Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, and Josh Howard – Target Boozer in trades. When healthy, he can sometimes be slightly overrated, as he doesn't block much for a big man. In fact, last year, according to basketballmonster.com, he had negative value for three pointers made, assists, blocks, turnovers, and free throw percentage. Still, his huge positive value for field goal percentage, as well as his solid points and rebound totals more than made up for his negatives. Until his injury, he was putting up similar numbers this season. As far as setting lineups, the Jazz have three games next week and you should count on Boozer to play in zero of them. He's missed ten games so far and right now it looks like he'll be playing again after his 12th or 13th missed game.
Dunleavy has been in the top ten of the search market every single week of this year, which probably means his poor owners are obsessively searching for updates on his status. The latest is that he's going to test out his knee in a few days, but I wouldn't get your hopes up too much. Remember that in mid-November, he "practiced hard" for two straight days and "looked strong." So power to you if you decide to cling to your Dunleavy, as you certainly have more patience than me. As I said last week, I would leave Dunleavy on the wire in my ten-team league if some other owner were to drop him.
Howard has been out since mid-November. That's a long time. And before that he had a recurring wrist injury. And now he is out "indefinitely." You might consider waiting for him to have a few big games if/when he returns and then selling him off to the highest bidder.
Hope that's difficult to believe in: Dunleavy's local paper says he's getting closer to returning.
The Latest Wounded
Nate Robinson and Elton Brand – Robinson has been having a very good year so far. The injury and re-injury to his groin will certainly slow down his momentum, and you have to think that the Knicks won't throw Robinson back out there until he's completely healed. He missed four games the first time he injured his groin, so I'll speculate that he'll miss double that this time around. One other word of caution on Nate Robinson: He shot 43% from the field as a college player and has never shot better than 43.4% in any season as a pro. His current 46.5% field goal shooting percentage might be a bubble waiting to pop. Still, Robinson is a guy who went to college on a football scholarship and then walked onto the basketball team and ultimately decided to go the basketball route, a decision that took some guts as NFL scouts liked him, but as you can probably guess, the 5'8" Robinson really had to prove himself on the court. So, maybe his ample amount of guts will help him shoot 3% better this year than any other year in his career.
Much like Boozer, I've been trying to trade from Brand. Philly is a bit of a mess, but the one constant has been that Brand is the focal point of the offense. He's currently day-to-day with a strained hamstring, and this makes him a decent bet to play Philly's next game, which isn't until Wednesday. Still, I wouldn't start him in weekly leagues. I tend to be cautious when it comes to injuries because I fear getting a goose egg from a roster spot.
Triumphant Return
Jared Jeffries and Andrei Kirilenko – In his first two games back, Jefferies has been averaging 6.5 points in 19 minutes of play. The best thing I can say about him is that coaches throughout his career have insisted on playing him at all. I'm a little baffled by the interest in Jefferies as he's a guy who did his most "damage" in his 2004-05 season when he averaged 6.8 points and 4.9 rebounds in 26 minutes of playing time. My guess is that some owners are after his rebound potential, as there are usually fewer than 25 guys on the waiver wire who are getting more than even five rebounds a game.
AK47 is one of those guys that some owners look and at shake their heads, as they remember how good he used to be, while others got him for relatively cheap this year and are fairly pleased with his current level of production. He really does a little of everything, but unfortunately the emphasis between "little" and "everything" is more equally weighted than some owners would like. In his first game back from his sprained ankle, he scored seven points, had five boards, six assists, two steals, and two blocks.
Eric Gordon better than Ben Gordon?
Eric Gordon – Status update: Eric Gordon is averaging 13.1 ppg as a starter so far this year. Ben Gordon is averaging 21.2 ppg as a starter. Last week, I guessed that Eric would end up being 80% as good as Ben this year. Eric is currently only 62% as good as Ben (at least when it comes to scoring).
