in each category but aren't flashy in any single category. These are the guys that tend to be undervalued. Garcia has been great of late, and as long as he can hold onto his starting spot, he should continue to be a huge asset. It is also worth noting that Garcia and the Kings have a sold 4-2-4-4 schedule in the fantasy playoffs. Perhaps look to target him before any impending trade deadlines pass. UPDATE: Garcia has a non-displaced fracture in his finger, and so it would probably be best to see how much it bothers him before trading for him.
My suggestion? Focus! Don't bring your fantasy baseball brain into this column! It is basketball crunch time right now, and you need to start focusing on how to get a top two seed in the playoffs, or how to make the playoffs, or (and hopefully this isn't the case) how to get your team out of the cellar and avoid all the embarrassment that comes with a last place team. So let's get to work.
So here is what we're going to do. After briefly catching you up to date on the ten players you insisted on searching for this week, I'm going to discuss a few additional players that should be in the top ten most searched players. Deal? Okay, let's get started.
Pure Excitement
Mike Bibby – Bibby caught a flu bug that's been going around. His long-term outlook remains great, but his short-term outlook will probably include a few sluggish games until he regains his strength. His first game back he certainly looked sluggish, as he played 19 minutes and didn't score a point. But rather than dwell on that, let's instead take a moment to recognize how good Mike Bibby has been this year (and when I say this year, I mean the beginning of the season up until January. After that things get hazy). UPDATE: Yes, January, February, and now March have been pretty tough on Bibby. But he's better than this (see November and December). And he appears to be over his bout of flu.
Okay, moment over. Moving on.
Delonte West – Be honest: when I asked you for a moment of quiet time in honor of Mike Bibby, did you find your mind drifting to thoughts of Delonte West? West has also been very good this year, and as long as his wrist soreness doesn't slow him down, he should continue to rack up big nights playing next to LeBron.
Steve Nash – Nash is day-to-day with a sprained ankle, but it sounds like he'll be back on the court soon. Back in time for this week, you ask? Well, the team that has Nash in my weekly league has him on the bench for the upcoming week. However, I could certainly see others wanting to start him. I'd probably start him if I owned him: he's got a four-game week and his first game is Tuesday. Hopefully he plays tonight (Sunday night) and makes your decision easier. UPDATE: Nash will not play Sunday night. SECOND UPDATE: Nash returned to play 37 and 40 minutes in his first two games back after missing three games with an ankle injury.
Nene Hilario – Nene returned earlier than expected. Rejoice! Look for his minutes to gradually increase over the next few games. Update: Nene is back to doing what he does (he played 34 minutes Thursday night).
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – 80% of you think Granger will be a top 15 player from the time he steps back on the court until the end of the season. If that isn't optimisim, I don't know what is. Latest reports are that he's healing slowing, but the optimism in me is hoping that his time off will help his knees heal up. Granger is worried that he's starting to lose fitness, but hopefully he's at least been running in the pool to get his heartrate up. Oh, and it should be noted that Granger is in the 11th day of his initial 10 days-to-three-week window. UPDATE: Granger's injury is apparently healing fine, and he was nearly ready to play a few times this week. Perhaps he'll give it a go this weekend. If you play in a weekly league, you may want to hold him out for one more week.
Tim Duncan – Duncan is scheduled to return tonight (Sunday), and should be fine going forward. UPDATE: Tim might be playing with Drew Gooden soon.
Unmitigated Wariness
Stephon Marbury – I had decided in my head that if Marbury ever made it back into the top ten most searched players, I would ignore him and pretend he wasn't there. I am breaking that mental promise right now, but only to instruct you to continue to not care about anything Marbury. I refuse to believe that he'll be useful, except maybe in the deepest of leagues. But in your typical ten and twelve team leagues, the fact that Marbury is now on the Celtics should mean nothing to you. My point is harder to make when the only data we have is the one game Marbury has played in so far: eight points, two rebounds, and three assists in 13 minutes. If you were to convert those stats to a 39 minute night by Marbury, he'd have had 24 points, six rebounds, and nine assists. Sounds pretty good. But don't believe it. Fools gold. Let someone else nab Marbury. I feel like I might be in the minority in holding this position. Am I?*
Active Worry
Greg Oden – Oden will miss his seventh straight game tonight. As I said last week, I tend to be aggressive, sometimes overly so, but I'd drop Oden for something, anything, else. If you trade deadline is March 5th, you might want to see if you can trade Oden for the worst player on someone else's team. UPDATE: Oden was just dropped in one of my ten-team leagues. Nobody moved to pick him up.
Drew Gooden – An aggressive league-mate in my ten team league dropped Gooden last week and nobody picked him up. Sure, his one-game outburst for the Kings was impressive (12 points, 13 boards), but I have no confidence that he can hold his body together for the long haul. The has groin/hernia issues up the, er, wazzu. UPDATE: Gooden is now a Spur. He might be a nice speculative grab if he's available, but my guess is he doesn't play more than twenty minutes a game for the Spurs.
Jason Terry – Terry was told by doctors that he wouldn't be able to return from his injury until late March, which is probably too late to help most fantasy teams. And now, suddenly there are reports of Terry practicing. But I don't believe that practicing means he'll be able to help your team in March. Dude has a broken hand. There is no way to recover "faster" when your bones are broke. So I would not run out and pick him up. Let someone else follow that tease. But what if I'm wrong, you say? What if I'm wrong and all it cost to get Terry's sweet stats was dropping the worst player on my team, who I didn't like anyway? Good point. So maybe there are some instances where dropping a player for Terry makes sense. But I wouldn't drop Francisco Garcia for him, for example. Or Jarrett Jack. Or Larry Hughes. You get the idea. UPDATE: Jason Terry returned...tonight (Sunday night). He didn't look great (8 points), but hey, he played. So I guess I was wrong on this one. Dead wrong. Hope you got your man!
Speaking of Jack, Garcia, and Hughes, those are the exact folks that I think should be in the top ten most search players for this week. Here's why:
Jarrett Jack – Who knew that Jack, a career 44% shooter, could shoot over 49% for any stretch of time, let alone an entire month. He's probably not available in most active leagues, but I feel like it needs to be noted that his 16 points, 4.1 rebound, 3.4 assist, 1.3 steal, .4 block for the month of February was impressive. With Dunleavy done, Jack should continue to be able to jack up shots, and hopefully he is able to continue to make a high percentage of them.
Larry Hughes – Hughes is one of those rare players who can manage to score over 22 points while shooting under 39% (he did this in the 1999 – 2000 season). Now that he's going to be getting starter minutes for the Knicks, look for him to rival Al Harrington and Nate Robinson for most shot attempts. What do I mean with all my snarky comments? Hughes will help you in some leagues and hurt you in others. If you need to protect your shooting percentage in a smaller league that starts fewer players, don't bother with Hughes. But if you are in a bigger league that can absorb Hughes' 40% shooting, get him if he is able to be gotten.
Francisco Garcia – I've always been a big fan of guys who do a little bit in each category but aren't flashy in any single category. These are the guys that tend to be undervalued. Garcia has been great of late, and as long as he can hold onto his starting spot, he should continue to be a huge asset. It is also worth noting that Garcia and the Kings have a sold 4-2-4-4 schedule in the fantasy playoffs. Perhaps look to target him before any impending trade deadlines pass. UPDATE: Garcia has a non-displaced fracture in his finger, and so it would probably be best to see how much it bothers him before trading for him.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 17
Pure Excitement
Chris Bosh – Good thing Bosh took his rehab as seriously as he's been taking his blogging. His return to the court wasn't pretty (he shot 4-for-12), but things will get better quickly. His team looked good in a win today, and perhaps now that Calderon, Marion, Bargnani and Bosh are all reasonably healthy, the Raptors can reel off a few wins.
Prediction: Bosh will score over 25 points in at least one game this week.
Marcus Camby – Ear infection? Bah, I'm not worried Camby's ear infection. In fact, this might be one of the few injuries Camby could get that wouldn't worry me.
Prediction: Get Camby in your lineup, as he should play all four games this upcoming week.
Cautious Optimism
Danny Granger – Is Granger a buy low candidate or someone to avoid at all costs?* First we find out that Granger's knees were flagged by doctors prior to the 2006 draft. Then Granger pops a ligament in his foot. Now we are told that told that Granger may return anywhere from 10 days to three weeks. Things look pretty bleak. So yeah, maybe putting Granger's name in the "optimistic" section is a little forced.
Prediction: Granger, tough man that he is, returns in twelve days.
Andris Biedrins – Biedrins has hinted that he will return on Monday. I'd be more excited about his return, however, if Don Nelson wasn't his coach and if Warriors management wasn't pushing for Anthony Randolph to get more minutes. Still, Biedrins is one of those rare player who can put up lots of counting stats (rebounds) in relatively few minutes. I wouldn't start him this week in weekly leagues, but he should be back in your lineup the following week.
Prediction: Randolph steals five minutes a game from Biedrins.
