NBA Search Market: Week 7

Pure Excitement

Gerald Wallace – Mr. Gerald Wallace has risen to the sixth slot of the NBA Search Market in Week 7, presumably because he missed three games while attending his grandmother's funeral in Sylacauga, Alabama. Well, you need not search for Mr. Gerald Wallace any longer, as his first game back featured a 22 point, nine rebound, three steal effort. Speaking of steals, Wallace is currently eighth in the NBA in steals on a per-game basis. Sometimes I wonder if Wallace's amazing steal ability keeps his shooting percentage artificially high, as his steals lead to lots of easy dunks. The NBA Hotspots site somewhat confirms this hypothesis, as he is 30-of-88 (or 34%) on shots taken from outside the key. I'm not really sure what this means, except that his shooting percentage might go down if he suddenly stops being the steals monster he's always been throughout his career.

Rodney Stuckey – Stuckey is starting! Stuckey is starting! Great news for Stuckey owners, but I think it is also great news for owners of any Detroit Piston, as well as any Detriot Piston fan. The Pistons are searching for their identity right now, and at this point it is unclear how long that process will take. With Joe Dumars involved, you have to feel good about the Pistons' chances of finding their identity sooner rather than later. And once it happens, and once each Piston is clear on what his role is, I think you'll start to see Stuckey turn the ball over less, dish out more assists, and have his field goal percentage increase. And I think you'll start to see the Pistons start to win.

Not every Piston fan agrees. A Piston fan friend of mine went to the recent Pistons-Wizards game, which also happened to be Stuckey's first start. He lamented the fact that the Pistons looked completely lost on the court. His thought was that Chauncey Billups had been responsible for the team's focus and that Rip and Sheed (who both had good games that day, statistically speaking) were in their own worlds without Billups, as they spent most of the game wrapped up in their own one-on-one head games (versus Caron and Blatche, respectively) against an inferior team. He doesn't think the Pistons can be fixed without another trade, and he might be on to something, as Sheed is reportedly on the trading block. Either way, I have faith in all things Dumbledore Dumars, and my sense is that Stuckey will grow to become the "fix" (or part of the fix) that the Pistons need.

Here is Stuckey's NBA Hotspot for the last ten games:It appears he's been pretty successful at getting into the lane and hitting mid-range jumpers. Also, for a guy who's been called Rajon Rondo-lite, he's actually starting to hit some three-pointers.

If you only click on one link in this column, make it this one. On second thought, maybe I shouldn't have put this link under the "excited" section.

Rotoworld's Steve Alexander was calling Stuckey the hottest sleeper in fantasy sports way back on July 24th of this year: "We still haven't seen the shakeup in Detroit that Joe Dumars promised, but there's a long way to go before the season starts. Stuckey is already possibly the hottest 'sleeper' in fantasy hoops, despite not having a starting slot secured. If the shakeup does occur, his stock will climb even higher. Stuckey is a guy I wouldn't be afraid to drop a seventh-round selection on this year, at least as of today." Now that is some excellent foresight. As a recent addition to the Stuckey bandwagon, maybe I'm over-compensating here, but Stuckey should be higher than 104th in the Season Pass top 200 rankings.* He should be, at worst, in that 90th slot right behind Beno. (Or maybe even 84th, as Steve originally predicted with his 7th-round pick suggestion, assuming he meant the 7th round of a 12-team draft.) Perhaps this is only a 14-spot quibble, but the point is that Stuckey's stock is soaring right now, at least in markets of my mind.

*Should Stuckey be ranked higher than 104? Give it a thumbs up or down.

