Here are ten predictions:
Pure Excitement
Devin Harris – After missing three of his last four games due to a hamstring injury, Harris practiced on Sunday without issues and appears to be on track to be in the starting lineup for Monday's game against OKC.
Prediction: Harris returns and stays healthy for the rest of the season, averaging 21 points and 6.5 assists on 44% shooting.
Brandon Roy – After missing four games with an injury, Roy returned to score 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists. He has a four-game week this week, so you should get him into your lineup.
Prediction: Roy, who finished last season with fifth-round value, will finish the 2008 – 2009 season with top thirteen value.
Cautious Optimism
Mike Dunleavy – Two games. Dunleavy has only been back for two measly games. And yet, I'm itching to pretend like I know exactly what he'll do for the rest of the season now that I've watched him play in two games. Amazingly, Dunleavy has nearly mirrored his great stats from last year in his first two games even though he has been playing fourteen fewer minutes. His return, unquestionably, has been impressive.
When Dunleavy was hurt, the only question was whether or not he'd play this season, and if so, when. Now that he's playing again, we have all sorts of questions: Can Dunleavy stay healthy? How soon will Dunleavy by playing over thirty minutes per game? Will he duplicate his stats from last year or will he be more like the player he was during his first six years in the league? As a Dunleavy owner, you have a choice: you can choose to believe or you can choose to doubt.
Prediction: For his first ten games back, Dunleavy will play well and average 20 points a game in 25 minutes of play. In his eleventh game, his injury issues will crop back up and he'll be forced to shut it down.*
*Note: Take this (and all) predictions with a grain of salt. I'm the same guy who predicted that Dunleavy wouldn't come back this year. I also said last week that if he does come back, he would struggle to be even half as good as he was last year. I don't know why I have it out for Dunleavy.
Nenad Krstic – Last week, 83% of you thought Nenad would be better than 14 points, 7 rebounds. Nenad has played in three games so far and now seems like as good a time as any to completely overanalyze his stats for those three games. After all, everyone likes to have fun with small sample sizes. But before we do that, let's enumerate the things we know: 1. Krstic's coach has said that Nenad has "earned" more minutes and is picking up the playbook "quickly." 2. Chris Wilcox (DNP-CD in his last game) is not currently in the rotation. 3. Despite never averaging over 0.9 blocks per game in his career, Krstic is currently averaging 2.0 blocks in his first three games.
Prediction: It will take Krstic ten games before he's playing over 30 minutes, but once he hits the thirty minute mark, he'll average 16 points on 48% shooting, along with six rebounds, and 1.2 blocks. However, his assists and steals totals will be so minuscule that they will not be able to be seen by human eyes.
Anthony Bogut – Bogut returned after missing four games with back spasms. I get the sense that many Bogut owners are quietly disappointed with his production so far this year.
Prediction: You will trade for Bogut and then be thankful you did when he maintains his current production in all his stats except blocks, which he increases to 1.5 blocked shots a game for the rest of the season.
Unmitigated Wariness
Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is another player that I have soured on. But in his case, I know exactly why: I own Andrea Bargnani, and The Bargster only seems to only play well when O'Neal is not on the court. For this reason, I'm really hoping O'Neal continues to take his sweet time to come back from his swollen knee.
Prediction: O'Neal pulls a Carlos Boozer and misses most of the rest of the season. Ah, I don't really think that. But it would be nice if he did and if eternal tease Bargnani continued his recent resurgence.
Monta Ellis – Ellis is in the "end stage" of his rehab and recently participated with the team.
Prediction: Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year.
Baron Davis – When someone suffers a bruised "tailbone" it is tempting to make jokes. But Baron's tailbone injury is no longer funny. He's already missed five games and doesn't seem likely to return anytime soon. Incidentally, the only thing dumber than making a prediction about a player's performance is to try to predict when a player will come back from injury.
Prediction: Baron returns after missing twelve more games. He shoots under 40% from the field in every single month of the season and every owner who drafted him wonders, during the quiet hours of the night, if they have bad fantasy basketball instincts.
Active Worry
Marquis Daniels – The proof that I don't really believe my own Dunleavy prediction is that I've put Daniels in the "active worry" section. Truth is, Marquis hurt his groin at the worst possible time, as it prevents Daniels from continuing to get the minutes he "earned" with his good play when Dunleavy was out of the lineup. Even if Daniels does come back quickly, as long as Dunleavy is healthy enough to get at least fifteen minutes a game, Daniels will be worthless is most leagues.
Prediction: Even though there is talk about the Pacers going with a small starting lineup that includes Daniels, you will see a player you like on the wire and decide not to play things safe and you'll drop Daniels to pick up someone else and never look back.
Darius Miles – The 27-year-old Miles has no fantasy value, but if you are a fan of the Portland Trailblazers, the fact that Memphis is going to completely (and intentionally) screw over Portland is totally not cool, but totally legal. Rotoworld's own Ryan Knaus, who lives in Portland, is looking especially smart for being a Sonics fan.
Prediction: Miles plays in exactly two games for Memphis (one minute each game) before being cut. Miles never plays basketball in the NBA ever again.
No comments:
Post a Comment