Unmitigated Wariness
Chris Kaman – Not much to update on this one. As I wrote last week, the term "strained arch" is very misleading and doesn't tell the whole story. Kaman is really dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is a very insidious injury in that it can be very unpredictable. Some people have it for years, while others seem to be able to shake it quickly. Rumor has it that Kaman will return for the final 25 games of the season, but don't expect more than 80% of a typical Kaman output, and be aware that there is a huge likelihood that he aggravates his injury.
Prediction: Kaman plays 8 games before shutting it down for the rest of the season.
Carlos Boozer – Last week I predicted Boozer wouldn't be fantasy relevant for the rest of the season. Maybe I was being a bit melodramatic, as there rumors floating around that he might return this week. Even so, I continue to have little-to-no faith in him. Why? Because he's a liar. I call players like Boozer, who don't seem to care much about getting back to the court, "shrug" players: even if Boozer does come back and plays well, I will just shrug. I still don't want him on my team. Ever.
Prediction: I'm stubbornly sticking with my prediction that Boozer will not be fantasy relevant for the rest of this season.
Active Worry
Tyson Chandler – Rumor has it that Chandler might return on Monday. His two-to-three-year-old toe injury and recent ankle injury appear to be healing. The thing is, what will he do when he does return? Don't expect a slew of double-doubles. Instead, you should expect inconsistent play for the rest of the season from Chandler.
Prediction: Chandler returns and gets his only double-double for the rest of the season against Oklahoma City, the team that nearly traded for him, on March 7th.
Greg Oden – Poor guy. The word surgery is being thrown around. As I've mentioned before, I like Oden, and so I hope I'm wrong in being fairly certain that this 2009 season isn't going to end well. I tend to be aggressive, sometimes overly so, but I'd drop Oden for Przybilla's 6 points, 12 rebounds right now.
Prediction: Oden avoids surgery and returns to the court to consistently produce…nah, Oden is done.
Mike Dunleavy – When you're making ten predictions a week like I am, you're bound to get a few of them right eventually. Dunleavy is, well, done. His fantasy value has been flattened (dunleavened?) due to injury. Drop him and move on. Even if he does return, which is highly doubtful, you have to figure that he will shoot poorly and have less time on the court to rack up counting stats.
Prediction: Marquis Daniels once again becomes a viable fantasy options in some leagues.
Tracy McGrady – Shut it down! Remember when Vince Carter was king of the NBA universe back in 2000? Soon after he reached that pinnacle, there was a backlash against Carter. The same is true for McGrady. He used to be superhero-esque, but his image has certainly taken a hit this year. It's sad. Unless you were smart enough to not draft McGrady in the first place. Then you probably don't care what happens to McGrady one way or the other.
Prediction: McGrady is out for the year.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 16
Pure Excitement
Amare Stoudemire – With Terry Porter (nearly) fired, it is possible that Stoudemire will no longer be traded. It is also possible that he'll thrive under his new coach. I'd risk it and start him this week. UPDATE: Given the fact that Amare is now reported to be out for the year, things just got a lot less exciting for Amare owners.
Prediction: Stoudemire isn't traded.*
*Will Amare be traded this year? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Rudy Gay – I was hoping that Rudy Fernandez would impress me in the dunk competition. There were low expectations for him going into the contest, but I was hoping he'd surprise, as he is rumored to have a 120 cm vertical leap, which converts to 47 inches. His dunks were okay, but his chances of getting a high score from the judges were hurt for two reasons: 1. Only Pau Gasol cheered after his dunks and 2. He vertical was not even close to being 47 inches. My point? It would have been fun to see Rudy Gay in there instead. Gay's hip flexor makes him a risky play this week. He also might be traded, and if he is he'd probably miss a game or two.
Prediction: If Gay had participated in the slam dunk contest, he wouldn't have missed the same dunk seven times in a row.
Chris Paul – He's back! I may have celebrated the return of Jose Calderon a little too early in a previous column, but you have to feel good about Paul's first game back. And plus, he looked pretty good in the All Star game. Get him in your lineup, pronto.
Prediction: Paul will be injury-free the rest of the season. Did I just jinx him?
Cautious Optimism
This is one of those rare weeks where the news was either really good or really bad, and so there are no players that require cautious optimism this week.
Unmitigated Wariness
Chris Kaman – The term "strained arch" is very misleading and doesn't tell the whole story. Kaman is really dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is a very insidious injury in that it can be very unpredictable. Some people have it for years, while others seem to be able to shake it quickly. Rumor has it that Kaman will return for the final 25 games of the season, but don't expect more than 80% of a typical Kaman output, and be aware that there is a huge likelihood that he aggravates his injury.
Prediction: Kamn plays 8 games before shutting it down for the rest of the season.
Drew Gooden – Tyrus Thomas owners and Joakim Noah owners should start feeling pretty good about Gooden's injury. Gooden owners should start to make other plans. He'll probably decide if he's going to shut it down later this week.
Prediction: Gooden tries to play a few games but ultimately decides he can't play with his injury.
Carlos Boozer – Boozer is rehabbing in Miami. I have little-to-no faith that he returns this year. I believe so strongly in this that I'd pursue Millsap if he weren't banged up himself.
Prediction: Boozer is not fantasy relevant for the rest of this season.
Active Worry
Jameer Nelson – I said last week that you should drop Nelson and move on. Watching Nelson toss a weak, one-handed pass to Dwight Howard during the NBA slam dunk contest only helps my argument.
Prediction: Nelson announces his surgery plans later this week.
Jason Terry – Terry is saying that he will start shooing after the All Star break. Thing is, bone takes five weeks to heal, and so it is highly unlikely that Terry will be back until at least four weeks have elapsed. He was hurt on February 7th, and so my guess is that he comes back in four-to-five weeks, which would be in the March 7th to March 14th range.
Prediction: Terry comes back for the March 10th game against Phoenix.
Mike Dunleavy – I've been pretty down about Dunleavy all season, and I admit that for 18 glorious games (from his owners' perspective), Dunleavy was very useful fantasy-wise. In roughly 27 minutes, Dunleavy averaged 15 points and four rebounds (although he did shoot four percentage points below his career shooting percentage). That ends now. After the All Star break, he'll try to play through pain in reduced minutes. You have to figure that Dunleavy will shoot poorly and have less time on the court to rack up counting stats. UPDATE: Looks like Dunleavy is out for the year.
Prediction: Dunleavy returns for 11 more games, shoots 39% in an average of 23 minutes, and then shuts it down for the year.
Al Jefferson – A torn ACL is one of the many things that I have in common with Jefferson, as we also both like to read, take long naps, and shop at the mall. Everything in the last sentence is made up except for the ACL tear. When I tore mine, the doctor diagnosed it by shaking his head and saying, "It's a shame to see this in someone so young" (I was sixteen at the time). I wanted to tell him that I hadn't died, I'd just gotten my knee shredded. Anyway, that is the same advice I'd give Jefferson fans. It's a shame that it happened to someone who was having such a good season. But he'll be back. It's just going to take 6-9 months of grueling rehab for him to get back to his pre-injury level of ability.
Prediction: My guess is that Jefferson gets his new knee ligament from a cadaver, as this is what most pro athletes do.
Amare Stoudemire – With Terry Porter (nearly) fired, it is possible that Stoudemire will no longer be traded. It is also possible that he'll thrive under his new coach. I'd risk it and start him this week. UPDATE: Given the fact that Amare is now reported to be out for the year, things just got a lot less exciting for Amare owners.
Prediction: Stoudemire isn't traded.*
Rudy Gay – I was hoping that Rudy Fernandez would impress me in the dunk competition. There were low expectations for him going into the contest, but I was hoping he'd surprise, as he is rumored to have a 120 cm vertical leap, which converts to 47 inches. His dunks were okay, but his chances of getting a high score from the judges were hurt for two reasons: 1. Only Pau Gasol cheered after his dunks and 2. He vertical was not even close to being 47 inches. My point? It would have been fun to see Rudy Gay in there instead. Gay's hip flexor makes him a risky play this week. He also might be traded, and if he is he'd probably miss a game or two.
Prediction: If Gay had participated in the slam dunk contest, he wouldn't have missed the same dunk seven times in a row.
Chris Paul – He's back! I may have celebrated the return of Jose Calderon a little too early in a previous column, but you have to feel good about Paul's first game back. And plus, he looked pretty good in the All Star game. Get him in your lineup, pronto.
Prediction: Paul will be injury-free the rest of the season. Did I just jinx him?
Cautious Optimism
This is one of those rare weeks where the news was either really good or really bad, and so there are no players that require cautious optimism this week.
Unmitigated Wariness
Chris Kaman – The term "strained arch" is very misleading and doesn't tell the whole story. Kaman is really dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is a very insidious injury in that it can be very unpredictable. Some people have it for years, while others seem to be able to shake it quickly. Rumor has it that Kaman will return for the final 25 games of the season, but don't expect more than 80% of a typical Kaman output, and be aware that there is a huge likelihood that he aggravates his injury.