Cautious Optimism

Nate Robinson – Nate is back! After missing seven of his last eight games with a groin injury, Robinson returned to the court and dropped 19 points on Sacramento. Last week I warned about Robinson's field goal percentage. This week I'll try to stay positive. Robinson's coach recently stated that the starting shooting guard spot will be Robinson's for the rest of the season. Which makes sense, as his only real competition, Cuttino Mobley, just retired due to a heart condition. This is great news for owners, as it seems like any player getting serious minutes in the Mike D'Antoni system is a fantasy all star. As an aside, is anyone else surprised, nay, amazed, to see Chris Duhon, he of 7.3 ppg, 4.8 assist career average, suddenly be a 12.1 / 8.6 guy? Duhon is only behind Chris Paul in total assists. Craziness. Anyway. Good luck trying to sell high on any Knick at this point in the season. You can always try, but my guess is that people won't really start to believe in any of the Knazin' Knicks until January, as that is the month when fantasy owners realize 1. Their team isn't as good as they thought it was and they need help and 2. The Knicks will have been producing for two plus months by then, and it is difficult to be a fantasy faker for two plus months. Update: Robinson will come off the bench for the next two games. Until he is a starter for a week or so, I'm going to keep him in this "cautiously optimistic" section.

Watch the Knicks score with ease.

Rotoworld's Ryan Knaus makes a great case for Robinson being a buy low candidate.

Dwight Howard In H2H Format – Howard has been a great head-to-head asset this year. That said, Howard recently came down with the dreaded "sore left knee" syndrome that has been going around the NBA. More alarming, perhaps, is the rumored oblique strain. Hopefully this is just a day-to-day thing (he is likely to miss his game on Monday at this point) and he isn't entering the late Shaquille O'Neal stage of his career already.

Carlos Boozer – I do not think you need to be wary of Boozer. Yet. Let me explain. You see, I have a theory, and it goes something like this: you should be worried about injuries that sound really harmless but keep a player out for a long time. Mike Dunleavy, for example, had "knee soreness," and now he hasn't played in a game yet this season. So it concerns me a little bit when Boozer is missing games because of a "strained" quad. Isn't a strained quad a fifteen-minute injury? It's essentially like bumping your shin: you think you're going to die when it first happens, but fifteen minutes later you're removing a beehive out of the attic at the behest of your spouse.

So the fact that he's missed thirteen games is concerning. They do this in the NFL a lot. A player will leave the game with a "bruised" arm and then you find out a day later a more accurate description is he "ripped his triceps muscle clean off the bone." Anyway, not trying to be needlessly alarmist, here. I still think Boozer will be back soon. But if he isn't back by next week, he's going to drop into the "wary" section below.

Unmitigated Wariness

Corey Maggette – I used to think that I could be a scout for the NBA. I watched tons of college basketball, and at that time I really didn't think it was that difficult to determine if a player was NBA-worthy. This changed after the 1998-1999 season when Corey Maggette was drafted after his freshman year at Duke University. Maggette had played only 17.7 minutes a game for Duke, and while his dunks were spectacular, he often looked lost on the court, especially during the NCAA championship game against UConn. And yet this was the guy that scouts had decided should be the thirteenth pick of the draft, one pick ahead of a starter on his own team, point guard William Avery.

Well, those scouts must know something, as Maggette is in the middle of his tenth productive NBA season, while William Avery is playing for, at last check, AEK Greece.

So, as you probably heard, Maggette is out indefinitely with a small tear in his right hamstring. This seems more likely to be something that will keep Maggette off the court for weeks or months rather than days and his injury is certainly cause for concern if you are his owner. But before we go and get teary-eyed about it, let's wait for a doctor to tell us how long it will take before he can come back.

Maggette's college stats, as well as a scouting report: "Weaknesses: Defense, decision-making, ability to play team ball, and hamstrings."

Even before Maggette was injured, some folks started to get tired of him: "Five games, five Golden State losses and a more than 2:1 turnover-to-assist ratio. Maggette's selfish play hasn't gone unnoticed by other players. According to sources, after the final buzzer against Boston, Celtics forward Kevin Garnett turned to Maggette and shouted, 'Way to get your numbers.'" Then again, anything Garnett screams while on the court should be taken with a grain of salt.

Are the Warriors better without Maggette?

