NBA Search Market: Week 6

The Lingering Injured

Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, and Josh Howard – Target Boozer in trades. When healthy, he can sometimes be slightly overrated, as he doesn't block much for a big man. In fact, last year, according to basketballmonster.com, he had negative value for three pointers made, assists, blocks, turnovers, and free throw percentage. Still, his huge positive value for field goal percentage, as well as his solid points and rebound totals more than made up for his negatives. Until his injury, he was putting up similar numbers this season. As far as setting lineups, the Jazz have three games next week and you should count on Boozer to play in zero of them. He's missed ten games so far and right now it looks like he'll be playing again after his 12th or 13th missed game.

Dunleavy has been in the top ten of the search market every single week of this year, which probably means his poor owners are obsessively searching for updates on his status. The latest is that he's going to test out his knee in a few days, but I wouldn't get your hopes up too much. Remember that in mid-November, he "practiced hard" for two straight days and "looked strong." So power to you if you decide to cling to your Dunleavy, as you certainly have more patience than me. As I said last week, I would leave Dunleavy on the wire in my ten-team league if some other owner were to drop him.

Howard has been out since mid-November. That's a long time. And before that he had a recurring wrist injury. And now he is out "indefinitely." You might consider waiting for him to have a few big games if/when he returns and then selling him off to the highest bidder.

Hope that's difficult to believe in: Dunleavy's local paper says he's getting closer to returning.

The Latest Wounded

Nate Robinson and Elton Brand – Robinson has been having a very good year so far. The injury and re-injury to his groin will certainly slow down his momentum, and you have to think that the Knicks won't throw Robinson back out there until he's completely healed. He missed four games the first time he injured his groin, so I'll speculate that he'll miss double that this time around. One other word of caution on Nate Robinson: He shot 43% from the field as a college player and has never shot better than 43.4% in any season as a pro. His current 46.5% field goal shooting percentage might be a bubble waiting to pop. Still, Robinson is a guy who went to college on a football scholarship and then walked onto the basketball team and ultimately decided to go the basketball route, a decision that took some guts as NFL scouts liked him, but as you can probably guess, the 5'8" Robinson really had to prove himself on the court. So, maybe his ample amount of guts will help him shoot 3% better this year than any other year in his career.

Much like Boozer, I've been trying to trade from Brand. Philly is a bit of a mess, but the one constant has been that Brand is the focal point of the offense. He's currently day-to-day with a strained hamstring, and this makes him a decent bet to play Philly's next game, which isn't until Wednesday. Still, I wouldn't start him in weekly leagues. I tend to be cautious when it comes to injuries because I fear getting a goose egg from a roster spot.

Triumphant Return

Jared Jeffries and Andrei Kirilenko – In his first two games back, Jefferies has been averaging 6.5 points in 19 minutes of play. The best thing I can say about him is that coaches throughout his career have insisted on playing him at all. I'm a little baffled by the interest in Jefferies as he's a guy who did his most "damage" in his 2004-05 season when he averaged 6.8 points and 4.9 rebounds in 26 minutes of playing time. My guess is that some owners are after his rebound potential, as there are usually fewer than 25 guys on the waiver wire who are getting more than even five rebounds a game.

AK47 is one of those guys that some owners look and at shake their heads, as they remember how good he used to be, while others got him for relatively cheap this year and are fairly pleased with his current level of production. He really does a little of everything, but unfortunately the emphasis between "little" and "everything" is more equally weighted than some owners would like. In his first game back from his sprained ankle, he scored seven points, had five boards, six assists, two steals, and two blocks.

Eric Gordon better than Ben Gordon?

Eric Gordon – Status update: Eric Gordon is averaging 13.1 ppg as a starter so far this year. Ben Gordon is averaging 21.2 ppg as a starter. Last week, I guessed that Eric would end up being 80% as good as Ben this year. Eric is currently only 62% as good as Ben (at least when it comes to scoring).

Still, a good 32.5% of you are convinced Eric will be the better Gordon this year. You might be right, but I'm sticking to my 80%-as-good-as-Ben number.

Gordon vs. Conley and Oden back in HS.

Can We Agree to Forget and Forget?

Stephon Marbury – I said what I had to say about Marbury here. All sorts of rumors are flying around about him right now, but I continue to you advise you not to care, unless you like getting emotionally invested in soap operas. At this point, any value Marbury has is likely to be the backup point guard type.

Marbury and game theory.

Marbury on D'Antoni: "I wouldn't trust him to walk my dog across the street."

Free Darko defends Marbury.

Marbury a good fit in DC?



Gilbert's Wax Statue is In Uniform; Gilbert is Not

Gilbert Arenas – When Gilbert says his knee is currently is the "high 80's" and that "if it were up to him he'd already be playing," you really can't believe him. I'm more inclined to believe his coach who says they don't yet have a plan for his return. Personally, I'm crossing my fingers for February. My birthday is that month, and getting Arenas back to his usual self would be an excellent birthday gift.

A rap song about Agent Zero.

You tell us: When should Arenas return?

Interested in studying Gilbert?

Arenas' latest blog entry is about his Obama tattoo.