Prediction: Kamn plays 8 games before shutting it down for the rest of the season.
Drew Gooden – Tyrus Thomas owners and Joakim Noah owners should start feeling pretty good about Gooden's injury. Gooden owners should start to make other plans. He'll probably decide if he's going to shut it down later this week.
Prediction: Gooden tries to play a few games but ultimately decides he can't play with his injury.
Carlos Boozer – Boozer is rehabbing in Miami. I have little-to-no faith that he returns this year. I believe so strongly in this that I'd pursue Millsap if he weren't banged up himself.
Prediction: Boozer is not fantasy relevant for the rest of this season.
Active Worry
Jameer Nelson – I said last week that you should drop Nelson and move on. Watching Nelson toss a weak, one-handed pass to Dwight Howard during the NBA slam dunk contest only helps my argument.
Prediction: Nelson announces his surgery plans later this week.
Jason Terry – Terry is saying that he will start shooing after the All Star break. Thing is, bone takes five weeks to heal, and so it is highly unlikely that Terry will be back until at least four weeks have elapsed. He was hurt on February 7th, and so my guess is that he comes back in four-to-five weeks, which would be in the March 7th to March 14th range.
Prediction: Terry comes back for the March 10th game against Phoenix.
Mike Dunleavy – I've been pretty down about Dunleavy all season, and I admit that for 18 glorious games (from his owners' perspective), Dunleavy was very useful fantasy-wise. In roughly 27 minutes, Dunleavy averaged 15 points and four rebounds (although he did shoot four percentage points below his career shooting percentage). That ends now. After the All Star break, he'll try to play through pain in reduced minutes. You have to figure that Dunleavy will shoot poorly and have less time on the court to rack up counting stats. UPDATE: Looks like Dunleavy is out for the year.
Prediction: Dunleavy returns for 11 more games, shoots 39% in an average of 23 minutes, and then shuts it down for the year.
Al Jefferson – A torn ACL is one of the many things that I have in common with Jefferson, as we also both like to read, take long naps, and shop at the mall. Everything in the last sentence is made up except for the ACL tear. When I tore mine, the doctor diagnosed it by shaking his head and saying, "It's a shame to see this in someone so young" (I was sixteen at the time). I wanted to tell him that I hadn't died, I'd just gotten my knee shredded. Anyway, that is the same advice I'd give Jefferson fans. It's a shame that it happened to someone who was having such a good season. But he'll be back. It's just going to take 6-9 months of grueling rehab for him to get back to his pre-injury level of ability.
Prediction: My guess is that Jefferson gets his new knee ligament from a cadaver, as this is what most pro athletes do.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 15
Pure Excitement
Chris Paul – CP3 could return for Monday's game, but my guess is that the Hornets play it safe with Paul and hold him out until after the All Star break. If you are a Paul owner, try to think big picture. Sure, your amazing point guard is missing a few games. But hey, you still are Chris Paul owners, and when he returns in a few games your team will be just fine.
Prediction: Paul doesn't play until after the All Star break. I'm saying this based on no evidence, of course. This is just a prediction. So go with your heart. But my heart says CP3 doesn't play this next week.
Chris Bosh – The Chris' (Bosh & Paul) avoided major injury, while the Andrew's (Bogut & Bynum) didn't. Bosh owners would probably be wise to bench him until after the All Star break.
Prediction: Bosh doesn't play until after the All Star break.
Deron Williams – Nothing to worry about here. After bruising his knee, he returned to post back-to-back 34-point games. Carry on.
Prediction: Remember when Deron's ankle was buggin' him early in the season and he was a weekly fixture in this column? That was real worry. This injury is relatively minor.
Deron, apparently, has been receiving a lot of treatment for his injuries.
Cautious Optimism
Delonte West – When healthy, West is a sneaky-good fantasy player because he does everything medium-well. He won't Jamal Crawford your shooting percentage, for example. Anyway, West's cast is off and while there is no timetable for his return, you'd have to think it will happen at some point in February.
Prediction: West returns on February 22nd for a home game against Detroit.*
*Will Delonte West return before February 22nd? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Unmitigated Wariness
Danny Granger – I really am worried about Granger, but I really don't think that this will turn into a Ron Artest type situation (you know, where Artest plays whenever he feels like it). Some might see the Pacers falling farther out of contention and see that Dunleavy has just re-injured his knee and think that Granger will shut it down. But Granger just doesn't seem the type that would let himself be shut down. He plays through chipped teeth, cut fingers, sore knees. And I think he likes playing in pain. The guy is a fighter. I wouldn't trade Granger. Keep him. Ride him. He will carry you. This is Granger we're talking about. The Batman. In Granger I trust. So that's were I stand. I'm betting everything on Granger. Still not convinced? Did you ever see what his chipped teeth looked like? Check it out here. The dude is a fighter.
Prediction: I'm starting to think this whole Granger-shutdown thing is a complete over-reaction. Right? Please?
Granger admits that his knee is really bothering him.
Drew Gooden – Not looking good. If he has a sports hernia, it could end his season, as a similar ailment recently ended former NBA player Josh Childress' season. Tyrus Thomas owners have to be at least a little happy about this development, as Thomas has played well with Gooden out of the lineup.
Prediction: More concrete information about Gooden will come after the All Star break.
Active Worry
Jameer Nelson – Drop him and move on. Not everyone will agree with this advice, but I get pretty aggressive when it comes to major injuries to players in the second half of the season. Why wait until you are certain that Nelson is out for the year if waiting means you'll miss out on a waiver wire pickup? Anyway, the most likely scenario at this point is that Nelson is out for the year. The second-most likely scenario is that he pulls an Elton Brand and teases you for a few weeks before going under the knife. It's over. Tyronn Lue wasn't brought in because Nelson's outlook is a positive one. Sessions or Conley anyone?
Prediction: I feel pretty confident in saying that Nelson is out for the year.
Andrew Bynum – Honestly, I'm confused. Is he going to be back in 8-12 weeks or is he going to be back in 5 weeks? My guess is that he's not going to help anyone fantasy-wise this season. Still, I'm holding out hope. I'm not sure why I'm holding out hope for Bynum but have zero hope for Nelson, but that's the way it is. Hopefully there will be a less confusing update on this situation in the near future.
Prediction: I still don't have a good feeling about this one. I'm thinking this is going to be one of those "might be back for the playoffs" type injuries.
Everything you could ever want to know about MCL injuries. Maybe this will help to clear up some of the confusion.
Elton Brand – Not much to say about Brand. He's done. The only thing I'll add is that Brand recently donated shoes to a charter school run by a friend of mine. So that was nice. I'll stop before this starts to sound like a eulogy.
Prediction: Brand will probably be super cheap to draft next year.
More Elton Brand eulogy.
Is Brand better than Kobe?
Andrew Bogut – It's been a rough week injury-wise, hasn't it? On my team, my top three draft picks missed games due to injury this week. Bogut is out with a back fracture. I put him in the Nelson category: slight hope, but even if he does play, he's probably not going to help your team soon enough, or even enough, to be worth waiting on him. Cut him loose and move on.
Prediction: Bogut will probably be pretty cheap to draft next year.
Bogut's blog: he'll be playing a lot of poker over the next two months and no basketball.
Chris Paul – CP3 could return for Monday's game, but my guess is that the Hornets play it safe with Paul and hold him out until after the All Star break. If you are a Paul owner, try to think big picture. Sure, your amazing point guard is missing a few games. But hey, you still are Chris Paul owners, and when he returns in a few games your team will be just fine.
Prediction: Paul doesn't play until after the All Star break. I'm saying this based on no evidence, of course. This is just a prediction. So go with your heart. But my heart says CP3 doesn't play this next week.
Chris Bosh – The Chris' (Bosh & Paul) avoided major injury, while the Andrew's (Bogut & Bynum) didn't. Bosh owners would probably be wise to bench him until after the All Star break.
Prediction: Bosh doesn't play until after the All Star break.
Deron Williams – Nothing to worry about here. After bruising his knee, he returned to post back-to-back 34-point games. Carry on.
Prediction: Remember when Deron's ankle was buggin' him early in the season and he was a weekly fixture in this column? That was real worry. This injury is relatively minor.
Cautious Optimism
Delonte West – When healthy, West is a sneaky-good fantasy player because he does everything medium-well. He won't Jamal Crawford your shooting percentage, for example. Anyway, West's cast is off and while there is no timetable for his return, you'd have to think it will happen at some point in February.
Prediction: West returns on February 22nd for a home game against Detroit.*
Unmitigated Wariness
Danny Granger – I really am worried about Granger, but I really don't think that this will turn into a Ron Artest type situation (you know, where Artest plays whenever he feels like it). Some might see the Pacers falling farther out of contention and see that Dunleavy has just re-injured his knee and think that Granger will shut it down. But Granger just doesn't seem the type that would let himself be shut down. He plays through chipped teeth, cut fingers, sore knees. And I think he likes playing in pain. The guy is a fighter. I wouldn't trade Granger. Keep him. Ride him. He will carry you. This is Granger we're talking about. The Batman. In Granger I trust. So that's were I stand. I'm betting everything on Granger. Still not convinced? Did you ever see what his chipped teeth looked like? Check it out here. The dude is a fighter.