Stephen Jackson – I wonder how many times a week Jackson's first name is incorrectly spelled as "Steven." Stop and think: do you have any friends named "Stephen?" And when you Facebook your friend Stephen, are you sure that you don't slip up and write "Steven" by accident? I don't want to make too big a deal out of this, but at the same time, I don't want to make Stephen Jackson angry. We all know what happens when Jackson gets angry. Jackson, who is trying to play through a few injuries, including a toe and an injury to his non-shooting hand, is the number one most-searched player on Rotoworld this week. So far, playing through his injuries hasn't been working so well as he's shot a terrible 30% in his last six games. Anyone else think he could miss a few games in the upcoming week? Consider yourself warned.

Steven, I mean Stephen Jackson and a friend. Apparently Jackson is a White Sox fan.

Free Darko says that Stephen Jackson sometimes strikes him "as really Jewish."

Active Worry

Dwight Howard In Roto Format – It is statistically impossible to win a roto format fantasy basketball league with Howard's 56% FT percentage dragging you down.* I have no proof of this, but have enough anecdotal evenidence that I feel confortable saying it as if I do have real evidence. Even though I have no evidence. Which I already said. Okay, maybe I'm wrong. But at the very least, I'd be surprised if you were able to win your roto league with Howard in your lineup.

*Is D-Ho nearly impossible to win with in Roto format?

Josh Howard and Kevin Martin – Out indefinitely. Two words no owner wants to hear. I wouldn't put these two players in Dunleavy territory yet when it comes to worry, but you should remain very concerned until you get wind of some sort of timetable for their respective returns. Both are intriguing buy low candidates. In fact, Steve Alexander calls Josh Howard "one of the best buy-low candidates of all time." I'm not quite as high on Howard, but if you can get him on the cheap...

Mike Dunleavy – Ten days ago we were told that Dunleavy was going to test out his knee in 10-14 days. No word on if that happened or if the idea was scrapped. What we do know is that our trusty Rotoworld news blurbs are openly admitting that Dunleavy might be out for the entire year. Yikes.

If you believe that Dunleavy's top five ranking each week for the first six weeks of the season indicated that fantasy owners still had hope in his return, then you should note that Dunleavy fell to ninth in the search market this week. I don't want to read too much into this, but perhaps owners are finally losing hope?

I lived in Durham, NC when Mike was going to college at Duke and I frequently saw him around town. One time I saw Mike at the Macaroni Grille. Another time I saw Mike at the movie theater. And yet, the thing that made the biggest impression on me was this picture of Mike getting kicked in the face by Ira Newble.

NBA Search Market: Week 5

The fate of Marbury Version 2008-2009 might be decided on Monday. My response: there is no evidence that anyone should care. Yes, I know he's averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career, but I refuse to believe that he will ever gain fantasy relevance, and you should only pick him up in the deepest of leagues. If you are deciding between Marbury and Goran Dragic, fine. But if you are deciding between Marbury and anyone else, pick up anyone else instead. Not to be overly flip, but part of me is hoping that Marbury shoots himself in the leg sometime this week.

To prove my point, I want to once again look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:

 
Player  FG%   FT%   3PTM  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK  TO
A       41.9  71.6  1.2  13.9  2.5  4.7  .9  .1  2.0
B       39.4  71.5  1.9  13.1  3.5  5.3  1.3  .2  2.2

Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer "Skip To My Lou" Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury lands on a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn't rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn't out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That's not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy?

Marbury to the Suns or the Spurs?

The latest Marbury zingers.

The Knicks might pay to make this Marbury creep go away.

"Are you going to get in the truck?"

"One day I might be able to buy the Knicks."

The Lingering Injured

Kevin Martin and Mike Dunleavy – If someone in my league were to drop Dunleavy, I wouldn't drop the worst guy on my team's bench to pick Dunleavy up. His injury is being now being called "serious" and there is still no timetable for his return. If Dunleavy is on your team, one strategy would be to drop him and then monitor his status closely so you can be ready to pick him up in the unlikely event that we get some good news regarding his injury and/or return.

