NBA Search Market: Week 4

I have a friend who can high jump two meters. She can high jump over Ben Wallace, even with his ‘fro out. The question she is most frequently asked is if she can dunk a basketball (she can’t). When she explains that she can’t, the asker often does not believe her and suggests it might be merely a matter of hand size and asks if she can dunk a tennis ball (she can’t).

Another friend of mine is excellent at math and is currently working as a mathematician. New acquaintances, he says, first groan when they hear what he does for a living, and then they say, “I’m horrible at math.” Sometimes they follow this up by stating how far along they progressed in the math world (I never made it past calculus, they might say to him).

A 6’ 8” friend of mine is repeatedly approached by complete strangers who ask him, “you ball?” (He does, sort of: volleyball.)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is frequently asked to sign his father’s memorabilia. Can you imagine if every day of your life someone stuck your dead father's hat or a shirt in your hand and asked you to sign it?

I once got into a cab in New York City and was surprised to see that the cab driver was female. While a small part of my brain knew that I shouldn't reference her gender because she'd probably had her gender referenced by nearly all of her passengers, a slightly larger part of my brain wanted to ask her about it anyway.

I thought I was being clever when I asked her, “what percentage of your passengers make some comment about you being female?”

She took her eyes away from the road and looked at me for a good half second, and then looked forward again. “Including you? One-hundred percent,” she said.

Let’s move on and discuss some frequently asked questions (FAQ) regarding Rotoworld’s most searched players:

The NBA Search Market: Week 4



The Lingering Injured

Deron Williams, Mike Dunleavy, & Michael Redd – These three players have been lingering in the top ten for a minimum of three weeks. If you own one of these guys, you have three options:
1. Hold
2. Trade
3. Drop
Owners that own all three of these guys have a fourth option:
4. Cry
The correct answer, in all three cases, is to hold (and/or cry). If you don’t own one of these guys, trading for them is an option. I have been actively trying to trade for Williams in my league. Dunleavy scares the heck out of me, even though the latest news on him is actually positive. If I had Dunleavy on my team, I’d wait for him to play a few games and then sell him, even if I didn’t get full value for him. Perhaps I’m being melodramatic, but the sort of injury he has (they are calling it tendonitis) could linger all year. Redd should be fine, but I’m not all that interested. I find it hard to get excited about a player that gets most of his value from scoring points and hitting three pointers. I would even rather have the messy stats lines that Andre Iguodala has been throwing up recently over the relative emptiness/cleanliness of a typical Redd stat line.

Either way, my guess is that Redd and Williams owners aren’t selling anyway. I have always found that trades are difficult to pull off when a player is surrounded by uncertainty. (It is possible that the current credit crunch is an example of this behavior. I’d be more certain of this if I new what the word “credit” meant. Crunch I understand. I like crunch in my granola.) Owners seem wary of making a foolish move. But maybe you have a bold owner in your league who likes to wheel and deal in times of uncertainty. If you do, why not make an offer?

FAQ – What is the timetable for return for these three guys? The minute I answer this question, some new Rotoworld blurb will pop up contradicting what I’ve just written. So if you own these guys, your best bet is to check for updates regularly. But is a synopsis of the latest news:
Williams – He is day-to-day. He was a game-time decision on Friday (11/21) but didn’t play. Williams has missed 10 games so far this year and counting…
Dunleavy – The poor guy had only missed 10 games in his entire career going into this season. He reportedly is participating in workouts and “looks good.” But what does this mean? Is he one week away? Two? Your guess is as good as mine. Dunleavy has missed ten games and counting…
Redd – He wanted to play on Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week (11/18 & 11/18) but was not ready. The logical conclusion to make would be that he’d be ready for his next game, right? But he did not play in his Friday (11/21) game. His next three games are on Saturday (11/22), Monday (11/24), and Wednesday (11/26). You have to figure he’ll come back for one of those games, right? He’s practicing, he’s listed as day-to-day, but he still has some residual pain. Redd has missed 10 games and counting…

Deron Williams is really getting into the games, even if he isn’t actually getting into the games.

The Latest Wounded

Kevin Martin – The president of the team says Martin isn’t ready to return anytime soon. Whatever that means. You probably can’t use him this coming week. FAQ – Is it just me, or does it seem like there are a lot of guys who have lingering ankle injuries this year? Martin has missed seven games and counting…

Proof of Concept

Jose Calderon – Interest in Calderon spiked when he tweaked his hamstring. After having what I call a “throat clearing” game in his first game back from injury, Calderon proved that he is healthy in his second game back when he set season highs in both points and assists. I call these sorts of games “Proof of Concept” (PoC) games. He’s back. FAQ – Did Calderon just drop 26 points and 15 assists on New Jersey? Yup.