NBA Search Market: Week 5

The fate of Marbury Version 2008-2009 might be decided on Monday. My response: there is no evidence that anyone should care. Yes, I know he's averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career, but I refuse to believe that he will ever gain fantasy relevance, and you should only pick him up in the deepest of leagues. If you are deciding between Marbury and Goran Dragic, fine. But if you are deciding between Marbury and anyone else, pick up anyone else instead. Not to be overly flip, but part of me is hoping that Marbury shoots himself in the leg sometime this week.

To prove my point, I want to once again look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:

 
Player  FG%   FT%   3PTM  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK  TO
A       41.9  71.6  1.2  13.9  2.5  4.7  .9  .1  2.0
B       39.4  71.5  1.9  13.1  3.5  5.3  1.3  .2  2.2

Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer "Skip To My Lou" Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury lands on a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn't rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn't out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That's not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy?

Marbury to the Suns or the Spurs?

The latest Marbury zingers.

The Knicks might pay to make this Marbury creep go away.

"Are you going to get in the truck?"

"One day I might be able to buy the Knicks."

The Lingering Injured

Kevin Martin and Mike Dunleavy – If someone in my league were to drop Dunleavy, I wouldn't drop the worst guy on my team's bench to pick Dunleavy up. His injury is being now being called "serious" and there is still no timetable for his return. If Dunleavy is on your team, one strategy would be to drop him and then monitor his status closely so you can be ready to pick him up in the unlikely event that we get some good news regarding his injury and/or return.

Martin has now missed twelve games, but he claims that he's going to try to play on Tuesday of this week. Bench him until he proves that he is healthy.

More on Dunleavy's knee.

The Latest Wounded

Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley – Mobley (heart) should be back this week while Boozer (quad) will miss at least one more week. I'm curious to see how Mobley fits in with the Knicks. If the Knicks keep scoring a billion points a night, Mobley could have value. If he starts at shooting guard, fifteen points a game and two three pointers might be the best you get from him, although ten points and one three pointer per game feels more likely.

Proof of Concept

Deron Williams, Michael Redd, and Jason Richardson – All three of these players have recently played in "Proof of Concept" (PoC) games. They're back, and they are better than ever.

Well, not quite. Williams says his ankle might bother him all year, and so he looks like he might become more of a 10 point, 12 assist guy. Still good, but just know that he might not score as many points as in the past. Think of him more as a Deron mutant who is good but has slightly different strengths. (Maybe we should call him Darin or Darren until he returns to his old self.) Deron still needs to prove that his ankle can stand up to the rigors of playing three or four games a week. You should have your answer by this time next week.

After a long wait, Redd owners were rewarded with a 20-point effort. Plug and play.

After missing seven games, Richardson is back, and he played his usual messy style of game on back-to-back nights. But I must confess that every player on Charlotte and Golden State worries me, and Richardson is no exception. I dislike being at the whim of Larry Brown and/or Nellie, and I have been trying to trade every player I own who is on either team. Perhaps this is overly neurotic. Fine. Speaking of fine, Richardson should be fine going forward, so you can get him into your starting lineup.

Career High In Points

Eric Gordon – Gordon gets two weeks (or more) to prove himself now that Ricky Davis out with a busted knee. Does that mean your knee-jerk reaction should be to pick him up? Yes, actually. Although, the hamstring injury that Gordon sustained in his Nov. 29th game is some cause for concern.

Since Gordon's injury doesn't seems serious, I'm going to discuss his value as if it doesn't exist. Before the NBA season started, some scouts considered Eric Gordon to be, at best, a rich man's Ben Gordon. His worst-case scenario? Shannon Brown. Let's assume he's closer to 80% of a Ben Gordon until further notice.

Is Eric Gordon about to become Baron Davis' new Monta Ellis?

Eric Gordon isn't used to sitting.

Eric Gordon scout drool.



A New Starter

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook helped the Thunder break a fourteen-game losing streak in his first start. However, before you pick Westbrook up, it is important that you set reasonable expectations for his near-term production. The rookie is shooting 34.9% from the field and he's not exactly prolific from behind the three-point line (0.4 made per game), and he turns the ball over 2.4 times a game in the 27 minutes per game he's been playing so far this year. In college, he only shot 68.5% from the free throw line and only 35% from behind the college three-point line, and he turned the ball over 2.5 times a game. He only had seven blocks in his entire final college season. Think of him as a sexier Rafer Alston who doesn't hit threes. Sorry, did that comparision just kill your enthusiasm? Don't dispair, as there is plenty to like. Here are the stats that are for real: rebounds, assists, and steals. As a starter getting 35 minutes a game, he might average 15 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Just realize that the FG% could remain low, the FT% might dip below 80%, he doesn't take many threes, and his turnovers will increase with more playing time. He could also lose the job, as his coach his said his promotion is "not set in stone." His next game is Wednesday of this week.

Some Westbrook scout drool.

Is Westbrook a higher scoring version of Rajon Rondo?

Westbrook's college stats.

Westbrook can certainly dunk with authority.

FreeDarko on Westbrook's upside: "Westbrook just has insane Dwyane-Wade-like upside and is fast becoming my favorite player in the league."