Martin has now missed twelve games, but he claims that he's going to try to play on Tuesday of this week. Bench him until he proves that he is healthy.

More on Dunleavy's knee.

The Latest Wounded

Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley – Mobley (heart) should be back this week while Boozer (quad) will miss at least one more week. I'm curious to see how Mobley fits in with the Knicks. If the Knicks keep scoring a billion points a night, Mobley could have value. If he starts at shooting guard, fifteen points a game and two three pointers might be the best you get from him, although ten points and one three pointer per game feels more likely.

Proof of Concept

Deron Williams, Michael Redd, and Jason Richardson – All three of these players have recently played in "Proof of Concept" (PoC) games. They're back, and they are better than ever.

Well, not quite. Williams says his ankle might bother him all year, and so he looks like he might become more of a 10 point, 12 assist guy. Still good, but just know that he might not score as many points as in the past. Think of him more as a Deron mutant who is good but has slightly different strengths. (Maybe we should call him Darin or Darren until he returns to his old self.) Deron still needs to prove that his ankle can stand up to the rigors of playing three or four games a week. You should have your answer by this time next week.

After a long wait, Redd owners were rewarded with a 20-point effort. Plug and play.

After missing seven games, Richardson is back, and he played his usual messy style of game on back-to-back nights. But I must confess that every player on Charlotte and Golden State worries me, and Richardson is no exception. I dislike being at the whim of Larry Brown and/or Nellie, and I have been trying to trade every player I own who is on either team. Perhaps this is overly neurotic. Fine. Speaking of fine, Richardson should be fine going forward, so you can get him into your starting lineup.

Career High In Points

Eric Gordon – Gordon gets two weeks (or more) to prove himself now that Ricky Davis out with a busted knee. Does that mean your knee-jerk reaction should be to pick him up? Yes, actually. Although, the hamstring injury that Gordon sustained in his Nov. 29th game is some cause for concern.

Since Gordon's injury doesn't seems serious, I'm going to discuss his value as if it doesn't exist. Before the NBA season started, some scouts considered Eric Gordon to be, at best, a rich man's Ben Gordon. His worst-case scenario? Shannon Brown. Let's assume he's closer to 80% of a Ben Gordon until further notice.

Is Eric Gordon about to become Baron Davis' new Monta Ellis?

Eric Gordon isn't used to sitting.

Eric Gordon scout drool.



A New Starter

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook helped the Thunder break a fourteen-game losing streak in his first start. However, before you pick Westbrook up, it is important that you set reasonable expectations for his near-term production. The rookie is shooting 34.9% from the field and he's not exactly prolific from behind the three-point line (0.4 made per game), and he turns the ball over 2.4 times a game in the 27 minutes per game he's been playing so far this year. In college, he only shot 68.5% from the free throw line and only 35% from behind the college three-point line, and he turned the ball over 2.5 times a game. He only had seven blocks in his entire final college season. Think of him as a sexier Rafer Alston who doesn't hit threes. Sorry, did that comparision just kill your enthusiasm? Don't dispair, as there is plenty to like. Here are the stats that are for real: rebounds, assists, and steals. As a starter getting 35 minutes a game, he might average 15 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Just realize that the FG% could remain low, the FT% might dip below 80%, he doesn't take many threes, and his turnovers will increase with more playing time. He could also lose the job, as his coach his said his promotion is "not set in stone." His next game is Wednesday of this week.

Some Westbrook scout drool.

Is Westbrook a higher scoring version of Rajon Rondo?

Westbrook's college stats.

Westbrook can certainly dunk with authority.

FreeDarko on Westbrook's upside: "Westbrook just has insane Dwyane-Wade-like upside and is fast becoming my favorite player in the league."

NBA Search Market: Week 4

I have a friend who can high jump two meters. She can high jump over Ben Wallace, even with his ‘fro out. The question she is most frequently asked is if she can dunk a basketball (she can’t). When she explains that she can’t, the asker often does not believe her and suggests it might be merely a matter of hand size and asks if she can dunk a tennis ball (she can’t).