Career Highs In Points

Andrea Bargnani – At any given moment, I have five or six guys I want to pick up. Bargnani, after his career high 29-point outburst on Friday (11/21), is an easy add in twelve-team leagues. He’s a tougher case in ten-team leagues, because he’s pulled this Tyrus Thomas rollercoaster act before, like when he had 15.1ppg and 4.7rpg in February of last year. But what if he keeps it up this time? Most owners have finite benches, and so the real difficulty becomes figuring out which guy to drop. I hate his microscopic steals and assist totals. But what has me so tempted this time around is his increased block rate (.5 in 2007, 1.5 in 2008) and percentages. If these numbers are for real, then Bargnani is a SF/PF/C eligible guy who can help you out in six or seven of the nine fantasy basketball categories. He’s currently ranked 48th on Basketball Monster, one slot ahead of Wilson Chandler. FAQ – Does anyone else think Bargnani looks a little bit like Pablo Schreiber (Nick Sobotka from Season 2 of the The Wire)?

D.J. Augustin – He scored a career high 26 points in his first game as a starter. So he can score. But what about the other categories? Well, he has yet to block a shot. He has only four steals all year. Before Friday’s 7-for-11 performance from behind the three point line, he had been 5-for-26 (19.2%) for the year. His shooting percentage is in the low forties. He shot 78.3% from the free throw line at Texas. He’s not immune from turnovers. So he doesn’t appear to be a guy who fills the stat sheet. FAQ – Pick him up? Yes, if you have someone to drop, but be reasonable.

D.J.’s college stats.

Anthony Morrow – Morrow followed up his career high 37-point game with a 25-point game. His seven point game on Friday (11/21) was considerably less impressive. So where does that leave us? Well, everyone is raving about him, and it seems that he can really play. FAQ – But will he get the minutes and/or shots now that Jamal Crawford is on the team? Will Morrow become a most dropped player by this time next week? My guess is that he’ll lose some value, but still be worthy of a roster spot. We’ll have to wait and see.

The Big Trade

Al Harrington – The trade will be fine for Harrington, but it might screw with the fantasy dreams of Wilson Chandler, Jamal Crawford, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Morrow, among others.

I almost never like when the players I own get traded, especially if they’ve been in a groove before the trade. Take Jamal Crawford. He will essentially be starting a new job and moving all at the same time. As someone who has moving phobia, it makes me anxious just thinking about it. Perhaps I’m still scarred from a 2006 Julio Lugo (yes, baseball) trade that ruined what could have been a career year for Lugo. But not all trades are bad. Last year, Devin Harris owners got a nice boost after he was traded to New Jersey. Who knows how this thing will shake out, but count me among the wary when it comes to the value of any player affected by the trade not named Al Harrington.

Steve Alexander on the trade.

Not everyone thinks Harrington will help the Knicks.

The Crawford side of the trade.

Free Darko on the trade.

Oh, That Was So Last Week

JaVale McGee – After two unimpressive games as starter, people are starting to lose interest in McGee. Maybe he’s like Ben Gordon, who seems to play better off the bench. He might get a chance to test out this theory if he keeps playing this way. FAQ – Do I hold onto this guy? Yes, if you can. Remember all that hype from last week? A lot of it was true. For example, the guy really is seven feet tall. He could click and start to throw up some double doubles. Hold him if you can, and if he’s on the wire in your league, keep one eye on him for the next few weeks.

NBA Search Market: Week 3

I recently invented four arbitrary rules for rooting against a team:
1. Each year, you may select one Team To Root Against (TTRA)
2. You can only root against one professional sports team per calendar year.
3. Once you publicly declare your TTRA, you must continue to root against that team for the remainder of that season.
4. You are allowed to pick one player on your TTRA that is not considered blameworthy.

Got it? Last year, using these rules, I actively rooted against the New York Knicks and gave David Lee the not-to-be-blamed slot (mostly because he shares the same name as my father-in-law). This year, however, the Knicks are a fun team. Jamal Crawford scores. Wilson Chandler is the exciting new rookie. Chris Duhon is the Charlie Ward-like point guard. I can root for that. Even Nate Robinson seems a little less of a ball hog this year.

So just like that, in a span of one year, the train-wreck 23 win, 59 loss Knicks have become the “upstart” six win, three loss New York Knicks (the quotes are not intended to show that I aware that the use of the word "upstart" is clichéd.). I haven’t picked a TTRA yet this year, but I’m leaning towards Chicago. With the possible exceptions of Derrick Rose and Ben Gordon, their team is filled with fantasy headaches. Still, I’m holding out hope that Luol Deng and Tyrus Thomas can cash in on their considerable talent and lead their team to a string of victories. I give the Bulls until the end of December to turn things around. After that, I just might slap the TTRA label on them.