Prediction: I'm starting to think this whole Granger-shutdown thing is a complete over-reaction. Right? Please?
Drew Gooden – Not looking good. If he has a sports hernia, it could end his season, as a similar ailment recently ended former NBA player Josh Childress' season. Tyrus Thomas owners have to be at least a little happy about this development, as Thomas has played well with Gooden out of the lineup.
Prediction: More concrete information about Gooden will come after the All Star break.
Active Worry
Jameer Nelson – Drop him and move on. Not everyone will agree with this advice, but I get pretty aggressive when it comes to major injuries to players in the second half of the season. Why wait until you are certain that Nelson is out for the year if waiting means you'll miss out on a waiver wire pickup? Anyway, the most likely scenario at this point is that Nelson is out for the year. The second-most likely scenario is that he pulls an Elton Brand and teases you for a few weeks before going under the knife. It's over. Tyronn Lue wasn't brought in because Nelson's outlook is a positive one. Sessions or Conley anyone?
Prediction: I feel pretty confident in saying that Nelson is out for the year.
Andrew Bynum – Honestly, I'm confused. Is he going to be back in 8-12 weeks or is he going to be back in 5 weeks? My guess is that he's not going to help anyone fantasy-wise this season. Still, I'm holding out hope. I'm not sure why I'm holding out hope for Bynum but have zero hope for Nelson, but that's the way it is. Hopefully there will be a less confusing update on this situation in the near future.
Prediction: I still don't have a good feeling about this one. I'm thinking this is going to be one of those "might be back for the playoffs" type injuries.
Elton Brand – Not much to say about Brand. He's done. The only thing I'll add is that Brand recently donated shoes to a charter school run by a friend of mine. So that was nice. I'll stop before this starts to sound like a eulogy.
Prediction: Brand will probably be super cheap to draft next year.
Andrew Bogut – It's been a rough week injury-wise, hasn't it? On my team, my top three draft picks missed games due to injury this week. Bogut is out with a back fracture. I put him in the Nelson category: slight hope, but even if he does play, he's probably not going to help your team soon enough, or even enough, to be worth waiting on him. Cut him loose and move on.
Prediction: Bogut will probably be pretty cheap to draft next year.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 14
Pure Excitement
David West – West returned after missing five games with back spasms to score 12 points and grab 15 rebounds.
Prediction: West, who is currently averaging 19.7 points per game, plays even better for the rest of the year and ends up averaging over 20 points a game for the season.
Cautious Optimism
Zach Randolph – I dislike Randolph and his out-of-shape ways and so I avoid in him at all costs. That said, he’s been pretty freaking good this year. There is some discrepancy about when he’ll come back from his injury, but it sounds like it is going to be sooner rather than later. My guess is his knee is fine, but that he’s way out of game shape. Which brings me back to my first point: I dislike Randolph and his out-of-shape ways.
Prediction: Zach returns mid-February and immediately returns to throwing up 22 points and 11 rebounds a game.
Shawn Marion – He’s missed five games and counting. I’m still tempted to trade for him, mostly because this recent iteration of Marion—which I’m going to call “Bad Marion”—is still valuable in fantasy.
Prediction: I’m sticking with my prediction from last week: Marion is traded to the Toronto Raptors before February 10th.
Some local dirt on Marion’s groin.
Marcus Camby – Sometimes I get the impression that Camby can block shots with one arm tied behind his back. He back and he’s starting again, so hopefully he’ll remain healthy for the rest of the year. Here is my take on Camby: if your team is stinking it up, see if you can get Camby at a below-market-value rate and pray he stays healthy. Other than that, I’d try to avoid him. In related news, DeAndre Jordan’s value has completely disappeared.
Prediction: Camby misses a few games here and there with small injuries but plays like a top ten pick when he does play.
Marcus Camby is a hovercraft.
Mike Conley and Ramon Sessions – I’m not particularly excited about either one of these guys. In twelve-team leagues, they’re certainly helpful, but in smaller leagues I think they both are fools-gold-ish. Why? Because both of these players don’t do a lot of things: they don’t shoot threes, they don’t shoot over 44%, they don’t block shots, they aren’t great free throw shooters, and they aren’t that great at getting steals. Still, when they get minutes, they can produce. I like Sessions more because I’ve seen him raise his game and be great, like he did at the end of last year. I’ve never really seen Conley play well in the pros. Maybe he will now that he’s starting.
Prediction: Sessions will be more valuable than Conley from now until the end of the season.*
Unmitigated Wariness
Danny Granger – Is there a tougher man in the NBA? I know, I know. I also get annoyed when certain players are given the “tough” label as it is often a way for TV announcers to fill a particular story line. For example, I’m currently watching the Super Bowl and the announcers keep talking about how Hines Ward is the toughest player in the NFL. I don’t know. It just annoys me. And yet, here I am calling Granger tough. You see, I’m a Granger owner, and the guy plays through everything: broken teeth, split finger, sore knee. So I respect him for that. But sheesh, I’m getting a little sick of this 6-for-17 business. This knee thing has me very, very worried.
Prediction: My worry is a complete over-reaction. He’ll be fine, starting as early as this week.
Gerald Wallace – I’ve never collapsed a lung, but I have broken a few ribs. I know looking online is never a good idea when it comes to answering medical questions, but according to my online research, it will take Wallace two weeks to heal from his collapsed lung. The ribs are trickier. Mine made me feel like an old man for about two weeks (getting into and out of bed was a huge struggle) but after that they didn’t feel all that bad most of the time. Thing is, the injury lingers. You think they’re gone, and then you reach into your closet to get a shirt off a hanger and suddenly you feel a sharp pain in your ribs. And no matter how strong you are, it takes humans five weeks for bone to heal. So things are not looking good for Wallace. That said, professional sports players are complete freaks, and sometimes they come back from injuries much faster than mere mortals can. For example, NFL running back Marion Barber broke some ribs and came back seven days later. He led his team out of the tunnel before the game, and the camera caught him screaming and banging his ribs with his fist. He played in that game without a flak jacket. Crazy.
Prediction: Wallace misses all of February. He returns in March, but his stats are slightly lower because he isn’t quite able to play with the same aggression due to his intermittently tender ribs.
Active Worry
Andrei Kirilenko – Matt Stroup wrote an awesome piece for his Roundball Stew column in which he discussed how much it sucks when your league-mates don’t respond to your trade offers. This is happening to me in one of my leagues. Initially I was upset that the owner wouldn’t respond, but in hindsight I’m less upset, as the player I was trying to trade for was Kirilenko.
Prediction: The debate isn’t how long Kirilenko will be out, but whether or not he can be valuable if he does returns. I say no.
Andrew Bynum – His coach is saying that he’s going to be out “quite a while.” Yikes. The results from his MRI should be back late Monday night. Let’s wait for that MRI before we really freak out. In the meantime, it’s okay to be actively worried.
Prediction: I don’t have a good feeling about this one. I’m thinking this is going to be one of those “might be back for the playoffs” type injuries.
David West – West returned after missing five games with back spasms to score 12 points and grab 15 rebounds.
Prediction: West, who is currently averaging 19.7 points per game, plays even better for the rest of the year and ends up averaging over 20 points a game for the season.
Cautious Optimism
Zach Randolph – I dislike Randolph and his out-of-shape ways and so I avoid in him at all costs. That said, he’s been pretty freaking good this year. There is some discrepancy about when he’ll come back from his injury, but it sounds like it is going to be sooner rather than later. My guess is his knee is fine, but that he’s way out of game shape. Which brings me back to my first point: I dislike Randolph and his out-of-shape ways.
Prediction: Zach returns mid-February and immediately returns to throwing up 22 points and 11 rebounds a game.
Shawn Marion – He’s missed five games and counting. I’m still tempted to trade for him, mostly because this recent iteration of Marion—which I’m going to call “Bad Marion”—is still valuable in fantasy.
Prediction: I’m sticking with my prediction from last week: Marion is traded to the Toronto Raptors before February 10th.
Marcus Camby – Sometimes I get the impression that Camby can block shots with one arm tied behind his back. He back and he’s starting again, so hopefully he’ll remain healthy for the rest of the year. Here is my take on Camby: if your team is stinking it up, see if you can get Camby at a below-market-value rate and pray he stays healthy. Other than that, I’d try to avoid him. In related news, DeAndre Jordan’s value has completely disappeared.
Prediction: Camby misses a few games here and there with small injuries but plays like a top ten pick when he does play.