Another friend of mine is excellent at math and is currently working as a mathematician. New acquaintances, he says, first groan when they hear what he does for a living, and then they say, “I’m horrible at math.” Sometimes they follow this up by stating how far along they progressed in the math world (I never made it past calculus, they might say to him).

A 6’ 8” friend of mine is repeatedly approached by complete strangers who ask him, “you ball?” (He does, sort of: volleyball.)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is frequently asked to sign his father’s memorabilia. Can you imagine if every day of your life someone stuck your dead father's hat or a shirt in your hand and asked you to sign it?

I once got into a cab in New York City and was surprised to see that the cab driver was female. While a small part of my brain knew that I shouldn't reference her gender because she'd probably had her gender referenced by nearly all of her passengers, a slightly larger part of my brain wanted to ask her about it anyway.

I thought I was being clever when I asked her, “what percentage of your passengers make some comment about you being female?”

She took her eyes away from the road and looked at me for a good half second, and then looked forward again. “Including you? One-hundred percent,” she said.

Let’s move on and discuss some frequently asked questions (FAQ) regarding Rotoworld’s most searched players:

The NBA Search Market: Week 4



The Lingering Injured

Deron Williams, Mike Dunleavy, & Michael Redd – These three players have been lingering in the top ten for a minimum of three weeks. If you own one of these guys, you have three options:
1. Hold
2. Trade
3. Drop
Owners that own all three of these guys have a fourth option:
4. Cry
The correct answer, in all three cases, is to hold (and/or cry). If you don’t own one of these guys, trading for them is an option. I have been actively trying to trade for Williams in my league. Dunleavy scares the heck out of me, even though the latest news on him is actually positive. If I had Dunleavy on my team, I’d wait for him to play a few games and then sell him, even if I didn’t get full value for him. Perhaps I’m being melodramatic, but the sort of injury he has (they are calling it tendonitis) could linger all year. Redd should be fine, but I’m not all that interested. I find it hard to get excited about a player that gets most of his value from scoring points and hitting three pointers. I would even rather have the messy stats lines that Andre Iguodala has been throwing up recently over the relative emptiness/cleanliness of a typical Redd stat line.

Either way, my guess is that Redd and Williams owners aren’t selling anyway. I have always found that trades are difficult to pull off when a player is surrounded by uncertainty. (It is possible that the current credit crunch is an example of this behavior. I’d be more certain of this if I new what the word “credit” meant. Crunch I understand. I like crunch in my granola.) Owners seem wary of making a foolish move. But maybe you have a bold owner in your league who likes to wheel and deal in times of uncertainty. If you do, why not make an offer?

FAQ – What is the timetable for return for these three guys? The minute I answer this question, some new Rotoworld blurb will pop up contradicting what I’ve just written. So if you own these guys, your best bet is to check for updates regularly. But is a synopsis of the latest news:
Williams – He is day-to-day. He was a game-time decision on Friday (11/21) but didn’t play. Williams has missed 10 games so far this year and counting…
Dunleavy – The poor guy had only missed 10 games in his entire career going into this season. He reportedly is participating in workouts and “looks good.” But what does this mean? Is he one week away? Two? Your guess is as good as mine. Dunleavy has missed ten games and counting…
Redd – He wanted to play on Tuesday and Wednesday of this past week (11/18 & 11/18) but was not ready. The logical conclusion to make would be that he’d be ready for his next game, right? But he did not play in his Friday (11/21) game. His next three games are on Saturday (11/22), Monday (11/24), and Wednesday (11/26). You have to figure he’ll come back for one of those games, right? He’s practicing, he’s listed as day-to-day, but he still has some residual pain. Redd has missed 10 games and counting…

Deron Williams is really getting into the games, even if he isn’t actually getting into the games.