Still, a good 32.5% of you are convinced Eric will be the better Gordon this year. You might be right, but I'm sticking to my 80%-as-good-as-Ben number.
Stephon Marbury – I said what I had to say about Marbury here. All sorts of rumors are flying around about him right now, but I continue to you advise you not to care, unless you like getting emotionally invested in soap operas. At this point, any value Marbury has is likely to be the backup point guard type.
Gilbert's Wax Statue is In Uniform; Gilbert is Not
Gilbert Arenas – When Gilbert says his knee is currently is the "high 80's" and that "if it were up to him he'd already be playing," you really can't believe him. I'm more inclined to believe his coach who says they don't yet have a plan for his return. Personally, I'm crossing my fingers for February. My birthday is that month, and getting Arenas back to his usual self would be an excellent birthday gift.
The fate of Marbury Version 2008-2009 might be decided on Monday. My response: there is no evidence that anyone should care. Yes, I know he's averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career, but I refuse to believe that he will ever gain fantasy relevance, and you should only pick him up in the deepest of leagues. If you are deciding between Marbury and Goran Dragic, fine. But if you are deciding between Marbury and anyone else, pick up anyone else instead. Not to be overly flip, but part of me is hoping that Marbury shoots himself in the leg sometime this week.
To prove my point, I want to once again look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:
Player FG% FT% 3PTM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO A 41.9 71.6 1.2 13.9 2.5 4.7 .9 .1 2.0 B 39.4 71.5 1.9 13.1 3.5 5.3 1.3 .2 2.2
Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer "Skip To My Lou" Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury lands on a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn't rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn't out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That's not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy?
Kevin Martin and Mike Dunleavy – If someone in my league were to drop Dunleavy, I wouldn't drop the worst guy on my team's bench to pick Dunleavy up. His injury is being now being called "serious" and there is still no timetable for his return. If Dunleavy is on your team, one strategy would be to drop him and then monitor his status closely so you can be ready to pick him up in the unlikely event that we get some good news regarding his injury and/or return.
Martin has now missed twelve games, but he claims that he's going to try to play on Tuesday of this week. Bench him until he proves that he is healthy.
Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley – Mobley (heart) should be back this week while Boozer (quad) will miss at least one more week. I'm curious to see how Mobley fits in with the Knicks. If the Knicks keep scoring a billion points a night, Mobley could have value. If he starts at shooting guard, fifteen points a game and two three pointers might be the best you get from him, although ten points and one three pointer per game feels more likely.
Proof of Concept
Deron Williams, Michael Redd, and Jason Richardson – All three of these players have recently played in "Proof of Concept" (PoC) games. They're back, and they are better than ever.
Well, not quite. Williams says his ankle might bother him all year, and so he looks like he might become more of a 10 point, 12 assist guy. Still good, but just know that he might not score as many points as in the past. Think of him more as a Deron mutant who is good but has slightly different strengths. (Maybe we should call him Darin or Darren until he returns to his old self.) Deron still needs to prove that his ankle can stand up to the rigors of playing three or four games a week. You should have your answer by this time next week.
After a long wait, Redd owners were rewarded with a 20-point effort. Plug and play.
After missing seven games, Richardson is back, and he played his usual messy style of game on back-to-back nights. But I must confess that every player on Charlotte and Golden State worries me, and Richardson is no exception. I dislike being at the whim of Larry Brown and/or Nellie, and I have been trying to trade every player I own who is on either team. Perhaps this is overly neurotic. Fine. Speaking of fine, Richardson should be fine going forward, so you can get him into your starting lineup.
Career High In Points
Eric Gordon – Gordon gets two weeks (or more) to prove himself now that Ricky Davis out with a busted knee. Does that mean your knee-jerk reaction should be to pick him up? Yes, actually. Although, the hamstring injury that Gordon sustained in his Nov. 29th game is some cause for concern.