Mike Conley and Ramon Sessions – I’m not particularly excited about either one of these guys. In twelve-team leagues, they’re certainly helpful, but in smaller leagues I think they both are fools-gold-ish. Why? Because both of these players don’t do a lot of things: they don’t shoot threes, they don’t shoot over 44%, they don’t block shots, they aren’t great free throw shooters, and they aren’t that great at getting steals. Still, when they get minutes, they can produce. I like Sessions more because I’ve seen him raise his game and be great, like he did at the end of last year. I’ve never really seen Conley play well in the pros. Maybe he will now that he’s starting.
Prediction: Sessions will be more valuable than Conley from now until the end of the season.*
| *Will Sessions be more valuable than Conley? Give it a thumbs up or down. |
Unmitigated Wariness
Danny Granger – Is there a tougher man in the NBA? I know, I know. I also get annoyed when certain players are given the “tough” label as it is often a way for TV announcers to fill a particular story line. For example, I’m currently watching the Super Bowl and the announcers keep talking about how Hines Ward is the toughest player in the NFL. I don’t know. It just annoys me. And yet, here I am calling Granger tough. You see, I’m a Granger owner, and the guy plays through everything: broken teeth, split finger, sore knee. So I respect him for that. But sheesh, I’m getting a little sick of this 6-for-17 business. This knee thing has me very, very worried.
Prediction: My worry is a complete over-reaction. He’ll be fine, starting as early as this week.
Gerald Wallace – I’ve never collapsed a lung, but I have broken a few ribs. I know looking online is never a good idea when it comes to answering medical questions, but according to my online research, it will take Wallace two weeks to heal from his collapsed lung. The ribs are trickier. Mine made me feel like an old man for about two weeks (getting into and out of bed was a huge struggle) but after that they didn’t feel all that bad most of the time. Thing is, the injury lingers. You think they’re gone, and then you reach into your closet to get a shirt off a hanger and suddenly you feel a sharp pain in your ribs. And no matter how strong you are, it takes humans five weeks for bone to heal. So things are not looking good for Wallace. That said, professional sports players are complete freaks, and sometimes they come back from injuries much faster than mere mortals can. For example, NFL running back Marion Barber broke some ribs and came back seven days later. He led his team out of the tunnel before the game, and the camera caught him screaming and banging his ribs with his fist. He played in that game without a flak jacket. Crazy.
Prediction: Wallace misses all of February. He returns in March, but his stats are slightly lower because he isn’t quite able to play with the same aggression due to his intermittently tender ribs.
Active Worry
Andrei Kirilenko – Matt Stroup wrote an awesome piece for his Roundball Stew column in which he discussed how much it sucks when your league-mates don’t respond to your trade offers. This is happening to me in one of my leagues. Initially I was upset that the owner wouldn’t respond, but in hindsight I’m less upset, as the player I was trying to trade for was Kirilenko.
Prediction: The debate isn’t how long Kirilenko will be out, but whether or not he can be valuable if he does returns. I say no.
Andrew Bynum – His coach is saying that he’s going to be out “quite a while.” Yikes. The results from his MRI should be back late Monday night. Let’s wait for that MRI before we really freak out. In the meantime, it’s okay to be actively worried.
Prediction: I don’t have a good feeling about this one. I’m thinking this is going to be one of those “might be back for the playoffs” type injuries.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 13
Note: Given my inability to see into the future, you should take the following ten predictions as simply a fast way to communicate my take on a given player's value.
Pure Excitement
Jose Calderon – Being without Calderon for 10 of his last 11 games was tough, but after scoring 23 points and getting ten assists in his return, all is forgiven. One interesting side effect of Calderon's injury is that the Raptors discovered that Anthony Parker knows how to play the point. My only question is this: will Anthony Parker continue to dish out a handful of assists even with Calderon back? The early returns (two games) say yes, as Parker had seven assists in each of the two games since Calderon's return.
Prediction: As I said last week, Calderon will immediately go back to dishing out the fourth-most assists in the NBA (on a per-game basis).
Calderon is sixth best with regards to the Eddy Curry Line.
Cautious Optimism
Monta Ellis – In his first game back, Ellis was healthy enough to jack up 19 shots. It will be interesting to see what happens when he has to play alongside fellow shot-chucker Jamal Crawford. My guess is that Ellis gets his shots but that Crawford struggles to get his.
Prediction: Ellis, who averaged 20 points, four assists, and five rebounds last year, hits for 18 points, three assists, and four rebounds this year. He shot 53% from the field last year, but he will shoot slightly under 50% this year.
Free Darko on Monta Ellis.
Ellis shouting "let me play!"
Buser on Monta Ellis.
Will Mona Ellis' return make a difference?
Shawn Marion – There are certain stat anomalies that are going on this season that nobody seems to be able to explain. For example, why can't Josh Smith seem to block shots anymore? Here is one that is more relevant to this column: why does Marion suddenly get "shy guy" every time he's behind the three-point line? Thing is, even a sub-par Marion is better than most other players in the league. I don't have him in any of my leagues, but I've been trying to get him. I know he's certainly a volatile investment, but it really feels like the stats we've been getting from Marion over the last few weeks are his floor, and that in all likelihood any trade to a new team will increase his value.
Prediction: Marion is traded to the Toronto Raptors before February 10th.*
Frank at the Toronto Sun thinks the Raptors should not trade for Marion.
Some local dirt on Marion's groin.
Marcus Camby – Camby ended up missing his Sunday night game (9:00 pm EST), but he should be back for the Clippers' game on Monday. UPDATE: Nope, he didn't play on Monday. Sigh.
Prediction: Camby misses a few games here and there with small injuries but plays like a top ten pick when he does play.
Marcus Camby is a hovercraft.
Danilo Gallinari – My brother-in-law is Italian and named Danilo. I never have any idea what he's talking about, but I have fun hanging out with him. To give you a glimpse of what it would be like hanging out with Danilo, here is a video of Danilo having bathroom issues while traveling in China. So I guess my point is this: I'm inclined to like any NBA player named Danilo. What I like about Gallinari in particular is that in his limited minutes, he's been able to do a little of everything. Doubling the stats he's gotten in the sixteen minutes he's played in four games so far in January would give him this line: 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 3 three-pointers made, 1.6 steals, 1.6 blocks, 1.6 turnovers, 100% free throw shooting, and 56% from the field. Now, you should know that this little exercise might be incredibly misleading. Then again, maybe it is more eye-opening then misleading, as it shows that Gallinari has the potential to be a serious fantasy force if given serious minutes. But will Gallinari ever get serious minutes? I think so. The Knicks' primary goal is to keep him healthy. But once they've been satisfied that his back injury won't return, they are going to want to see what sort of player they have in Gallinari. My guess is that he's getting serious minutes (25 plus) by February.
Prediction: Gallinari becomes more valuable than Wilson Chandler by mid-February.
A youtube compilation of Danilo highlights.
DeAndre Jordan – Now that Camby is on the verge of returning, I think it is safe to assume that Jordan won't be getting big minutes in the near term. Still, Jordan's recent good play has taught us something, namely that Jordan has a lot of value if Camby were ever to go down with injury again. Along these same lines, Ronny Turiaf would be valuable if Andris Biedrins were to be injured. I'm also a believer that Kosta Koufos would be valuable if both Millsap and Boozer get injured. UPDATE: This needs to be said: This guy is one of the worst free throw shooters I have ever seen. Seriously. He's in danger of dipping below 30%...
Prediction: Jordan has a few big games this season but doesn't get enough playing time to be a consistent fantasy force.
Unmitigated Wariness
Baron Davis – Davis is going to try to come back on Wednesday of this week. He's missed so much time that he'll probably only play twenty minutes or so in his first few games back.
Yikes: Davis missed this much time with a "bruised tailbone." Can you imagine how hard he must have hit his tailbone? Seriously. He must have really done a number on his coxycx.
Free Darko quoting Rotoworld's Steve Alexander quoting Steve Malkmus: "Baron is not my bag."
BoomDizzle (AKA Baron Davis) challenges you.
Baron Davis and Steve Nash are related.
Andrew Bogut – A few weeks ago, I really thought Bogut was a great guy to get on the cheap. Now I'm not so sure. Bogut himself has confessed that he can't seem to shake his back injury. His team has a four-game week this week and Bogut might return on Monday, but his lingering back injury makes him a risky play in weekly leagues.
Prediction: Bogut's back injury lingers all season.
Chris Kaman – A recent report came out that Kaman won't be back until after the All-Star break. His injury, planter fasciitis, is a serious injury that can be really hard to shake, especially for dudes who need to run and jump a lot. If I were a Kaman owner and in danger of not making the playoffs, I would sell him to the first place team in my league at a discount. That way, the first place team can stash him away, and you get someone to help you win now.
Prediction: Kaman's foot injury lingers all season.
Some info on planter fasciitis.
Active Worry
Tyson Chandler – Chandler is out until after the All-Star break with a sprained ankle. I, however, want nothing to do with Chandler, healthy or not. Why? Well, primarily because he's having a terrible year, and secondarily because he's a bit of a punk.