One other administrative item: last week I pumped Roger Mason Jr., and he immediately tanked. In order to keep myself honest, I’m going to keep track of my predictions and prescriptions throughout the season and post them in this space. I haven’t completely finished generating my accountability mechanism, but is should by ready to debut next week.

Ok, now let’s check out how the search markets are doing:

The NBA Search Market: Week 3



10. Charlie Villanueva

Impetus for searches – Demotion, injury. When will he return, and when he does will he get enough minutes to be worth of a roster spot?

There is some good news – Villanueva started the first eight games of the season. In his ninth game of the year, he lost his starting job and then hurt his hamstring. In doing so, however, he made a guy in desperate need of a nickname fantasy relevant: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Vote on the nickname you think is best for Mbah a Moute:



But ultimately, the news is bad – The hamstring will heal. Villanueva is a risky play for Week 4, but after that his hamstring should be fine. The bigger concern is that the player Villanueva lost his starting role to, Mbah a Moute, doesn’t look like he’s going to give it back any time soon, as Mbah a Moute dropped 19 points and 17 rebounds on Memphis on Friday.

Suggested Reading:

Charlie might not be a star, but maybe it’s okay if he’s just happy to have made the league. Isn’t that enough, demanding fantasy owners?

9. Shawn Marion

Impetus for searches – Return from injury, performing below expectations. Will we ever see that consensus #1 pick in fantasy basketball Marion again?

There is some good news – Marion seems to have put his lingering groin injury behind him, as he went for 12 points, 12 rebounds in 29 minutes on Friday.

But ultimately, the news is bad – Fantasy owners didn’t spend a first round pick on Marion so he could go 12-12 in 29 minutes. That’s what you get on a good Andrew Bynum night, not a Shawn Marion night. What’s especially strange to me is that Marion, a career 82% free throw shooter, is somehow shooting in the sixty percent range since arriving in Miami. It really is almost as if he is a different player. So what can we expect going forward? Probably not as good as the 22 points, 12 rebounds he averaged in his 2005-06 season, and certainly not as bad as the 11 points, 10 rebounds he’s averaging this year. I’m guessing—a pure guess here—that he’ll settle somewhere in between, maybe at 15 points, 10 rebounds or so. If you are expecting more, you are probably going to be disappointed. He’ll still be a top twenty-five fantasy player and worth holding onto, so don’t panic and trade him away for peanuts.

Suggested Reading:

Marion’s tattoo doesn’t mean what he thinks it means.

8. Greg Oden

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. How soon, if ever, will he become a double-double machine?

There is some bad news – While it was great to see him back on the court, he only played 16 minutes in his first game back and looked pretty uncoordinated throughout his three point, two rebound, two block effort.

But ultimately, the news is good – In his second game back, he played 24 minutes and had 11 points,11 rebounds, and four blocks. In this third game back, he played 24 minutes and had 13 points and 8 rebounds and three blocks. Oden is one of those guys who some people really like and others think that he’s worthless. I happen to like Oden. It’s debatable whether or not he can stay healthy, but if he’s getting a consistent 25 plus minutes a night, he will probably post at least one double-double a week. And you have to think that he’ll occasionally have nights where he blocks more than five shots and/or gathers in 15 plus rebounds. I know the guy looks like the oldest player in the league, but give him a break, as he’s only 20 years old.

Suggested Reading:

The definition of the word “odenize.

7. Corey Maggette

Impetus for searches – Injury. Can Maggette owners start him in Week 4?

There is some bad news – Maggette recently returned to the court after missing four games with a hamstring injury. Maggette claims to be “doing all the necessary stuff” in order to keep his hamstrings healthy, but you have to be a little concerned because hamstring injuries can linger. Hold your breath for his first five games or so and hope he doesn’t suffer a setback.

But ultimately, the news is good – At the end of the day, Maggette only had a “mild” strain, so there really isn’t all that much to be concerned about. His first game back was a little rocky, but his 17 point, five rebound effort in 26 minutes his second game back should be enough to convince even the most cautious owners that he’s ready to be put back into the starting lineup.

Suggested Reading:

A Maggette teammate puts up an interesting line.

Deadspin claims Maggette will fit perfectly with Denver’s offense.

6. Devin Harris

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. Will his injury linger, or can I plug him right into my lineup?

There is some bad news – In his first game back from injury, Harris limped noticeably throughout the game.