Since Gordon's injury doesn't seems serious, I'm going to discuss his value as if it doesn't exist. Before the NBA season started, some scouts considered Eric Gordon to be, at best, a rich man's Ben Gordon. His worst-case scenario? Shannon Brown. Let's assume he's closer to 80% of a Ben Gordon until further notice.
Russell Westbrook – Westbrook helped the Thunder break a fourteen-game losing streak in his first start. However, before you pick Westbrook up, it is important that you set reasonable expectations for his near-term production. The rookie is shooting 34.9% from the field and he's not exactly prolific from behind the three-point line (0.4 made per game), and he turns the ball over 2.4 times a game in the 27 minutes per game he's been playing so far this year. In college, he only shot 68.5% from the free throw line and only 35% from behind the college three-point line, and he turned the ball over 2.5 times a game. He only had seven blocks in his entire final college season. Think of him as a sexier Rafer Alston who doesn't hit threes. Sorry, did that comparision just kill your enthusiasm? Don't dispair, as there is plenty to like. Here are the stats that are for real: rebounds, assists, and steals. As a starter getting 35 minutes a game, he might average 15 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Just realize that the FG% could remain low, the FT% might dip below 80%, he doesn't take many threes, and his turnovers will increase with more playing time. He could also lose the job, as his coach his said his promotion is "not set in stone." His next game is Wednesday of this week.
My fellow Rotoworld searchites, I urge you to type Roger Mason Jr.’s name into the search area in the upper right-hand corner of your computer screen and then click that red “go” button. Do this a few hundred times if you have nothing better to do. Our goal is to have Mason in the top ten by Week 3.
Why, you ask? Simple. In standard nine-category leagues, only thirteen other players in the entire NBA are more valuable than Mason. Don’t believe me? See for yourself on Basketball Monster. Bottom line: Roger Mason Jr. is currently flying under the radar and he deserves to have top ten buzz.
You think I’m manipulating the market? You think I’m guilty of the NBA Search Market equivalent of insider trading? Perhaps. But that shouldn’t be your biggest concern. More of a worry is the fact that Mason is sure to lose minutes when Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker return from injuries in mid-December. But we can cross that bridge when we come to it. Until then, Mason is a must add in nearly all leagues. For the next few weeks, you can think of him as capable of putting up Jamal Crawford-like stats, only maybe even slightly better.
There, that should be enough propaganda to get the Mason hype machine purring like a kitten. So get searching. You only have seven days left to make Mason the king of the Rotoworld Search Market.
The NBA Search Market: Week 2
10. Chauncey Billups
Impetus for searches – Trade. How will his trade to Denver effect his value?
There is some bad news – Initially, you can expect some inconsistency from Billups as he his adjusts to his new environs. Billups has just had his entire life uprooted, so be patient.
But ultimately, the news is good – The conventional wisdom among sports writers is that Billups is more of a “true” point guard, and that he will bring pass-first mentality that had previously been lacking with AI. This explanation feels too easy and false and irks me, as it is a conclusion drawn more from persona than fact. Ultimately, however, it doesn’t really matter if Billups is a pass-first or pass-second or pass-seventh point guard, as long as he’s producing for his owners. Right? His debut was a little rocky, but better games are ahead.
Impetus for searches – Moved into starting linup. Is he worthy of a pickup?
There is some bad news – I read Steve Alexander’s Friday chat and was amazed to see the frequency with which Wright’s first name was misspelled. If you are in a league where spelling somehow factors in, this could become a problem. The only other bit of bad news is that Wright is still really young and is still developing. As he showed in his last two games, he has a little of the Tyrus rollercoaster in him.
But ultimately, the news is good – The bottom line is that if he’s getting a consistent 30 plus minutes a game, he’ll probably be worth owning and even starting. There is always the risk of some drama, given that Nellie and Harrington are involved, but you have to think that Nellie won’t mess with Wright’s head too much. As for Wright’s bio and skills, he was a one-and-done guy at UNC and has a long frame and is very good in transition offense and at blocking shots. He is an above-average rebounder. He’s still a little on the skinny side, so might have trouble banging with the bigger guys. He’s very good inside of ten feet. He’s got a great hook shot. His free throw shot is ugly, though. Unless he's improved significantly from college (where he shot 57% from the line), expect a terrible FT%. His outside shot is also ugly.