Prediction: The 2007-2008 season will be the only time in Chandler's career that he averages a double-double.
Chandler hits Przybilla on his broken hand.
Pure Excitement
Jose Calderon – Being without Calderon for 10 of his last 11 games was tough, but after scoring 23 points and getting ten assists in his return, all is forgiven. One interesting side effect of Calderon's injury is that the Raptors discovered that Anthony Parker knows how to play the point. My only question is this: will Anthony Parker continue to dish out a handful of assists even with Calderon back? The early returns (two games) say yes, as Parker had seven assists in each of the two games since Calderon's return.
Prediction: As I said last week, Calderon will immediately go back to dishing out the fourth-most assists in the NBA (on a per-game basis).
Cautious Optimism
Monta Ellis – In his first game back, Ellis was healthy enough to jack up 19 shots. It will be interesting to see what happens when he has to play alongside fellow shot-chucker Jamal Crawford. My guess is that Ellis gets his shots but that Crawford struggles to get his.
Prediction: Ellis, who averaged 20 points, four assists, and five rebounds last year, hits for 18 points, three assists, and four rebounds this year. He shot 53% from the field last year, but he will shoot slightly under 50% this year.
Shawn Marion – There are certain stat anomalies that are going on this season that nobody seems to be able to explain. For example, why can't Josh Smith seem to block shots anymore? Here is one that is more relevant to this column: why does Marion suddenly get "shy guy" every time he's behind the three-point line? Thing is, even a sub-par Marion is better than most other players in the league. I don't have him in any of my leagues, but I've been trying to get him. I know he's certainly a volatile investment, but it really feels like the stats we've been getting from Marion over the last few weeks are his floor, and that in all likelihood any trade to a new team will increase his value.
Prediction: Marion is traded to the Toronto Raptors before February 10th.*
| *Will Marion be traded this year? Give it a thumbs up or down. |
Marcus Camby – Camby ended up missing his Sunday night game (9:00 pm EST), but he should be back for the Clippers' game on Monday. UPDATE: Nope, he didn't play on Monday. Sigh.
Prediction: Camby misses a few games here and there with small injuries but plays like a top ten pick when he does play.
Danilo Gallinari – My brother-in-law is Italian and named Danilo. I never have any idea what he's talking about, but I have fun hanging out with him. To give you a glimpse of what it would be like hanging out with Danilo, here is a video of Danilo having bathroom issues while traveling in China. So I guess my point is this: I'm inclined to like any NBA player named Danilo. What I like about Gallinari in particular is that in his limited minutes, he's been able to do a little of everything. Doubling the stats he's gotten in the sixteen minutes he's played in four games so far in January would give him this line: 18 points, 5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 3 three-pointers made, 1.6 steals, 1.6 blocks, 1.6 turnovers, 100% free throw shooting, and 56% from the field. Now, you should know that this little exercise might be incredibly misleading. Then again, maybe it is more eye-opening then misleading, as it shows that Gallinari has the potential to be a serious fantasy force if given serious minutes. But will Gallinari ever get serious minutes? I think so. The Knicks' primary goal is to keep him healthy. But once they've been satisfied that his back injury won't return, they are going to want to see what sort of player they have in Gallinari. My guess is that he's getting serious minutes (25 plus) by February.
Prediction: Gallinari becomes more valuable than Wilson Chandler by mid-February.
DeAndre Jordan – Now that Camby is on the verge of returning, I think it is safe to assume that Jordan won't be getting big minutes in the near term. Still, Jordan's recent good play has taught us something, namely that Jordan has a lot of value if Camby were ever to go down with injury again. Along these same lines, Ronny Turiaf would be valuable if Andris Biedrins were to be injured. I'm also a believer that Kosta Koufos would be valuable if both Millsap and Boozer get injured. UPDATE: This needs to be said: This guy is one of the worst free throw shooters I have ever seen. Seriously. He's in danger of dipping below 30%...
Prediction: Jordan has a few big games this season but doesn't get enough playing time to be a consistent fantasy force.
Unmitigated Wariness
Baron Davis – Davis is going to try to come back on Wednesday of this week. He's missed so much time that he'll probably only play twenty minutes or so in his first few games back.
Yikes: Davis missed this much time with a "bruised tailbone." Can you imagine how hard he must have hit his tailbone? Seriously. He must have really done a number on his coxycx.
Andrew Bogut – A few weeks ago, I really thought Bogut was a great guy to get on the cheap. Now I'm not so sure. Bogut himself has confessed that he can't seem to shake his back injury. His team has a four-game week this week and Bogut might return on Monday, but his lingering back injury makes him a risky play in weekly leagues.
Prediction: Bogut's back injury lingers all season.
Chris Kaman – A recent report came out that Kaman won't be back until after the All-Star break. His injury, planter fasciitis, is a serious injury that can be really hard to shake, especially for dudes who need to run and jump a lot. If I were a Kaman owner and in danger of not making the playoffs, I would sell him to the first place team in my league at a discount. That way, the first place team can stash him away, and you get someone to help you win now.
Prediction: Kaman's foot injury lingers all season.
Active Worry
Tyson Chandler – Chandler is out until after the All-Star break with a sprained ankle. I, however, want nothing to do with Chandler, healthy or not. Why? Well, primarily because he's having a terrible year, and secondarily because he's a bit of a punk.
Prediction: The 2007-2008 season will be the only time in Chandler's career that he averages a double-double.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
NBA Search Market: Week 12
Pure Excitement
Jose Calderon – As a Calderon owner, I'm almost happy that he's probably going to miss Monday and Wednesday's games. I want him to get his hamstring fully healed before returning to play. Remember that big game he had on December 29th (see timeline)? There will be a lot more of those in the near future.
Prediction: After missing two more games, Calderon returns and immediately goes back to dishing out the fourth-most assists in the NBA (on a per-game basis).
Calderon is sixth best with regards to the Eddy Curry Line.
Cautious Optimism
Monta Ellis – Remember that scene in Braveheart when all those horses are charging across a field at Mel Gibson? You know, Mel is instructing his men, who are holding pointed sticks, to wait until the last minute to raise said pointed sticks and stab said charging horses? (If you want to refresh your memory, click here and go to the 5:05 mark.) Sorry for the old, outdated, reference, but that is how I feel about Monta Ellis right now: "Steady….hold….hold…"
Prediction: I'm sticking with my prediction from last week that Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year. The reason I'm saying he'll only get to 90% is not because of his ankle, which seems to be fine, but because I think it will be hard for him to get his fitness level to where it needs to be in order to consistently perform at a high level. Tangentially, it is worth pointing out that Marco Belinelli might be rendered useless after Ellis returns.
"I've said that I don't think Ellis will ever play for the Warriors again"
Nick Young – Young is hot. Conventional wisdom says to pick him up if at all possible. Problem is, Young, like Von Wafer, doesn't do much more than score, and so his margin for error is extremely small. If you have too many guys like Nick Young on your team, you're setting yourself up for fantasy heartbreak. That said, as long as he's getting playing time, he'll get you lots of points.
Prediction: Young will be irrelevant fantasy-wise the second DeShawn Stevenson returns from injury.*
Nick Young gets a mention from Buser.
*Will Young be fantasy relevant in March? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Stephen Jackson – After missing four games with an injury, Jackson returned to score 24 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and four steals. If you play in a weekly league that only starts eight players, Jackson will kill your field goal percentage and your turnover totals and he is borderline unstartable. However, if you play in daily leagues or weekly leagues with nine or more starters, his ability in the other seven categories should more than make up for his deficiencies in TOs and FG%.
Prediction: Jackson will finish the year shooting under 40% from the field.
Al Horford – Paul Millsap, Lamar Odom, and Horford are thinking of starting a rock band called "The Bone Bruises." Horford will play a solid-but-not-phenomenal bass, Millsap will get the flashy role of lead singer / guitar, and Odom, the drummer, will not be nearly as essential to the band but will get lots of chicks.
Prediction: Whenever Horford's bruise heals, he'll go right back to pumping out his typical statline.
Paul Millsap – It is possible that Millsap won't help you as much as usual this week, but Millsap owners have to happy that his injury wasn't more serious.
Prediction: Millsap's teammate, Kosta Koufos, will be a top 80 fantasy player at some point in his career.
Unmitigated Wariness
Baron Davis – You know, if your team is in dead last place, Davis might actually be a decent guy to target in a trade. My own personal feeling is that he will continue to disappoint, but if your team really needs a prayer, Davis has the skill to help turn your team around. I just don't think it will happen this year.
Prediction: Davis eventually returns from his bruised tailbone but he continues to shoot under 40% for the rest of the season. Next year, Davis is drafted in the fifth round and goes on to play all 82 games and have an amazing season.
Free Darko quoting Rotoworld's Steve Alexander quoting Steve Malkmus: "Baron is not my bag."
BoomDizzle (AKA Baron Davis) challenges you.
Baron Davis and Steve Nash are related.