But ultimately, the news is good – Sure, he was limping a little, but did you happen to notice that the also threw up 30 points? He was running more fluidly in his second game, and he scored 33 points. He now has three 30 plus point games in a row, and his trade value has never been higher.

Suggested Reading:

Devin loses a game of one-on-one to a regular bloke.

FAQ regarding Devin getting beaten in a one-on-one basketball game.

5. Deron Williams

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. When is Williams going to be back? Can I start him for my Week 4 H2H matchup?

There is some bad news – Williams returned from his ankle injury, but after playing 30 plus minutes in two straight games, he decided his ankle needed a little more time to heal. In the short term, it looks like Williams will be frustrating to own until his ankle completely heals, and it is probably better to keep him benched for Week 4 if you are in a weekly league.

But ultimately, the news is good – Now might a good time to trade for him, as his owners may have forgotten how good he is (although my experience has always been that owners holding onto slightly injured players tend to overvalue them, making a trade all but impossible). Give him another week or two, and he’ll be back to his old self.

Suggested Reading:

D. Williams tried to play but his ankle just wasn’t ready.

D. Williams wilderness survival guide.

D. Williams not very good at paper basketball.

4. Josh Howard

Impetus for searches – Return from injury. When Williams returns from his wrist injury, will he play at a high level?

There is some bad news – Howard missed two games with a wrist injury.

But ultimately, the news is good – Wrist injury sounds scary, but he returned and went for 21-11 and 25-9 in his first two games back, and so it appears the wrist injury wasn’t serious.

Suggested Reading:

Howard will be fine. If you can’t calm down, maybe this Steve Nash comedy will help.

The Mavs should not be ashamed of Josh Howard.

A must-read interview with Josh Howard.

3. JaVale McGee

Impetus for searches – Hot pickup. Who is this guy, and is he worth a roster spot?

There is some bad news – He’s the sort of guy that people say has “upside,” which is really just a euphemism for a player who hasn’t done jack anything yet.

But ultimately, the news is good – He’s seven feet tall and Juan Dixon says there is no reason he can’t be “the next Dwight Howard.” While it is possible that Dixon was merely referring to McGee penchant for missing free throws (he’s shooting 48% from the line so far this year), he could also mean that McGee’s nine point, six rebound, 1 plus block per game averages could double with a little more playing time.

Suggested Reading:

Wizznutzz on JaVale.

The Big Secret.

Dwight Howard thinks McGee is going to be "nice."

The JaVale McGee FAQ.

2. Mike Dunleavy

Impetus for searches – Injured. When will Dunleavy get back on the court?

There is some good news – His current return date is indefinite, but if you are a T.J. Ford owner, you can at least feel good knowing Dunleavy’s absence may have helped Ford be more valuable fantasy-wise.

But ultimately, the news is bad – For the third straight week, Dunleavy makes the top ten most searched list. In his case, that is not a good thing. Owners are getting desperate for information, but there really isn’t any new information out there. Sure, it can be frustration to watch as other owners snatch up guys like McGee while you are forced to hold onto Dunleavy, but you can’t drop him yet. To review, Dunleavy has tendonitis. That’s what the Pacers are calling Dunleavy’s knee injury. Tendonitis, complicated by a bone spur. The injury has not shown improvement, and coach Jim O’Brien has expressed his concern, as has Dunleavy himself. There are three possible options, and two of them are bad: 1. Dunleavy heals and is playing in a few weeks or so. 2. Dunleavy’s tendonitis is chronic, and he never gets fully healthy all year. 3. Dunleavy, after realizing that the knee isn’t getting better, decides to have surgery. If you are a Dunleavy owner, you can’t drop him yet, and he has no trade value. Your best bet is just to hold onto him and to keep monitoring his status.

Suggested Reading:

Trade Dunleavy?

Dunleavy can’t say when he’ll be back: “Fans, teammates and even his wife have been in his ear about a return date from his right knee injury.”

How to predictcareer years?

Dunleavy takes a kick to the face courtesy of Ira Newble.

1. Michael Redd

Impetus for searches – Injury. When will he return to the court?

There is some bad news – There is uncertainty surrounding Redd’s injury, but more of the “when” kind and not much of the “if” kind. He has already missed seven games, which is a lot of games for an injury that was considered day-to-day.

But ultimately, the news is good – After initially scaring owners everywhere by calling his injury a “high” ankle sprain, it appears that the injury is just a regular sprain. He not the safest Week 4 start for owners in weekly H2H leagues, as he may or may not return on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week. Be sure to check Rotoworld for updates before setting your lineup for the week.

Suggested Reading:

A Bucks blog that sometimes has some updates about Redd.

If you find yourself forgetting how good Redd is, watch this.