Impetus for searches – Pregnancy (his wife just gave birth to twins). When will Barnes return to the team? Can I start him for my Week 3 H2H matchup?
There is some bad news – Barnes’ wife was pregnant and due to give birth around Thanksgiving. When she unexpectedly went into labor earlier this week, Matt left the team to be with his wife.
But ultimately, the news is good – Twins! Barnes is scheduled to return to the team for his Monday game. Feel free to put him in your starting lineup. Fun fact: Steve Nash and his wife Alejandra Amarilla also have twins.
Impetus for searches – Injury. Can Maggette owners start him in Week 3?
There is some bad news – Here is Maggette’s coach discussing Maggette’s injury: “First of all, he doesn’t play worth a sh*t when he’s trying to play hurt.” Delicately put, Nellie. Maggette claims to be “doing all the necessary stuff” for his hamstrings, but you have to be a little concerned because hamstring injuries can linger. He’s certainly a risky play this week, and you probably should keep him on your bench until he proves that he’s healthy.
But ultimately, the news is good – He only has a “mild” strain and should return to full strength soon. Check back after his team’s Sunday game and see if there are any additional updates on his status.
Suggested Reading:
Deadspin claims Maggette will fit perfectly with Denver’s offense.
6. Ramon Sessions
Impetus for searches – Hot pickup. Is he worth a roster spot?
There is some good news – Sessions was in the starting lineup for two games while Luke Ridnour let his sensitive back heal. He also played 35, 20, & 34 minutes in his last three games off the bench, but that was largely because Michael Redd was out with a sprained ankle. Still, Sessions sneezes and he gets eight or nine assists. And, in case you missed it, he was really good when he started last year: in seven games as a starter in 2007, he averaged 13.1 points, 13.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, .4 blocks, .3 three pointers made, and shot 46.9% from the field and 73.7 percent from the line. Those of you in leagues with huge benches should save a seat for Sessions, as this fantasy tease could luck into some playing time and reward patient owners.
But ultimately, the news is bad – Most of you are not in leagues with huge benches, and as soon as Redd returns from his ankle injury on Monday of Week 3, Sessions won’t get enough minutes to warrant a roster spot. While it is counter-intuitive that a player who plays so well at the end of one year can be ignored by his coach at the start of the next, that is what is going on here. While you and I might believe in him, he will struggle for playing time as long as his coach does not.
Impetus for searches – Drama. Is he worth a roster spot?
There is some good news – He’s averaged 20 points, 8 assists over the course of his fourteen-year career. There is a 2% chance that he’ll be traded to a team that needs a starting point guard. If that ever happens, he may gain fantasy relevance.
But ultimately, the news is bad – A quick recap: Marbury’s coach won’t play him because the team is moving in a new direction. Marbury wants to play, if not in New York, than somewhere else. However, to be traded, Marbury will probably have to agree to cut his salary, something he is understandably unwilling to do. So, his coach has said he will ride the bench all year. Hard to say where things go from here (when dealing with Marbury, anything is possible), but putting all the drama and inevitable future drama aside for a second (for more on this, look at the suggested reading below), let’s look at the 2007 stats of two point guards, both of whom played an average of 34 minutes per game:
Player FG% FT% 3PTM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO A 41.9 71.6 1.2 13.9 2.5 4.7 .9 .1 2.0 B 39.4 71.5 1.9 13.1 3.5 5.3 1.3 .2 2.2
Which player would you rather have, Player A or Player B? Before you answer, I should say that both point guards are 6’2”, both grew up in New York City, both are currently in their early thirties, and both are pretty washed up. So, what’s your answer? Neither, right? Well, Player A is Marbury, and Player B is Rafer “Skip To My Lou” Alston. What this says to me is that even if Marbury gets traded, and even if he gets traded to a team that needs a starting point guard, and even if Marbury is getting 34 minutes a night, and even if he isn’t rusty from not playing in games, and even if he isn’t out of shape from not practicing, he still will probably only put up stats as valuable as a 2007 Rafer Alston. That’s not much of an upside. Throw in the fact that Marbury may or may not be a jerk, why are we even wasting our time talking about this guy? Seriously. Drop him if he is on your team, and stop searching for him at Rotoworld if he isn’t. I declare, nay, I decree Starbury to be, forevermore, irrelevant.