Active Worry
Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is back from his swollen knee problems, sort of.
Prediction: O'Neal has one good game in late January, and on the strength of that game he is traded to the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion. Andrea Bargnani starts for the Raptors for the rest of the season.
How did it go so wrong so quickly?
O'Neal to play with second team? "While it's not as if the Raptors can disregard the veteran centre's averages of 14 points and seven rebounds a game, the continued improvement of Andrea Bargnani in the starter's role alongside Bosh seems to suggest allowing O'Neal to be the focus of the second unit would be most profitable for all concerned."
O'Neal says Toronto is stuck in losing loop: "Jermaine O'Neal feels like the Raptors are stuck in a never-ending loop, not unlike what unfolded in the movie Groundhog Day."
Gilbert Arenas – On January 4th, Arenas played 2-on-2 basketball and was able to cut and shoot. Then, on January 12th, Arenas told the Washington Times that he wasn't even close to coming back. One of two things is happening here:
1. Arenas is playing some huge practical joke and will be back way sooner then he is letting on.
2. Arenas is being completely serious and if he ever does make it back this season, it won't happen before April.
Prediction: At this point, I'm betting that Arenas doesn't play before April, if at all.
Elton Brand – I would not give up top 100 talent in a trade for Elton Brand. Even if Brand were to return and average 20 points and 10 rebounds in his first week back, I would not give up top 100 talent. Why? Because Brand's shoulder could crap out on him at any time. Brand is an injury timebomb with a fuse of unknown length.
Prediction: Brand puts up Nenad Krstic-type stats in limited minutes when he returns to the court. He re-injures his shoulder before the March rolls around.
Jose Calderon – As a Calderon owner, I'm almost happy that he's probably going to miss Monday and Wednesday's games. I want him to get his hamstring fully healed before returning to play. Remember that big game he had on December 29th (see timeline)? There will be a lot more of those in the near future.
Prediction: After missing two more games, Calderon returns and immediately goes back to dishing out the fourth-most assists in the NBA (on a per-game basis).
Cautious Optimism
Monta Ellis – Remember that scene in Braveheart when all those horses are charging across a field at Mel Gibson? You know, Mel is instructing his men, who are holding pointed sticks, to wait until the last minute to raise said pointed sticks and stab said charging horses? (If you want to refresh your memory, click here and go to the 5:05 mark.) Sorry for the old, outdated, reference, but that is how I feel about Monta Ellis right now: "Steady….hold….hold…"
Prediction: I'm sticking with my prediction from last week that Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year. The reason I'm saying he'll only get to 90% is not because of his ankle, which seems to be fine, but because I think it will be hard for him to get his fitness level to where it needs to be in order to consistently perform at a high level. Tangentially, it is worth pointing out that Marco Belinelli might be rendered useless after Ellis returns.
Nick Young – Young is hot. Conventional wisdom says to pick him up if at all possible. Problem is, Young, like Von Wafer, doesn't do much more than score, and so his margin for error is extremely small. If you have too many guys like Nick Young on your team, you're setting yourself up for fantasy heartbreak. That said, as long as he's getting playing time, he'll get you lots of points.
Prediction: Young will be irrelevant fantasy-wise the second DeShawn Stevenson returns from injury.*
Stephen Jackson – After missing four games with an injury, Jackson returned to score 24 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and four steals. If you play in a weekly league that only starts eight players, Jackson will kill your field goal percentage and your turnover totals and he is borderline unstartable. However, if you play in daily leagues or weekly leagues with nine or more starters, his ability in the other seven categories should more than make up for his deficiencies in TOs and FG%.
Prediction: Jackson will finish the year shooting under 40% from the field.
Al Horford – Paul Millsap, Lamar Odom, and Horford are thinking of starting a rock band called "The Bone Bruises." Horford will play a solid-but-not-phenomenal bass, Millsap will get the flashy role of lead singer / guitar, and Odom, the drummer, will not be nearly as essential to the band but will get lots of chicks.
Prediction: Whenever Horford's bruise heals, he'll go right back to pumping out his typical statline.
Paul Millsap – It is possible that Millsap won't help you as much as usual this week, but Millsap owners have to happy that his injury wasn't more serious.
Prediction: Millsap's teammate, Kosta Koufos, will be a top 80 fantasy player at some point in his career.
Unmitigated Wariness
Baron Davis – You know, if your team is in dead last place, Davis might actually be a decent guy to target in a trade. My own personal feeling is that he will continue to disappoint, but if your team really needs a prayer, Davis has the skill to help turn your team around. I just don't think it will happen this year.
Prediction: Davis eventually returns from his bruised tailbone but he continues to shoot under 40% for the rest of the season. Next year, Davis is drafted in the fifth round and goes on to play all 82 games and have an amazing season.
Active Worry
Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is back from his swollen knee problems, sort of.
Prediction: O'Neal has one good game in late January, and on the strength of that game he is traded to the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion. Andrea Bargnani starts for the Raptors for the rest of the season.
Gilbert Arenas – On January 4th, Arenas played 2-on-2 basketball and was able to cut and shoot. Then, on January 12th, Arenas told the Washington Times that he wasn't even close to coming back. One of two things is happening here:
1. Arenas is playing some huge practical joke and will be back way sooner then he is letting on.
2. Arenas is being completely serious and if he ever does make it back this season, it won't happen before April.
Prediction: At this point, I'm betting that Arenas doesn't play before April, if at all.
Elton Brand – I would not give up top 100 talent in a trade for Elton Brand. Even if Brand were to return and average 20 points and 10 rebounds in his first week back, I would not give up top 100 talent. Why? Because Brand's shoulder could crap out on him at any time. Brand is an injury timebomb with a fuse of unknown length.
Prediction: Brand puts up Nenad Krstic-type stats in limited minutes when he returns to the court. He re-injures his shoulder before the March rolls around.
NBA Search Market: Week 11
Predictions are, in a word, dumb. They also are misleading, silly, and potentially irresponsible. And yet, for some strange reason, I feel compelled to make them about nearly everything.
Here are ten predictions:
Pure Excitement
Devin Harris – After missing three of his last four games due to a hamstring injury, Harris practiced on Sunday without issues and appears to be on track to be in the starting lineup for Monday's game against OKC.
Prediction: Harris returns and stays healthy for the rest of the season, averaging 21 points and 6.5 assists on 44% shooting.
Brandon Roy – After missing four games with an injury, Roy returned to score 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists. He has a four-game week this week, so you should get him into your lineup.
Prediction: Roy, who finished last season with fifth-round value, will finish the 2008 – 2009 season with top thirteen value.
Basketball Jones marvels at Brandon Roy's 52-point outburst.
Roy's game-winning three makes the top ten plays of this season (so far).
Cautious Optimism
Mike Dunleavy – Two games. Dunleavy has only been back for two measly games. And yet, I'm itching to pretend like I know exactly what he'll do for the rest of the season now that I've watched him play in two games. Amazingly, Dunleavy has nearly mirrored his great stats from last year in his first two games even though he has been playing fourteen fewer minutes. His return, unquestionably, has been impressive.
When Dunleavy was hurt, the only question was whether or not he'd play this season, and if so, when. Now that he's playing again, we have all sorts of questions: Can Dunleavy stay healthy? How soon will Dunleavy by playing over thirty minutes per game? Will he duplicate his stats from last year or will he be more like the player he was during his first six years in the league? As a Dunleavy owner, you have a choice: you can choose to believe or you can choose to doubt.
Prediction: For his first ten games back, Dunleavy will play well and average 20 points a game in 25 minutes of play. In his eleventh game, his injury issues will crop back up and he'll be forced to shut it down.*
*Note: Take this (and all) predictions with a grain of salt. I'm the same guy who predicted that Dunleavy wouldn't come back this year. I also said last week that if he does come back, he would struggle to be even half as good as he was last year. I don't know why I have it out for Dunleavy.
Mike Dunleavy is impersonated: "Dunleavy wasn't at the game, but that didn't stop his teammates from cracking few jokes. One player asked me if I had talked to him before the game. I looked toward his locker and there was a mop turned upside down with a shirt over top of it as if that was Dunleavy. At least the players are staying loose despite their lack of victories."
*Will Dunleavy miss any more time this season? Give it a thumbs up or down.
Nenad Krstic – Last week, 83% of you thought Nenad would be better than 14 points, 7 rebounds. Nenad has played in three games so far and now seems like as good a time as any to completely overanalyze his stats for those three games. After all, everyone likes to have fun with small sample sizes. But before we do that, let's enumerate the things we know: 1. Krstic's coach has said that Nenad has "earned" more minutes and is picking up the playbook "quickly." 2. Chris Wilcox (DNP-CD in his last game) is not currently in the rotation. 3. Despite never averaging over 0.9 blocks per game in his career, Krstic is currently averaging 2.0 blocks in his first three games.