The Latest Wounded

Kevin Martin – The president of the team says Martin isn’t ready to return anytime soon. Whatever that means. You probably can’t use him this coming week. FAQ – Is it just me, or does it seem like there are a lot of guys who have lingering ankle injuries this year? Martin has missed seven games and counting…

Proof of Concept

Jose Calderon – Interest in Calderon spiked when he tweaked his hamstring. After having what I call a “throat clearing” game in his first game back from injury, Calderon proved that he is healthy in his second game back when he set season highs in both points and assists. I call these sorts of games “Proof of Concept” (PoC) games. He’s back. FAQ – Did Calderon just drop 26 points and 15 assists on New Jersey? Yup.

Career Highs In Points

Andrea Bargnani – At any given moment, I have five or six guys I want to pick up. Bargnani, after his career high 29-point outburst on Friday (11/21), is an easy add in twelve-team leagues. He’s a tougher case in ten-team leagues, because he’s pulled this Tyrus Thomas rollercoaster act before, like when he had 15.1ppg and 4.7rpg in February of last year. But what if he keeps it up this time? Most owners have finite benches, and so the real difficulty becomes figuring out which guy to drop. I hate his microscopic steals and assist totals. But what has me so tempted this time around is his increased block rate (.5 in 2007, 1.5 in 2008) and percentages. If these numbers are for real, then Bargnani is a SF/PF/C eligible guy who can help you out in six or seven of the nine fantasy basketball categories. He’s currently ranked 48th on Basketball Monster, one slot ahead of Wilson Chandler. FAQ – Does anyone else think Bargnani looks a little bit like Pablo Schreiber (Nick Sobotka from Season 2 of the The Wire)?

D.J. Augustin – He scored a career high 26 points in his first game as a starter. So he can score. But what about the other categories? Well, he has yet to block a shot. He has only four steals all year. Before Friday’s 7-for-11 performance from behind the three point line, he had been 5-for-26 (19.2%) for the year. His shooting percentage is in the low forties. He shot 78.3% from the free throw line at Texas. He’s not immune from turnovers. So he doesn’t appear to be a guy who fills the stat sheet. FAQ – Pick him up? Yes, if you have someone to drop, but be reasonable.

D.J.’s college stats.

Anthony Morrow – Morrow followed up his career high 37-point game with a 25-point game. His seven point game on Friday (11/21) was considerably less impressive. So where does that leave us? Well, everyone is raving about him, and it seems that he can really play. FAQ – But will he get the minutes and/or shots now that Jamal Crawford is on the team? Will Morrow become a most dropped player by this time next week? My guess is that he’ll lose some value, but still be worthy of a roster spot. We’ll have to wait and see.

The Big Trade

Al Harrington – The trade will be fine for Harrington, but it might screw with the fantasy dreams of Wilson Chandler, Jamal Crawford, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Morrow, among others.

I almost never like when the players I own get traded, especially if they’ve been in a groove before the trade. Take Jamal Crawford. He will essentially be starting a new job and moving all at the same time. As someone who has moving phobia, it makes me anxious just thinking about it. Perhaps I’m still scarred from a 2006 Julio Lugo (yes, baseball) trade that ruined what could have been a career year for Lugo. But not all trades are bad. Last year, Devin Harris owners got a nice boost after he was traded to New Jersey. Who knows how this thing will shake out, but count me among the wary when it comes to the value of any player affected by the trade not named Al Harrington.

Steve Alexander on the trade.

Not everyone thinks Harrington will help the Knicks.

The Crawford side of the trade.

Free Darko on the trade.

Oh, That Was So Last Week

JaVale McGee – After two unimpressive games as starter, people are starting to lose interest in McGee. Maybe he’s like Ben Gordon, who seems to play better off the bench. He might get a chance to test out this theory if he keeps playing this way. FAQ – Do I hold onto this guy? Yes, if you can. Remember all that hype from last week? A lot of it was true. For example, the guy really is seven feet tall. He could click and start to throw up some double doubles. Hold him if you can, and if he’s on the wire in your league, keep one eye on him for the next few weeks.