Suggested Reading:
Marbury is scrambling for ridiculous ways to try to stay in shape.
Impetus for searches – Injury. When is Williams going to be back? Can I start him for my Week 3 H2H matchup?
There is some bad news – It is increasingly likely that Williams, who hurt his ankle on October 18th, will be out of the lineup for closer to 4-6 weeks, which is more than double the original two-week estimate. If true, then Williams wouldn’t be back until sometime between November 15th and November 29th.
But ultimately, the news is good – It is possible you will only need to wait one additional week, and then you be once again enjoying the statistic goodness of Mr. Williams. Be patient.
Impetus for searches – Trade. How will Iverson’s trade to Detroit effect his value?
There is some bad news – When you search for Iverson in Rotoworld, the search results reveal two options: AI, and Brad Iverson (BI), the quarterback-turned-wide receiver of the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. BI and AI are not related. This news is really only bad news to BI, who has been secretly hoping that AI was his older brother. BI’s younger brother, Chad (CI) was also disappointed to discover AI was no relation.
But ultimately, the news is good – Joe Dumars has a pretty good track record for enabling his players to be sucessful, and AI owners have to feel pretty confident that AI will play well with the Pistons. Devin Harris did score a career high 38 points against AI, but don’t read too much into that. Iverson, who is 33 years old, may not approach the 26.4 points a game he scored last year, he’ll certainly score more than the 18.7 he was averaging at the beginning of this year before the trade. The 24 he scored in his debut sounds about right.
Impetus for searches – Injury. When will he return to the court?
There is some bad news – Redd has already missed three games. While the injury is being called day-to-day, it is possible the injury is more serious than first reported.
But ultimately, the news is good – After initially scaring owners everywhere by calling his injury a “high” ankle sprain, it appears that the injury is just a regular sprain. He not the safest Week 3 start for owners in weekly H2H leagues. Be sure to check Rotoworld for updates before setting your lineup for the week.
Suggested Reading:
If you find yourself forgetting how good Redd is, watch this.
1. (Tie) Mike Dunleavy
Impetus for searches – Injured. When will Dunleavy get back on the court?
There is some good news – The Pacers, as of last week, were saying that Dunleavy might be back in two weeks. In the last week, however, that estimate has been abandoned. His current return date is indefinite, but if you are a T.J. Ford owner, you can at least feel good knowing that Ford has taken it upon himself to replace Dunleavy’s nineteen points per game.
But ultimately, the news is bad – Tendonitis. That’s what the Pacers are calling Dunleavy’s knee injury. Tendonitis, complicated by a bone spur. The injury has not shown improvement, and coach Jim O’Brien has expressed his concern, as has Dunleavy himself. There are three possible options, and two of them are bad: 1. Dunleavy heals and is playing in a few weeks or so. 2. Dunleavy’s tendonitis is chronic, and he never gets fully healthy all year. 3. Dunleavy, after realizing that the knee isn’t getting better, decides to have surgery. If you are a Dunleavy owner, you can’t drop him yet, and he has no trade value. Your best bet is just to hold onto him and to keep monitoring his status.
Suggested Reading:
Dunleavy can’t say when he’ll be back: “Fans, teammates and even his wife have been in his ear about a return date from his right knee injury.”
