Jose Calderon – As a Calderon owner, I'm almost happy that he's probably going to miss Monday and Wednesday's games. I want him to get his hamstring fully healed before returning to play. Remember that big game he had on December 29th (see timeline)? There will be a lot more of those in the near future.
Prediction: After missing two more games, Calderon returns and immediately goes back to dishing out the fourth-most assists in the NBA (on a per-game basis).
Cautious Optimism
Monta Ellis – Remember that scene in Braveheart when all those horses are charging across a field at Mel Gibson? You know, Mel is instructing his men, who are holding pointed sticks, to wait until the last minute to raise said pointed sticks and stab said charging horses? (If you want to refresh your memory, click here and go to the 5:05 mark.) Sorry for the old, outdated, reference, but that is how I feel about Monta Ellis right now: "Steady….hold….hold…"
Prediction: I'm sticking with my prediction from last week that Ellis returns at some point in January and averages stats that are 90% as good has his stats from last year. The reason I'm saying he'll only get to 90% is not because of his ankle, which seems to be fine, but because I think it will be hard for him to get his fitness level to where it needs to be in order to consistently perform at a high level. Tangentially, it is worth pointing out that Marco Belinelli might be rendered useless after Ellis returns.
Nick Young – Young is hot. Conventional wisdom says to pick him up if at all possible. Problem is, Young, like Von Wafer, doesn't do much more than score, and so his margin for error is extremely small. If you have too many guys like Nick Young on your team, you're setting yourself up for fantasy heartbreak. That said, as long as he's getting playing time, he'll get you lots of points.
Prediction: Young will be irrelevant fantasy-wise the second DeShawn Stevenson returns from injury.*
Stephen Jackson – After missing four games with an injury, Jackson returned to score 24 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and four steals. If you play in a weekly league that only starts eight players, Jackson will kill your field goal percentage and your turnover totals and he is borderline unstartable. However, if you play in daily leagues or weekly leagues with nine or more starters, his ability in the other seven categories should more than make up for his deficiencies in TOs and FG%.
Prediction: Jackson will finish the year shooting under 40% from the field.
Al Horford – Paul Millsap, Lamar Odom, and Horford are thinking of starting a rock band called "The Bone Bruises." Horford will play a solid-but-not-phenomenal bass, Millsap will get the flashy role of lead singer / guitar, and Odom, the drummer, will not be nearly as essential to the band but will get lots of chicks.
Prediction: Whenever Horford's bruise heals, he'll go right back to pumping out his typical statline.
Paul Millsap – It is possible that Millsap won't help you as much as usual this week, but Millsap owners have to happy that his injury wasn't more serious.
Prediction: Millsap's teammate, Kosta Koufos, will be a top 80 fantasy player at some point in his career.
Unmitigated Wariness
Baron Davis – You know, if your team is in dead last place, Davis might actually be a decent guy to target in a trade. My own personal feeling is that he will continue to disappoint, but if your team really needs a prayer, Davis has the skill to help turn your team around. I just don't think it will happen this year.
Prediction: Davis eventually returns from his bruised tailbone but he continues to shoot under 40% for the rest of the season. Next year, Davis is drafted in the fifth round and goes on to play all 82 games and have an amazing season.
Active Worry
Jermaine O'Neal – O'Neal is back from his swollen knee problems, sort of.
Prediction: O'Neal has one good game in late January, and on the strength of that game he is traded to the Miami Heat for Shawn Marion. Andrea Bargnani starts for the Raptors for the rest of the season.
Gilbert Arenas – On January 4th, Arenas played 2-on-2 basketball and was able to cut and shoot. Then, on January 12th, Arenas told the Washington Times that he wasn't even close to coming back. One of two things is happening here:
1. Arenas is playing some huge practical joke and will be back way sooner then he is letting on.
2. Arenas is being completely serious and if he ever does make it back this season, it won't happen before April.
Prediction: At this point, I'm betting that Arenas doesn't play before April, if at all.
Elton Brand – I would not give up top 100 talent in a trade for Elton Brand. Even if Brand were to return and average 20 points and 10 rebounds in his first week back, I would not give up top 100 talent. Why? Because Brand's shoulder could crap out on him at any time. Brand is an injury timebomb with a fuse of unknown length.
Prediction: Brand puts up Nenad Krstic-type stats in limited minutes when he returns to the court. He re-injures his shoulder before the March rolls around.
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