Prediction: It will take Krstic ten games before he's playing over 30 minutes, but once he hits the thirty minute mark, he'll average 16 points on 48% shooting, along with six rebounds, and 1.2 blocks. However, his assists and steals totals will be so minuscule that they will not be able to be seen by human eyes.
Nenad has a new nickname: "Krispy."
Dr. Steve on Nenad.
Here comes Nenad.
Rob Mahoney on Nenad: "Dude can play." Also: "Old news by now, but Nenad Krstic has made his triumphantly awkward return back to the States…"
Anthony Bogut – Bogut returned after missing four games with back spasms. I get the sense that many Bogut owners are quietly disappointed with his production so far this year.
Prediction: You will trade for Bogut and then be thankful you did when he maintains his current production in all his stats except blocks, which he increases to 1.5 blocked shots a game for the rest of the season.
"Did you know that last night was the first time in nearly two years that the Bucks have won a game when Andrew Bogut was not playing? I did not know that. But I am guessing that the Bucks' owners and executives will know that well, because Bogut's agent won't be letting them forget."
Unmitigated Wariness
Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is another player that I have soured on. But in his case, I know exactly why: I own Andrea Bargnani, and The Bargster only seems to only play well when O'Neal is not on the court. For this reason, I'm really hoping O'Neal continues to take his sweet time to come back from his swollen knee.
Prediction: O'Neal pulls a Carlos Boozer and misses most of the rest of the season. Ah, I don't really think that. But it would be nice if he did and if eternal tease Bargnani continued his recent resurgence.
O'Neal to play with second team? "While it's not as if the Raptors can disregard the veteran centre's averages of 14 points and seven rebounds a game, the continued improvement of Andrea Bargnani in the starter's role alongside Bosh seems to suggest allowing O'Neal to be the focus of the second unit would be most profitable for all concerned."
O'Neal says Toronto is stuck in losing loop: "Jermaine O'Neal feels like the Raptors are stuck in a never-ending loop, not unlike what unfolded in the movie Groundhog Day."
Monta Ellis – Ellis is in the "end stage" of his rehab and recently participated with the team.
Prediction: Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year.
"I've said that I don't think Ellis will ever play for the Warriors again"
Baron Davis – When someone suffers a bruised "tailbone" it is tempting to make jokes. But Baron's tailbone injury is no longer funny. He's already missed five games and doesn't seem likely to return anytime soon. Incidentally, the only thing dumber than making a prediction about a player's performance is to try to predict when a player will come back from injury.
Prediction: Baron returns after missing twelve more games. He shoots under 40% from the field in every single month of the season and every owner who drafted him wonders, during the quiet hours of the night, if they have bad fantasy basketball instincts.
BoomDizzle (AKA Baron Davis) challenges you.
Baron Davis and Steve Nash are related.
Active Worry
Marquis Daniels – The proof that I don't really believe my own Dunleavy prediction is that I've put Daniels in the "active worry" section. Truth is, Marquis hurt his groin at the worst possible time, as it prevents Daniels from continuing to get the minutes he "earned" with his good play when Dunleavy was out of the lineup. Even if Daniels does come back quickly, as long as Dunleavy is healthy enough to get at least fifteen minutes a game, Daniels will be worthless is most leagues.
Prediction: Even though there is talk about the Pacers going with a small starting lineup that includes Daniels, you will see a player you like on the wire and decide not to play things safe and you'll drop Daniels to pick up someone else and never look back.
Darius Miles – The 27-year-old Miles has no fantasy value, but if you are a fan of the Portland Trailblazers, the fact that Memphis is going to completely (and intentionally) screw over Portland is totally not cool, but totally legal. Rotoworld's own Ryan Knaus, who lives in Portland, is looking especially smart for being a Sonics fan.
Prediction: Miles plays in exactly two games for Memphis (one minute each game) before being cut. Miles never plays basketball in the NBA ever again.
Henry Abbott is a Blazer fan and is not worried.
Getting more mileage out of the Miles saga.
Is Miles one of the top 300 basketball players in the world?
Here are ten predictions:
Pure Excitement
Devin Harris – After missing three of his last four games due to a hamstring injury, Harris practiced on Sunday without issues and appears to be on track to be in the starting lineup for Monday's game against OKC.
Prediction: Harris returns and stays healthy for the rest of the season, averaging 21 points and 6.5 assists on 44% shooting.
Brandon Roy – After missing four games with an injury, Roy returned to score 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists. He has a four-game week this week, so you should get him into your lineup.
Prediction: Roy, who finished last season with fifth-round value, will finish the 2008 – 2009 season with top thirteen value.
Cautious Optimism
Mike Dunleavy – Two games. Dunleavy has only been back for two measly games. And yet, I'm itching to pretend like I know exactly what he'll do for the rest of the season now that I've watched him play in two games. Amazingly, Dunleavy has nearly mirrored his great stats from last year in his first two games even though he has been playing fourteen fewer minutes. His return, unquestionably, has been impressive.
When Dunleavy was hurt, the only question was whether or not he'd play this season, and if so, when. Now that he's playing again, we have all sorts of questions: Can Dunleavy stay healthy? How soon will Dunleavy by playing over thirty minutes per game? Will he duplicate his stats from last year or will he be more like the player he was during his first six years in the league? As a Dunleavy owner, you have a choice: you can choose to believe or you can choose to doubt.
Prediction: For his first ten games back, Dunleavy will play well and average 20 points a game in 25 minutes of play. In his eleventh game, his injury issues will crop back up and he'll be forced to shut it down.*
*Note: Take this (and all) predictions with a grain of salt. I'm the same guy who predicted that Dunleavy wouldn't come back this year. I also said last week that if he does come back, he would struggle to be even half as good as he was last year. I don't know why I have it out for Dunleavy.
Nenad Krstic – Last week, 83% of you thought Nenad would be better than 14 points, 7 rebounds. Nenad has played in three games so far and now seems like as good a time as any to completely overanalyze his stats for those three games. After all, everyone likes to have fun with small sample sizes. But before we do that, let's enumerate the things we know: 1. Krstic's coach has said that Nenad has "earned" more minutes and is picking up the playbook "quickly." 2. Chris Wilcox (DNP-CD in his last game) is not currently in the rotation. 3. Despite never averaging over 0.9 blocks per game in his career, Krstic is currently averaging 2.0 blocks in his first three games.
Prediction: It will take Krstic ten games before he's playing over 30 minutes, but once he hits the thirty minute mark, he'll average 16 points on 48% shooting, along with six rebounds, and 1.2 blocks. However, his assists and steals totals will be so minuscule that they will not be able to be seen by human eyes.
Anthony Bogut – Bogut returned after missing four games with back spasms. I get the sense that many Bogut owners are quietly disappointed with his production so far this year.
Prediction: You will trade for Bogut and then be thankful you did when he maintains his current production in all his stats except blocks, which he increases to 1.5 blocked shots a game for the rest of the season.
Unmitigated Wariness
Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is another player that I have soured on. But in his case, I know exactly why: I own Andrea Bargnani, and The Bargster only seems to only play well when O'Neal is not on the court. For this reason, I'm really hoping O'Neal continues to take his sweet time to come back from his swollen knee.
Prediction: O'Neal pulls a Carlos Boozer and misses most of the rest of the season. Ah, I don't really think that. But it would be nice if he did and if eternal tease Bargnani continued his recent resurgence.
Monta Ellis – Ellis is in the "end stage" of his rehab and recently participated with the team.
Prediction: Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year.
Baron Davis – When someone suffers a bruised "tailbone" it is tempting to make jokes. But Baron's tailbone injury is no longer funny. He's already missed five games and doesn't seem likely to return anytime soon. Incidentally, the only thing dumber than making a prediction about a player's performance is to try to predict when a player will come back from injury.
Prediction: Baron returns after missing twelve more games. He shoots under 40% from the field in every single month of the season and every owner who drafted him wonders, during the quiet hours of the night, if they have bad fantasy basketball instincts.
Active Worry
Marquis Daniels – The proof that I don't really believe my own Dunleavy prediction is that I've put Daniels in the "active worry" section. Truth is, Marquis hurt his groin at the worst possible time, as it prevents Daniels from continuing to get the minutes he "earned" with his good play when Dunleavy was out of the lineup. Even if Daniels does come back quickly, as long as Dunleavy is healthy enough to get at least fifteen minutes a game, Daniels will be worthless is most leagues.
Prediction: Even though there is talk about the Pacers going with a small starting lineup that includes Daniels, you will see a player you like on the wire and decide not to play things safe and you'll drop Daniels to pick up someone else and never look back.
Darius Miles – The 27-year-old Miles has no fantasy value, but if you are a fan of the Portland Trailblazers, the fact that Memphis is going to completely (and intentionally) screw over Portland is totally not cool, but totally legal. Rotoworld's own Ryan Knaus, who lives in Portland, is looking especially smart for being a Sonics fan.
Prediction: Miles plays in exactly two games for Memphis (one minute each game) before being cut. Miles never plays basketball in the NBA ever again.
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